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by tw
February 13th, 2020, 11:40 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 854
Views: 85347

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

We will all be like Dr Rieux soon.



Image
by tw
February 13th, 2020, 11:36 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 854
Views: 85347

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Why be surprised? It's just a bunch of simple differential equations. SIR is for diseases with lifelong immunity, that's why it's used to design vaccination programs (re improving policies). Intrigued, not surprised. Since, in the basic model , the quantity I (the #infected) multiplies each term, t...
by tw
February 12th, 2020, 1:40 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 854
Views: 85347

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

In SIR the Rs are both dead and recovered+immune I.e. can’t cause any more infections. In going from R to number dead is the easy bit! You need SIR plus a transition matrix for travel between airports plus diffusion in space. It’s just a credit risk model! Corid19 low mortality but long quarantine ...
by tw
February 12th, 2020, 12:20 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 854
Views: 85347

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Fibonacci says that it begins to flatten (this model doesn't have any sense) nCov-Fibonacci-forecast.png Why not just use linear regression? I don't know about everyone else, but the theoretical question that intrigues me is, if using standard epidemiology assumptions what would be the aysmptotic p...
by tw
February 11th, 2020, 4:15 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: God Hates Ireland ? Land of the Sodomite Damned
Replies: 913
Views: 111521

Re: God Hates Ireland ? Land of the Sodomite Damned

DUP's Foster claims Sinn Fein election victory was 'protest vote' about health and housing, not Irish unity https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/dups-foster-claims-sinn-fein-election-victory-was-protest-vote-about-health-and-housing-not-irish-unity-38941943.html I agree with Arlene Foster. D...
by tw
February 10th, 2020, 12:30 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 3451
Views: 171387

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

People, you need to say farewell to bearish. He is in Stage 4, it's terminal. Believing that Twitter, the BBC, etc. are far right is the symptom to be most feared. Umm, awkwardly, that may be closer to the truth than you probably intended. But, back on topic, I don’t recall picking on the BBC at al...
by tw
February 8th, 2020, 7:09 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Apocalypse (Revelation) Biblical explanation.
Replies: 153
Views: 9922

Re: Apocalypse (Revelation) Biblical explanation.

Remember what Christopher Hitchens said about lobster and champagne! No, what did Christopher Hitchens say about lobster and champagne? Furthermore, who is  Christopher Hitchens? I'm moving in the wrong circles. He was a British American journalist who wrote for The New Yorker, The Atlantic, The Ti...
by tw
February 7th, 2020, 8:47 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Are You Ready for Some Rugby?
Replies: 104
Views: 12551

Re: Are You Ready for Some Rugby?

I think Wales will be too strong. I'm not in the country but I suppose people are getting used to a new coach. I reckon he should do OK. At least it is not the impish Eddie Jones..................................... I can't get to see the match because it is not on BBC.  Good to hear Farrell is not...
by tw
February 7th, 2020, 8:09 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Are You Ready for Some Rugby?
Replies: 104
Views: 12551

Re: Are You Ready for Some Rugby?

 unpermitted Titi's in a built up area are a clear danger 

what do you think about wales vs. ire?  how are the Irish fans taking to Farrell (senior)? 
by tw
February 6th, 2020, 6:21 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Tesla vs. the Shorts
Replies: 13
Views: 2403

Re: Tesla vs. the Shorts

Speaking of analogies with bitcoin, BTC is famous for the "Bart Simpson" chart pattern, created today in TSLA (bottom chart), and above that, the pattern in BTC:  tradingview_btcusd_chart_bart_pattern.png TSLA_5.png I grabbed the BTC chart from:  https://beincrypto.com/what-causes-the-infamous-bitc...
by tw
February 6th, 2020, 10:14 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: RIP thread
Replies: 127
Views: 16667

Re: RIP thread

RIP the father of the Gordon Gekko, 103 is quite an achievement!
RIP.  I thought he was brilliant as Einar in The Vikings.
What do the Scandinavians make of that Hollywood version of the glory years?

Odin's test.
by tw
February 5th, 2020, 4:27 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 3451
Views: 171387

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Bloomberg has an argument here: "Hey, at least my software works!"
only after you hit "Help help" and waste three hours of your life getting passed between 3 experts.
by tw
February 5th, 2020, 2:54 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Tesla vs. the Shorts
Replies: 13
Views: 2403

Re: Tesla vs. the Shorts

tw, short interest only with commons. (afaik). Every short holder (through their broker) have to report their short position twice a month (increase or decrease). Thanks!  So how would you characterise what is going on?  The most shorted stock ever gets even more shorted but the price keeps going u...
by tw
February 5th, 2020, 12:27 am
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Tesla vs. the Shorts
Replies: 13
Views: 2403

Re: Tesla vs. the Shorts

Speaking of "one short stops out", I will admit to an unsuccessful short attempt today. Shorted 10 shares at $915, stopped out at $945 (well, really just capitulated, didn't have an actual stop) -- so never made it 'till the selloff at the close. Oh well. Looking back, I had a nice (profitable) cov...
by tw
February 4th, 2020, 2:51 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Tesla vs. the Shorts
Replies: 13
Views: 2403

Re: Tesla vs. the Shorts

Following finviz the short interest in BABA is 12.44% so it is the most shorted stock. Do these stock shorting figures have the equivalent of OI in them? If one short stops out and buys back from several others, (but the stock lender is the same) does that get reported as an increase in open intere...
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