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TinMan
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 17th, 2019, 7:37 pm

You are performing an optimization of an approximation to a non convex function, with the wrong function approximator, based on a finite sample of noisy observations.  The global minimum is overfit by definition.

Lack of robustness isn't cause by stochastic gradient descent.  If the problem is ill posed it's ill posed.

If you're worried about perturbed images then perturb the images in the training set.  If your fit is on a particular sample type why expect it to extrapolate correctly?  How is that different from fitting a linear regression and extrapolating the line of best fit?

Ethics?  Where's the ethics in linear regression software?  There's vast swathes of influential and dishonest propaganda based on regression which affects enormous numbers of people based on spurious regressions.

Where's the ethics in significance testing?  No statistics textbook is complete without examples of doctors not understanding p values or Bayes rule.

Psychology?  The journals and popular psychology books are full of results that don't replicate.  Most of their results are false.  Taleb had a recent argument with some of them on twitter, and none of them actually understand correlation to a first year stats level.

The ethics issue is a red herring.  That's a political battle among the usual technocrats and rent seekers.

 
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 17th, 2019, 8:26 pm

Lack of robustness isn't cause by stochastic gradient descent.  If the problem is ill posed it's ill posed.
OK, ill-posed is a good start. BTW what is ill-posed. precisely, ill-posed != well-posed?
I'll have a look at Yuan et al but it seems to me that the issues are caused by perturbations of GD , see eq. (5). You can find adversarial examples by perturbing GD a little. That's my understanding.

There must be something better than (S)GD?
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 18th, 2019, 5:41 pm

Ethics?  Where's the ethics in linear regression software? 
Linear regression never did no one no harm. More worrying is Big Brother and the Police State.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 19th, 2019, 10:20 am

So, tons of people are learning how to code now. What happens in a few decades when there are millions of us that can code?

In 5 years time, how many developers  will know and use ML in their applications?
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 21st, 2019, 2:13 pm

Facebook’s chief AI scientist: Deep learning may need a new programming language

https://venturebeat.com/2019/02/18/face ... -language/

Well, who wudda thought that?
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 21st, 2019, 3:53 pm

Another point: AI has been 'sold' to upper management. I just hope the AI developers can deliver.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

February 28th, 2019, 1:50 pm

Can this graph predict the future?

Image
 
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rmax
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

April 24th, 2019, 12:22 pm

Interesting to read page 1 of this thread again.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

April 26th, 2019, 10:39 am

Interesting to read page 1 of this thread again.
No one forecast the unstoppable rise of Python and AI.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: FIVE years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2023?

April 27th, 2019, 2:29 pm

Coursera raises $103 million to prepare online learners for the ‘fourth industrial revolution’

https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/25/cour ... evolution/


It’s against this backdrop that online education platforms are expected to grow from a $4 billion industry today to a hefty $21 billion market by 2023. 

I wonder which estimation tools they use. BTW 2023 is about in 5 years time. With a relatively small investment such a yuge ROI can be generated.

And all thanks to gradient descent?
 
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