SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

 
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asd
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Time series forecasting

January 24th, 2003, 5:18 pm

Is there a link between palmistry/astrology and Quant science?Must there be a correlation between the positions of planetsand the stock and interest rate movements?May be in the next decade,we will put them into a formula..
 
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FDAXHunter
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Time series forecasting

January 24th, 2003, 6:23 pm

Well, with astrology you will find that large amount of combinations and the small amount of observations, will inevitably lead to extremely high historical correlations with certain market events... even if they are something like "The solar ecllipses visible in Africa pointed to highs in the Mexican Bond Market 5 times out of 5 over the last 40 years".But seriously, even though there are a bunch of nihilistc personalities in this forum, there are cycles in humans (ask your wife/girlfriend) and hence markets, so there will be correlations with other cycles, such as planetary cycles or star cycles.But on a more interesting note, obviously some cycles have a more profound effect on our behavior... I can't sleep during a fool moon, so my next day behavior will obviously be affected. Winter is an altogether different time for humans than summer and there are certain economic cycles (such as year end/month end, certain div. periods, etc. etc.)Good luck trying to put human behavior in a formula, not saying that it can't be done, but EVERYONE I know that tried to use that approach has eventually blown out. Best of luck with it... prove me wrong.Regards.
 
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SanFranCA2002
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Time series forecasting

January 24th, 2003, 6:26 pm

I have not seen anything on planet positions. Some work has been done indicating a relationship between sunspots and various economic activity. When I worked at the Federal Reserve we had a project to transform calendar months into lunar months for an economic forecasting project. The point was to identify if the arbitrary imposition of calendar periods and the explicit different day counts biased the data in unfortunate ways.
 
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asd
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Time series forecasting

January 24th, 2003, 8:51 pm

I had once been a student in marketing research,where a lot of studyis centered around measuring and quantifying users perceptionsto estimate the supply/demand for the product before launching a product or modifying strategies.I was wondering,if some QF firms might be doing this kind of,or related stuff? -Samples of stock market common investors are surveyed of diffferent classesfinancial dispositions and demographics on a periodic basis.The volatility of changes in the scores must be related to the future volitilities in the stock movements.
 
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reza
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Time series forecasting

January 26th, 2003, 2:14 am

CNBC had actually a program on astrology and the economy, beginning of Januarythey took it seriously too !
Last edited by reza on January 25th, 2003, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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pb273
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Time series forecasting

January 27th, 2003, 3:10 am

asd,one of the most crucial thing about astrology is that one need the astrological system positions at the time of the birth within an accuracy of 15 minutes as the positions keep changing every 15 minutes. now, even if we say that astrology works for individuals, the problem in applying the same to stocks is (a) do we take the birth of the company or the birth of the listed stock or the beginning of the tenure current CEO (b) what is the birth of company or the stock or etc anyway - is it the time the company was visualized or is it the time when the foundation was set or the time when the first building was innagurated ...thus, even if astrology works on individuals, any use of it in finance or stock prediction is just spurious.
 
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Anthis
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January 27th, 2003, 8:41 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: pb273asd,one of the most crucial thing about astrology is that one need the astrological system positions at the time of the birth within an accuracy of 15 minutes as the positions keep changing every 15 minutes. now, even if we say that astrology works for individuals, the problem in applying the same to stocks is (a) do we take the birth of the company or the birth of the listed stock or the beginning of the tenure current CEO (b) what is the birth of company or the stock or etc anyway - is it the time the company was visualized or is it the time when the foundation was set or the time when the first building was innagurated ...thus, even if astrology works on individuals, any use of it in finance or stock prediction is just spurious.Well, if we assume the that the period between company formation and IPO (when the firm is still held privately), is the pregnancy period, and some point of time during the IPO process is the birth then we can reach to a model linking astrology and finance.I guess it can also work for currencies as well! Think of the "pregnancy" and "birth" of Euro!!!
 
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DominicConnor
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Time series forecasting

January 27th, 2003, 8:53 am

Actually Astrology is the direct linear ancestor of quant work, as Isaac Asimov explains so well in the "The Tragedy of the Moon".In ancient times such as the Egyptian civilisation based upon the Nile, being able to predict events such as floods, and when to plant crops was a seriously powerful analytical tool. Measurement and time series were key to this, and the 1st generation Quants who did it ended up rich and powerful. (albeit their brains were scooped out later).They had no idea what was going on, but they noticed that certain events were linked to lunar periods and it is clear to even the dimmest person that the Moon is going around the Earth. It is entirely possible this was the first use of mathematics as a predictive tool.The maths worked even when the physical model was simply wrong. Astologers are somewhat economical with the truth here, in that they don't admit their models are historically based upon the notion that all the planets go around the Earth.One doesn't even need a physical model. As I recall from Feynman's explanations of quantum theory, some S. American astrologlers could predict certain astronomical events rather better than we could until very recently. They didn't even assume the planets went around the Earth, indeed they had no model, as far as we can tell they simply moved stones from one container to another in certain ways. Feynman used this as an illustration of how physics didn't need to be "right" to be useful, or produce accurate numbers.
 
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pb273
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Time series forecasting

January 27th, 2003, 9:12 am

Well,in south asian astrology, there is a fairly complex mathematical formula called Kundli by which you compare the astrological charts of a man and a woman to tell whether and to what extent their marriage will be successful. and then use that formula to give points out of 36 to the "pair" .... the scale is in steps of 0.5, i.e. 0,0.5,1,1.5,...,24,24.5,25,25.5,26,...,35,35.5,36 ..... if the "pair" gets a value below 18, then the marriage will be unsuccesful, 18-24 is average, 25-28 is good, above 28-32 is very good, 32-35.5 is excellent, but 36 is avoided as that is considered to become equal to god. so if anyone actually thinks that astrology can work with stocks, it could be interesting to apply Kundli to pair trading or statistical arbitrage.
Last edited by pb273 on January 26th, 2003, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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kutilya
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Time series forecasting

January 27th, 2003, 10:49 am

Last edited by kutilya on November 6th, 2003, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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csparker
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Time series forecasting

January 27th, 2003, 2:13 pm

I remember hearing once that a group of students somewhere was looking for predictive stock market indicators, so they tried all sorts of time series data they could get hold of. I believe they looked at market data and more unconventional sources, including some sort of astrological prediction. The best correlation they found was with the temperature of their office plant.
 
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quantie
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Joined: October 18th, 2001, 8:47 am

Time series forecasting

January 29th, 2003, 2:28 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: pb273Well,in south asian astrology, there is a fairly complex mathematical formula called <i>Kundli</i> by which you compare the astrological charts of a man and a woman to tell whether and to what extent their marriage will be successful. and then use that formula to give points out of 36 to the "pair" .... the scale is in steps of 0.5, i.e. 0,0.5,1,1.5,...,24,24.5,25,25.5,26,...,35,35.5,36 ..... if the "pair" gets a value below 18, then the marriage will be unsuccesful, 18-24 is average, 25-28 is good, above 28-32 is very good, 32-35.5 is excellent, but 36 is avoided as that is considered to become equal to god. so if anyone actually thinks that astrology can work with stocks, it could be interesting to apply <i>Kundli</i> to pair trading or statistical arbitrage.Hmmm, I just noticed that I have a dark spot developing in my aura some where around the third chakra , its time i dumped those equities and got into cash...
 
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supernaut20
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Time series forecasting

February 3rd, 2003, 4:24 am

Wasnt there a big hue and cry when the Indian University Grants Commission decided to offer degrees in astrology? Anyway, anyone interested in the esoteric, check out this wonderful independent movie called "Pi" about a mathematician who tries to unravel the secrets of the Street using number theory. But then, it so happens that orthodox Jews think he's cracked the secret of the Qabbalah. In the vein of Foucault's Pendulum...not astrology but weird enough!!
 
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DominicConnor
Posts: 11684
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

Time series forecasting

February 3rd, 2003, 8:16 am

Wasnt there a big hue and cry when the Indian University Grants Commission decided to offer degrees in astrology?A sound business decision !The market for Astrology books, software, videos and personal readings rivals gambling and seems to have fewer negative social impacts. In the minds of people who believe in Astrology thre is a powerful brand image of a people still in tune with nature, who reject the modern world and have ancestral wisdom.It is however a highly competitive market. One can't just get an old weather beaten Indian and stick him on a DVD chanting and speaking in broken English. One must have an angle, and be able to put forword the case eloquently. cost effective training could turn Indian Astrology into a valuable source of income for a people who have little. It requires little infrastructre, and the physical isolation of their homes becomes an asset.Indeed, my criticism is that the Federal Government doesn't do a thorough job.Astrology has not embraced the last 300 years of advances in our knowledge of the heavens. for the price of a truck load of beer, MIT research students could update Astonomy to include black holes, Pluto, binary stars, revolution around the galactic centre, and Hubble expansion.NASA could chip in with a vast library of Hubble pictures, and for another truck load of beer me and my mates would be happy to assist in mapping nebulae and the microwave background to the cosmic consciousness. SETI@Home shows how much sheer processing poke can be acquired from the general public. We have only a few dozen constellations, even though we have mapped millions of bodies, and of course the classical constellations are two dimensional.Finding the sets of stars that map to traditional Indian symbols would soak up this power, and generate pretty pictures as well.Indeed one might being in numerology, taking birth date and mapping it to a 4 dimensional grid that determines your personal star.
 
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pb273
Posts: 670
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

Time series forecasting

February 3rd, 2003, 9:54 am

It is however a highly competitive market. One can't just get an old weather beaten Indian and stick him on a DVD chanting and speaking in broken English. One must have an angle, and be able to put forword the case eloquently. cost effective training could turn Indian Astrology into a valuable source of income for a people who have little. It requires little infrastructre, and the physical isolation of their homes becomes an asset.DCFC, astrology is a legitimate and recognised subject in India and people can get degrees including PhDs in it. i mean, its similar to studying say psycology or anthropology - it is seriously treated as a subject to specialize in college. no kidding.
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