- April 23rd, 2010, 11:56 am
- Forum: Student Forum
- Topic: Settle a Bet - Heston Model
- Replies:
**5** - Views:
**28718**

<r>I'm thinking of making the other party buy me these:<URL url="http://www.allenedmonds.com/aeonline/product_6486225_1_40000000001_-1?categoryId=120552&top_category=120552As"><LINK_TEXT text="http://www.allenedmonds.com/aeonline/pr ... y=120552As">http://www.allenedmonds.com/aeonline/product_64...

- April 22nd, 2010, 3:16 pm
- Forum: Student Forum
- Topic: Settle a Bet - Heston Model
- Replies:
**5** - Views:
**28718**

<t>Without going into why this was disputed, I believe the following is true:The Heston model will produce the same option prices if one multiplies the vol of vol (sigma) and correlation of z1 and z2 by -1 with all other variables being held constant.In other words, the model is the same when using:...

- February 11th, 2010, 1:10 pm
- Forum: Technical Forum
- Topic: skewness/kurtosis time scaling
- Replies:
**11** - Views:
**34785**

<t>If it helps, I did try this will Monte-Carlo simulations of T-distributed returns (say, with 5 or 10 degrees of freedom).The square root rule held for the daily to weekly volatility.For kurtosis, the 1/N rule was pretty close.For five dof:Daily Kurtosis: 5.25Weekly Kurtosis: 1.116Of course, the r...

- February 9th, 2010, 3:01 pm
- Forum: Economics Forum
- Topic: Homo Economicus
- Replies:
**43** - Views:
**47623**

<r>As someone who is more or less trained as an economist, I'll take a stab at this.1) Most economists do not have a math fetish. However, it is the easiest tool available to keep ones logic straight. Some of the best papers and models employ very little math. Hotellings model of location is a goo...

- February 5th, 2010, 1:15 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: The most foolish theorem ever...
- Replies:
**134** - Views:
**45085**

<t>What does it mean to be purely financed by debt? Equity is the residual claim on the firm, but if there is no equity then debt now controls the residual claim on all assets and cash flows.In other words, in a corporate structure, debt cannot exist without equity (ignoring a firm that is in a bank...

- January 5th, 2010, 5:58 pm
- Forum: Technical Forum
- Topic: Delta in Variance Swaps
- Replies:
**10** - Views:
**40695**

<t>Intraday there is a delta if your variance swap is being marked based on daily movements.If you were long the swap and mid-day the product was trading higher, then you would profit if the underlying continued to move up and, if the underlying moved down from its intraday price then you would be g...

- November 18th, 2009, 5:34 pm
- Forum: Programming and Software Forum
- Topic: constrained optimisation
- Replies:
**10** - Views:
**35255**

<t>For these types of problems, I always found it better to transform variables and use unconstrained Nelder-Mead/Powell.For any parameter that must be positive, let the optimizer choose the log of the variable.For a number that needs to be [-1,1], let the optimizer use any real number. Transform it...

- November 5th, 2009, 3:21 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: The US deficit myth
- Replies:
**67** - Views:
**39183**

<t>What would interesting is if one could get an estimate of residual value implied by these spreads. In the past, there has been positive recovery rates for sovereign debt from 30% in Argentina to 70% in the Ukraine.If there is reasonably high implied recovery rate, then these spreads implied a pre...

- November 4th, 2009, 10:02 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: The US deficit myth
- Replies:
**67** - Views:
**39183**

<t>The question is this: given the debt load of the US, how can we explain the CDS market's spreads?5 CDS spreads:Germany: 20.7USA: 22.9UK: 52.4Japan: 63.5Spain: 72.7China: 82.2Brazil: 132.7Ireland: 144.4Russia: 188.8Three possible answers:1) The market believes that the US is still relatively credi...

- October 23rd, 2009, 8:32 pm
- Forum: The Quantitative Finance FAQs Project
- Topic: What are the stupidest things people have said about risk neutrality?
- Replies:
**40** - Views:
**88425**

<t>Hopefully my brain is working correctly, but isn't this statement incorrect?"If the current market underprices the underlying, then risk-neutrality will underprice the call and, by put-call parity it will also underprice the put."If the market is truly underpricing the underlying, wouldn't this m...

- October 16th, 2009, 1:16 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: Real live example of testing and monitoring cointegration for pair strategy
- Replies:
**9** - Views:
**36098**

<r>If memory serves me, if you use the two step method of testing the residuals, you will need to use different critical values than if you were just testing for a time series being I(0). The values can be found in Engle and Granger 1987. But I think the last slide of this pdf is correct:<URL url="h...

- July 23rd, 2009, 1:39 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: Find the moral frequency
- Replies:
**9** - Views:
**37455**

Liquidity is added to the system not because you can transact at high speeds but because you can cancel/remove orders at high speeds. You can feel more confident in your current order/quote if you have the ability to quickly change your mind. My opinion of course.

- July 20th, 2009, 7:18 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: fx implied volatility
- Replies:
**9** - Views:
**54524**

<r>Could the use of implied betas help? Not really sure if this technique is applicable here.<URL url="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1416753"><LINK_TEXT text="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=1416753">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1416753</LINK...

- June 18th, 2009, 7:24 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: Share terminal value!
- Replies:
**26** - Views:
**41212**

<t>My point is that having a random component does not equate to risk. If you use a CAPM type model then the beta for your biotech firm is zero. Its discount rate is thus equal to the risk-free rate. If God told that if coin flip resulted in one of the following:1) Firm goes bankrupt but the economy...

- June 18th, 2009, 4:58 pm
- Forum: General Forum
- Topic: Share terminal value!
- Replies:
**26** - Views:
**41212**

<t>I'm a bit late to this, but are you discussing the right terminal value? In other words, for pricing stocks one could use DCF which requires an estimate of a terminal value. One might use the standard formula of:(CF(t-1) * (1 + g)) / (Discount Rate - g)Also, in the biotech example the current val...

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