<t>Tripitaka, that is my way of reasoning as well initially, except assuming binomial distribution I get 1/16 1/4 3/8 1/4 1/16 right away. I also got surprised, but I’ll tell you even more: the probability of 3 ups in a row is the same as 3 down of course, the same as 1st up, 2nd down and 3rd up aga...