SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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by Paul
April 6th, 2020, 4:20 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Positive wilmotting
Replies: 1280
Views: 50773

Re: Positive wilmotting

A Happy and Healthy New Tax Year to everyone in the UK!
by Paul
April 6th, 2020, 4:18 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: RIP thread
Replies: 119
Views: 14403

Re: RIP thread

Honor Blackman

Not coronavirus! Yay!

Still RIP
by Paul
April 6th, 2020, 5:33 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Stupid question of the day
Replies: 2219
Views: 147996

Re: Stupid question of the day

Hypothetically, if a Prime Minister, say, is at death's door do they prepare the country like a relative might be prepared? I.e. told the truth but gently. Or do they say everything is fine right until the very end while hoping for the best?
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 9:30 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 779
Views: 77467

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

12. Why don't you ask uncle Google? ;-) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf That's dated 16 March, so they rely on China a lot (bad) but also South Korea (good). Have they updated it? I assume so. ...
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 9:15 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 779
Views: 77467

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Boris hospital now 
Viral load? We might lose politicians, Royals, health workers, bus drivers, anyone who socialized a lot until recently, etc. Antisocials, like me, will be fine.
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 8:53 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 779
Views: 77467

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

12. Easy...Because I’m very good at delegating!
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 7:19 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 779
Views: 77467

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

What do we actually know? Not much. 1. Numbers in China probably wrong 2. Politics getting in the way of everything 3. What are the Imperial College assumptions? 4. What is their model? 5. Where do they get their parameters from? 6. Ditto Oxford 7. What are the strategies in each country? 8. How are...
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 6:05 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 132
Views: 3130

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

Corporate lawyers doing well then. 
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 5:18 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Economic suspension
Replies: 11
Views: 306

Re: Economic suspension

The Governments/controlling entities would have to agree on essential/non-essential, and we'd all be dead by the time western countries agreed that Financial institutions aren't "essential", if at all. Those being in a fragile state wouldn't be able to cope.  Normally I would totally agree! Look at...
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 5:12 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19 - analytics
Replies: 13
Views: 643

Re: Models for Covid-19 - analytics

I'm better with Google than I am with Lambda calculus. Mathematics Association of America: solution I found this chart:  https://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/images/cms_upload/sir159072.gif It expresses in terms of fractions of the population: s(t) =  the susceptible fraction of individuals, i(t...
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 4:35 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 132
Views: 3130

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

Deaths from flu.  Deaths from influenza 1.png 2020 not so special here. (But it does look that a hot planet is better. For all sorts of reasons.) People are undoubtedly dying from pneumonia, and that is being attributed to Covid-19. Whether they died from or with is the question. People are undoubte...
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 4:33 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 132
Views: 3130

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

Is it officially global warming now? I thought it was called climate change. (Hedging bets!)
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 4:14 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 132
Views: 3130

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

I'm trying to save lives here! You are determined to kill people off!
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 12:38 am
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Economic suspension
Replies: 11
Views: 306

Re: Economic suspension

(I excluded energy!) I don't know how much oil/energy Japan needs . I am sure they and everyone else want  plenty! Random website:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption  There are some quite civilized countries that don't use all that much energy. The US is not ...
by Paul
April 5th, 2020, 12:15 am
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Economic suspension
Replies: 11
Views: 306

Re: Economic suspension

(I did say 'global.')

How much trade is happening now? Much coming in from China? How much is critical? Is having the latest iPhone worth a depression worse than the 1930s? Need versus want. Food + shelter + water + tin opener is where I'm heading!

It's like putting the planet into an induced coma!
GZIP: On