Serving the Quantitative Finance Community

 
User avatar
farmer
Topic Author
Posts: 61
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 1:15 am

I got the novel coronavirus back in January. It is totally a lung infection. It's mortality is totally dependent on how irritated, unhealthy, or inflamed your lungs already are. For that reason, because of the low smoking rate in the USA, and the clean indoor air, I estimate kill rate in the USA to be far under 0.5%. I wrote more about this elsewhere, but who gives a fuck, right? It is also a throat infection, but that is a complicating topic.
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 6604
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 1:31 am

Back from the dead!
 
User avatar
Collector
Posts: 2572
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm
Contact:

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 8:35 am

"Smoking and vaping increase risk of serious illness with coronavirus" Mayor Bill de Blasio

" got the novel coronavirus back in January. "

u know the subtype?
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 7440
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 6:02 pm

alpha&omega coronavirus-BS-over900
 
User avatar
farmer
Topic Author
Posts: 61
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 9:52 pm

I assume I had the slow/mild subtype. They never would have thought to test me for coronavirus. But they wanted to test me for THC, even though I said I didn't vape or smoke weed. Because a lot of people don't tell the hospital if they vape THC.

People come into the hospital with congested lungs. The hospital drowns them in albuterol which I believe is what they do for people who have immune overreaction to vaping. The albuterol causes their throat and larynx to swell up so they feel like they are choking. It can even compress the vagus nerve and temporarily stop your heart. That causes hemispheric and regional loss of consciousness, and in the end heart failure.

As a practical matter, they don't know how to treat coronavirus. Better to go to the Hilton and steam up the room with the shower than the hospital.
 
User avatar
farmer
Topic Author
Posts: 61
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 10:24 pm

One of the funner parts of coronavirus was when my heart stopped while I was driving from coughing after taking too much albuterol. I woke up and saw I had crashed through the fence of the largest cattle rancher in Florida. A Mexican ranch hand pulled off to ask me if I passed out. I did not know what caused me to pass out. My best guess was I had choked unconscious. So I hurried off to get more albuterol, on the false belief it would stop me from choking, when the opposite was true, it caused me to go unconscious. The witness reported me to the fence team, who chased me down on a country road waving a piece of my truck at me that stuck to the fence. I was unable to defend myself for not being able to speak without coughing to where I could not breath. Eventually they got the idea I was asphyxiated near death and left me alone.
 
User avatar
farmer
Topic Author
Posts: 61
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 10:55 pm

I see this thread has a lot of views. I don't know if that is just random Internet garbage. On the small chance people are actually curious to know what to make of this crisis, here is something. It is a somewhat overblown panic. Rush Limbaugh's instincts on this are good beyond what you or I can understand:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... rus-trump/

Just because something kills people in China, doesn't mean it is that bad.

Will USA smokers over 70 who already cough a lot die? Yes. And that is a a big deal. But you and I will not die, if you are not in that category.
 
User avatar
farmer
Topic Author
Posts: 61
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Re: coronavirus kill rate

March 11th, 2020, 11:02 pm

I contemplated whether a killoff of old people in countries where people smoke a lot (or don't control pollution) could actually help the stock market. My conclusion is the cost would far outweigh the benefit. It is devastating to have people die, at any age or financial condition, in any political payment system. It is worth more than cable TV or video games to have your relatives live. So even at a small kill rate, it will cost a ton. Because people don't know what to do. There is no flu shot or standard treatment protocol.
 
User avatar
farmer
Topic Author
Posts: 61
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Re: coronavirus kill rate

August 15th, 2020, 1:54 pm

Now we are getting to "Are people immune who already had the virus? Even with mutations?" The CDC mentioned a number, three months before antibodies decline. But I believe people are immune long after that. Basically, you don't get the virus a second time. But even if you did, who cares, it didn't kill you and the treatments are better developed.
 
User avatar
Collector
Posts: 2572
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm
Contact:

Re: coronavirus kill rate

August 16th, 2020, 7:01 pm

Immune T Cells May Offer Lasting Protection Against COVID-19

"Much of the study on the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, has focused on the production of antibodies. But, in fact, immune cells known as memory T cells also play an important role in the ability of our immune systems to protect us against many viral infections, including—it now appears—COVID-19."

I also wonder how many g Corona can take? more than the owner?
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 7440
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: coronavirus kill rate

September 27th, 2020, 7:20 pm

Testing vs detected cases: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... ime=latest

The proportion varies from country to country. Maybe my hypothesis that the recent spike in infections (while no increase in the number of deaths) is due to more testing is incorrect. Maybe the virus evolved lighter forms - it will stay with us forever like seasonal flu, as some experts predicted.
Don't worry, the intensive farming industry will hatch something new lethal soon and, just to make sure, it will produce enough antibiotic pollution to boost accompanying bacterial infections.