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by trackstar
March 28th, 2020, 7:18 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 160
Views: 7798

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

New test device announced by Abbott Labs - the size of a toaster - delivers positive results in 5 minutes, negative results in 13 minutes. Will go out to clinics next week. Can’t say anything about accuracy, but at least R&D efforts and production are moving fast. https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/293276...
by trackstar
March 28th, 2020, 3:17 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: trackstar's Needle Exchange
Replies: 162
Views: 25326

Re: trackstar's Needle Exchange

There's a plethora of solutions to the insect dilemma. Almost any longterm farmer, who's resisted pesticides, has a solution derived from experimentation. Do you have access to knowledgeable farmers in your area?  I remember visiting a 3 acre organic farm ("Organik" was the name) in Llanogrande, Co...
by trackstar
March 28th, 2020, 1:23 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: trackstar's Needle Exchange
Replies: 162
Views: 25326

Re: trackstar's Needle Exchange

Went to the local farm stand early this morning (yes, I broke my own |quarantine| briefly, but I do have N95 masks now). Good to support the local growers and store was well-stocked.  Also some roses - so far, so good here (seemingly) and back in the fortress now. As before, I wish you all a good we...
by trackstar
March 28th, 2020, 1:03 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 160
Views: 7798

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

Ventilator advice, please. 1. Hair dryer 2. Leaf blower 3. Small child + bicycle + old-fashioned bellows 4. Pulse oximeter, oxygen tank(s) with piece of plastic tubing, sturdy plastic bag, duct tape, cloth ties to gently fasten bag over your head and around your neck. Ideally you would have a foot ...
by trackstar
March 27th, 2020, 10:58 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: trackstar's Needle Exchange
Replies: 162
Views: 25326

Re: trackstar's Needle Exchange

Not to be alarmist, but here is a concern we have discussed a little bit previously: The Workers Who Supply the World’s Food Are Starting to Get Sick - Bloomberg March 27 So you may have laughed or scoffed at my "ambitious" post a few days ago, but we are starting our indoors plantings this weekend....
by trackstar
March 27th, 2020, 7:11 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: trackstar's Needle Exchange
Replies: 162
Views: 25326

Re: trackstar's Needle Exchange

No long tales or dark humor today, but if you understand military jargon, I am "present and accounted for."

Wish you all a good weekend, as much as possible.
by trackstar
March 27th, 2020, 12:15 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19


Clean the decks, actually. I agree with the legendary Fred Brooks (father of IBM 360, before everyone's here time, lol). 
Start again!
Well, time is circular, is it not?
One more picture, for the road - patron saints of code
Enjoy your weekend!
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 10:42 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Why are they so coy with their maths?
for the same reason that men are so coy with their XX,000 lines of code or their gigantic C and Fortran libraries from ancient times.

They need someone else to come in and tidy things up a bit?
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 10:34 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Link? Paper link discussed on Twitter is here at IC:   The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression - Report 12 March 26 2020 and https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf ...
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 9:51 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 768
Views: 76923

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Some more data from the US - which states, counties, and cities have issued Stay at Home orders? Interactive Map  New York Times March 26 "This means at least 200 million people in 21 states, 47 counties and 14 cities are being urged to stay home... The result is a patchwork of local and state direc...
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 7:44 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

That's what these models are. See Wilmott & Orrell.
very good. carry on!
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 7:34 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Just thinking out loud, but would developing a credit default model where default=Hospitalization (or death) be useful? Besides having a well elaborated set of models to chose from, with good literature, It also might help to evaluate systemic effects. Eg too many defaults means hospitals are overwh...
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 7:12 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 99
Views: 2338

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

18. Inspiration from others

Just got back from a brisk trail run. Not a marathon, but very enjoyable.

Also, for our data collection - I isolated completely (except for one trip to an ATM machine) starting last Thursday.

So, one week down and let’s say one to go. Then we’ll see what is what. : )
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 4:04 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 41
Views: 2268

Re: Gallows humour

Here is my new logo!

  Image


Take care, folks. It's going to get worse before it gets better. But the data, diverse policies, and public reactions are interesting.
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 3:34 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 99
Views: 2338

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

9. Discovery of how fast air pollution clears, given extreme changes and reductions in human behavior and industrial activity. Examples: Map of NO2 emissions over Europe https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2020-03/processed/map-for-no2-levels-over-europe_1_1024.jpg   and China: https://image.cnbcfm....
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