I was concerned about this one: 3 new cases of COVID-19 in Singapore: a 41-year-old Singaporean who was the first one reported not to have any known links to previous cases, and two Yong Thai Hang employees
That would potentially mean another infection cluster. The fact that such clusters form (around different infection sources) can explain the rapid jumps in the incidence that we've seen a couple of days ago. Percolation network applies with its bleak forecast:
And when the giant component forms, quoting Fry from Futurama: "We're all gonna die!"
Two days ago they denied it, though: Singapore not 'epicentre' despite rise in cases, says Indonesia health minister
However, in the times of dramatic wildlife decline
*, high-density population and mass air-travel (a nice simple model with flights included to SIR equations)
something will breach the percolation threshold sooner or later.
[*] BTW, they don't know the exact mechanism, apparently, but they came up with a confusing (for me) theory:
The researchers don't know why the effect occurs. But they speculate that species that are better at buffering disease transmission — for example because they have low rates of reproduction or invest heavily in immunity — tend to die out first when diversity declines, whereas species that have high rates of reproduction or invest less in immunity — and thus are more likely to be disease hosts — survive for longer
Isn't the simplest explanation the fact that different species hosts different varieties of microorganisms**, which are often natural enemies of pathogens (other viruses, bacteria producing natural pesticides)? Their diversity declines with the diversity of their hosts, and thus there's a less versatile micro-army to fight the ingenious micro-enemies.
[**] BTW, seriously, adopt a cat or a dog and you'll be healthier - I've already posted a long list of references to studies reporting such findings.
Anyway, covid outgrew my pessimistic scenario by now. Any forecasts of the geoeconomic impact?