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Cuchulainn
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 27th, 2015, 7:45 pm

C#
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katastrofa
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 12:17 am

I think it's pretty sure after today's Microsoft conference that they will have an important role in shaping such a landscape. We will probably soon have VS for Linux! (And I finally don't feel so socially unadjusted because of using vi/vim.) I bought MSFT some time after they started giving away VS Community edition for free... ISWYDT, Mr Nadella :-)
 
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 12:46 am

Smartphones now outsell PCs more than 3:1 (1000 million per year and climbing vs 300 million per year and falling).Microsoft is not going to go down without a fight, but I have to wonder whether they will be the next IBM or Digital Equipment Corp. Mainframes were displaced by minicomputers. Minicomputers were displaced by PCs. PCs will be (are being) displaced by smartphones, phablets, & tablets. Microsoft and the PC makers might claim that smartphones can't do what PCs can do but that line of logic was just as true (and just as false) during the mainframe to mini and mini to PC changeovers.No doubt, Microsoft & Windows will be around for a long time but their marketshare in personal computing devices will drop.
 
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 6:31 am

QuoteMicrosoft is not going to go down without a fight, but I have to wonder whether they will be the next IBM or Digital Equipment CorpDEC used to be my daily bread. Great company and great products.The DEC decline was self-inflicted (Ken Olsen made some huge mistakes).IBM almost suffered the same fate but it pulled itself from the brink.I hope they have C# for Linux.
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Traden4Alpha
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 6:39 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteMicrosoft is not going to go down without a fight, but I have to wonder whether they will be the next IBM or Digital Equipment CorpDEC used to be my daily bread. Great company and great products.The DEC decline was self-inflicted (Ken Olsen made some huge mistakes).IBM almost suffered the same fate but it pulled itself from the brink.Indeed. DEC was a good company but like Silicon Graphics, Sun, Wang, Data General, Convex, Apollo, etc. they were on the wrong side of the repeated technology trend by which smaller machines kill larger machines.IBM reinvented itself and even dumped the PC business.
 
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 7:08 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: outrunlet me get my glasses Edit: ah! It's a plug! Strange...Have you tried SpecSavers?
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 12:52 pm

@Cuchulainn MS will have C# for Linux soon. I'm not a programmer (I also don't consider using Python, R or Matlab to be programming), but I mostly use C++ and this is determined by clients' preferences in the first place. MS sort of revived C++ software development (which was probably a part of their competition with Google/Android) and is still betting on it. I doubt they will offer an alternative to IntelliJ, they will rather meet together at C#. So much for my speculations (they brought me over 10% gain so far)... As for the whole web development bullshit, I hope it will go down the drain where its place is :-)
 
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 4:02 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaSmartphones now outsell PCs more than 3:1 (1000 million per year and climbing vs 300 million per year and falling).Microsoft is not going to go down without a fight, but I have to wonder whether they will be the next IBM or Digital Equipment Corp. Mainframes were displaced by minicomputers. Minicomputers were displaced by PCs. PCs will be (are being) displaced by smartphones, phablets, & tablets. Microsoft and the PC makers might claim that smartphones can't do what PCs can do but that line of logic was just as true (and just as false) during the mainframe to mini and mini to PC changeovers.No doubt, Microsoft & Windows will be around for a long time but their marketshare in personal computing devices will drop.One point (more in the "thinking out loud" department -- haven't formed a definite conclusion, yet): Isn't the aforementioned (relative) outselling merely a reflection of the PC market's saturation -- and the relative lack of saturation of the smartphone market (thus far)?If so, this may not be a trend that's going to continue, but just another f'>0 & f''<0 adoption curve that may be already diminishing (for the same reasons):QuoteOn an annualized basis, global smartphone growth slowed to 21 percent from 33 percent, reflecting increased penetration and maturity of key markets like China, U.S., and Europe.// http://www.computerworld.com/article/29 ... t.htmlEdit: Here's one more data point: http://www.computerworld.com/article/28 ... .htmlQuote Shipments of all tablets worldwide will increase by just 7.2 percent this year, compared to 52.5 percent in 2013, according to a projection from research firm IDC. Tablet shipments this year will total 235.7 million.The numbers reflect widespread reliance on PCs and smartphones for computing and communicating. Buying trends show that consumers and businesses still look to run full-fledged applications on PCs, which have experienced a jump in sales recently. Thoughts?
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Traden4Alpha
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 4:45 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: PolterQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaSmartphones now outsell PCs more than 3:1 (1000 million per year and climbing vs 300 million per year and falling).Microsoft is not going to go down without a fight, but I have to wonder whether they will be the next IBM or Digital Equipment Corp. Mainframes were displaced by minicomputers. Minicomputers were displaced by PCs. PCs will be (are being) displaced by smartphones, phablets, & tablets. Microsoft and the PC makers might claim that smartphones can't do what PCs can do but that line of logic was just as true (and just as false) during the mainframe to mini and mini to PC changeovers.No doubt, Microsoft & Windows will be around for a long time but their marketshare in personal computing devices will drop.One point (more in the "thinking out loud" department -- haven't formed a definite conclusion, yet): Isn't the aforementioned (relative) outselling merely a reflection of the PC market's saturation -- and the relative lack of saturation of the smartphone market (thus far)?If so, this may not be a trend that's going to continue, but just another f'>0 & f''<0 adoption curve that may be already diminishing (for the same reasons):QuoteOn an annualized basis, global smartphone growth slowed to 21 percent from 33 percent, reflecting increased penetration and maturity of key markets like China, U.S., and Europe.// http://www.computerworld.com/article/29 ... hts?That's a very good point. The PC markets in the developed world have certainly matured, the pace of clock speed advances have slowed, and the need to upgrade every few years has disappeared.Yet global PC sales should be growing quite rapidly with the expanding economies of China, India, Brazil, etc. I'd not be surprised if the number of households (and company job positions) that could/should afford a PC has doubled in the last decade or so (call it 600 million people in the US+EU going to 1.2 billion middle class consumers and employees in the broader world). Yet these new consumers and companies are not buying traditional PCs, they are going from no computer to a something in the smartphone-phablet-tablet range or an Android mini PC. And if one wants a desktop, then one can buy a smart stick dual-core Android PC for less than the $49 Windows tax and plug it right into the HDMI port of a TV. While no one was looking, thin-client computing has arrived with a mobile device front-end and cloud/web services backend. Sure, a full-fledged PC is better for some applications and will continue to sell at some lower level of volume, but these Android/iOS/Tizen/ChinaOS devices are good enough for a broad range of consumer and business applications. And once someone (or a company) has a "good enough" solution, upselling them to a completely different platform requiring new hardware and new software won't be easy for Microsoft and the old PC industry. Microsoft mostly sells backward compatibility but these new consumers and businesses have no PCs to be backward compatible to. P.S. I noticed that the page on the "tablet boom is over" also had a link to Users will soon opt first for smartphones and tablets, not laptops and PCs. The article notes that business users do occasionally need a larger screen for complex spreadsheets, graphics, etc. which is certainly true. Yet the trend toward "retina" displays on smartphones and tablets (e.g., a Samsung Galaxy S6 has a 2560 x 1440 display) implies that these devices have the graphics subsystems to drive large monitors. For 60-80 Euros one can get a quad core android smart stick that can drive a 4k display. This is exactly the same pattern that happened with minicomputers and PCs which started out too underpowered to directly compete with their larger forefathers but eventually reached competitive performance levels making the marginal utility of the larger legacy systems quite small especially in comparison to the higher cost of the older system.
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

April 30th, 2015, 11:47 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: outrunQuoteOriginally posted by: katastrofa As for the whole web development bullshit, I hope it will go down the drain where its place is :-)Doh!! You would die within 2 days without that. You mean you don't like HTML5, CSS, LESS, Yeoman, Boostrap, Modernizr, Foundation, Sencha Touch, Phonegap, jQuery, Angular, underscore, React, Node.js, bower, Python, Django, Flask, REST, PostgreSQL, MySQL, NoSQL, Hadoop, Github, REDIS, Docker, Heroku, EC2??And what about Pink Unicorns?Some of these are old classics (HTML,  CSS -- love it or hate it, JQuery), some I've never considered to be web applications (MySQL -- go back to the Shadow!, Hadoop -- failure, I think it will soon be replaced by things like Vertica and MS in-memory databases, the most innovative part about Github is good old git, Python /ni Django,  ...) and some are overhyped bullshit, which I'd never call innovative.I prefer kitten and cat animated gifs to pink unicorns.
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Three years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2018?

May 4th, 2015, 8:06 am

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