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by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 5:19 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 146
Views: 6532

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

South Korea: COVID-19 Cases = 10,000 Tests = 500,000 (my estimate) 2% of people have the virus Population = 50,000,000 Possible number of cases = 0.02 x 50,000,000 = 1,000,000 All causes of death Deaths per day all causes = 800  https://www.statista.com/statistics/621091/south-korea-total-death-rat...
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 4:54 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 146
Views: 6532

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

Where can we find real-time, actual (not estimated) death stats for all causes? Just because of the "died from" vs "died with" debate.
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 4:30 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19 - analytics
Replies: 5
Views: 252

Re: Models for Covid-19 - analytics

Random thoughts: Is it better to have simpler model for in-household infection? Integers? Or assume everyone infected? So only two types of household? Depends on timescales (in-house and outhouse). In our household only one person goes out to shop. Suggests to me that there is an optimum household s...
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 4:25 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

You can ignore my posts if you find them problematic. Kind of. I call it requirements drift. Or do want to change  Paul's initial SIRHD requirements in mid-stream? I recommend your first writing the analytic ODE on the COVID-19 analytic thread and then jump into code. But I do like SEIRHD.. I can e...
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 4:21 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

Update #4. [$]N = 10, \alpha = 2, \beta = 0[$] remarks 1. All households (initial conditions) have same behaviour => duplicate curves. An aggregated model on the way, Paul? 2. The effects of the Heaviside-like threshold function seem to be kicking in. 3. I don't know how to interpret the output, le...
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 12:59 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 146
Views: 6532

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

I bought Philips oxygen concentrator when it was all starting. It possibly gives me a slightly higher chance of recovering from pneumonia.
That was smart. I'm beginning to think my days on Pornhub were wasted.
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 12:43 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

Quick implementation of SEIHR in Python (no differentiation between households and other yet): import numpy as np from scipy.integrate import odeint import matplotlib.pyplot as plt N = 6.6e6 #population size N_INFECTED = N/1e3 def covid19(x,t):          a1 = 0.1/14*100 #probability of contracting f...
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 12:38 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 146
Views: 6532

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

Ventilator advice, please.

1. Hair dryer

2. Leaf blower

3. Small child + bicycle + old-fashioned bellows
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 12:34 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 40
Views: 1817

Re: Gallows humour

"In the future, everyone will be an epidemiologist for 15 minutes (before dying a horrible death, gasping for air)."
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 12:32 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

If you set to zero all parameters responsible for recovery then without quarantine you can get the whole population infected from a single case. With quarantine only that household gets infected. So no, it's not just a parameter change. Or rather it's not a parameter change in that limiting case. I...
by Paul
March 28th, 2020, 12:29 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

If you set to zero all parameters responsible for recovery then without quarantine you can get the whole population infected from a single case. With quarantine only that household gets infected. So no, it's not just a parameter change. Or rather it's not a parameter change in that limiting case. I...
by Paul
March 27th, 2020, 11:29 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 146
Views: 6532

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

It's the self employed with young children that I feel sorry for.

Damn, that's me.
by Paul
March 27th, 2020, 10:02 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

BTW, in one of my projects last year I used the Bayesian optimisation to find parameters of a model of a computer virus in the computer network. The model was a realistic microsimulation of the country internet infrastructure, including behavioural data on different users' behaviours, and the virus...
by Paul
March 27th, 2020, 9:59 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5400

Re: Models for Covid-19

I tried to use realistic parameters based on available data and medical reports that I read daily, but I didn't research it thoroughly - they might have changed. That's why I plan to put the model in an optimiser to fit the params to data trends. First I want to remove some unrealistic assumptions ...
by Paul
March 27th, 2020, 9:56 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 49
Views: 1145

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

Someone's having a good time!
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