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by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 10:38 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: trackstar's Needle Exchange
Replies: 162
Views: 25326

Re: trackstar's Needle Exchange

This could go on the Humour thread, but we are not heading for the Gallows yet, so... My sister has been studying up, as I have, on small scale agriculture and she sent this list to me yesterday - what she can grow on her property this year: "Using my barn bed and the hill - both are ideal: Tomatoes...
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 9:14 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?
Replies: 768
Views: 76923

Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Useful article In Forbes this morning - restates some of what we know, but also a chart comparing flu, Covid, SARS, and MERS with some data.  Done in “bio render.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/03/26/ending-social-distancing-for-covid-19-will-create-a-worst-case-scenario/#1686cf7...
by trackstar
March 26th, 2020, 1:38 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Very nice modeling effort there.  Still able to supply data if and when useful. If data is not that useful on this thread, please advise - fine for me to put it on Pandemic Model thread in OT instead. Some notes on current state in US:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spre...
by trackstar
March 25th, 2020, 1:17 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Is the cure worse than the disease?
Replies: 35
Views: 1411

Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

People are doing things only because of anxiety. How many people are able to just do nothing? It's just too scary for them. I have been thinking about the problem of screaming children and angry spouses.  I have no experience with this, but had an idea.  See if it is helpful. Designate one room of ...
by trackstar
March 25th, 2020, 12:18 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Information on possible longevity of virus on surfaces: Looks like 17 days, based on research on now-empty cruise ships. CDC report cited and linked here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html “ Researchers looked ...
by trackstar
March 25th, 2020, 12:17 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 41
Views: 2268

Re: Gallows humour


Scotland and Ireland are at the top of my list if crossing borders for "nonessential" reasons ever becomes feasible again.
I'm the expert on borders around here. 

crossing borders
verb noun, noun verb? Careful now.
Ah, I thought you would go after non-essential

Eg ok - define it

Haha!
by trackstar
March 24th, 2020, 11:25 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 41
Views: 2268

Re: Gallows humour

Follow up: I had an email earlier from my kilt maker. They are now closed.  Well, that's alright - live to fight another day! I've been looking over my collection of travel photos today.  Scotland and Ireland are at the top of my list if crossing borders for "nonessential" reasons ever becomes feas...
by trackstar
March 24th, 2020, 11:00 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 41
Views: 2268

Re: Gallows humour

From my sister today. Scotland, forever!
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 11:46 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?
Replies: 160
Views: 7792

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

A vase of flowers and a chess set. : D That is enough mischievous behavior for one day. Sad for those who have passed on and their families. But isolation is fun - lots of rest, looking through old collections of things, and creativity. Good thing too because now heading into stay at home mode offic...
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 7:18 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 41
Views: 2268

Re: Gallows humour

London Bridge - Fergie When it comes to the Virus, step aside Share your masks, don't be standing in the line VIP, 'cause you know we gotta shine I'm Negative and me love you long time. All the nurses get down on the floor  Back to back, drop it down real low  I'm just a lady, but isolatin' like a ...
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 7:10 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gallows humour
Replies: 41
Views: 2268

Re: Gallows humour

How is your toilet paper holding out, boys? Have you build bidets for yourselves yet? : ) Here is a comparison to help with the CAD engineering diagrams you will probably fool around with first.  So happy I started storing up essential supplies (ice cream, gloves, condoms, and liquor too!) in *Janua...
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 4:52 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Perhaps use SARS (with caution) as a similar case and make adjustments? Also able to produce individual models using the cruise ships, China as longest duration study and includes a tight lockdown, and Washington state as a case where it enters into a frail, elderly population in institutional sett...
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 4:43 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

OK then, I am now setting up the MSEIR ODE model in C++ as here, I hope to get back in a few days. Since I am not a epidemologist, I will need your support to tell  what the ODE parameters are and their values (e.g. for chickenpox, the infectious period [$]1/\gamma[$] is 6 months, etc.)  From the H...
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 3:16 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

Perhaps use SARS (with caution) as a similar case and make adjustments? Also able to produce individual models using the cruise ships, China as longest duration study and includes a tight lockdown, and Washington state as a case where it enters into a frail, elderly population in institutional setti...
by trackstar
March 23rd, 2020, 2:48 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 237
Views: 6552

Re: Models for Covid-19

I am happy to say that @Microsoft and @GitHub are working with @Imperial_JIDEA and @MRC_Outbreak  to document, refactor and extend the code to allow others to use without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don’t have time to give)... - Neil Ferguson aka? a) don't ca...
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