SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

katastrofa
Posts: 8955
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Asymptomatic carriers suspected:
"A familial cluster of 5 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Anyang, China, had contact before their symptom onset with an asymptomatic family member who had traveled from the epidemic center of Wuhan. The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier."

Not a good time for Helgefylla, Freckled Cat!

bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

It's Wednesday!

trackstar
Posts: 27281
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Back to statistics.  Here is Farid's link from some weeks ago:
A better map (and up to date) for the coronavirus is managed by Johns Hopkins CSSE:
Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases
Confirmed cases: 81,404
Deaths: 2,771
Recovered: 30,424

And BTW - thus far, I am fine. I am from New England many generations and we are as tough as granite. : )
Last edited by trackstar on February 27th, 2020, 3:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

trackstar
Posts: 27281
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Reading about new individual cases as they come along and so far prognosis does not seem too bad (outside of Asia). In the US, people (esp. off of the cruise ship) are being isolated but getting treatment; the Italian doctor and his wife and three others from Tenerife hotel are also getting treatment, and the case in Norway is someone who just returned from China and is expected to recover. Positive as tested, but mild or no symptoms at the moment.

As an example of voluntary precautions, this was in the local news tonight:

231 People Self-Quarantined, Being Monitored for Coronavirus in Mass. - NBC News Boston Feb 26

"...Massachusetts has had 680 people in quarantine so far, meaning they are monitored just in case they present symptoms. While 377 completed their monitoring with no symptoms, 231 are still under self-quarantine in their homes."

Of course none of this is very HIPAA-compliant, but useful for perspective.

trackstar
Posts: 27281
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Every country with one exception wants its population to be healthy. That exception is the US for which so much of its economy is linked to having an optimal number of optimally ill people. There are teams of people in the US busily calculating when is the optimal time to release an optimal cure for the maximum profit.
From The New York Times, Feb 26

Gilead to Expand Coronavirus Drug Trials to Other Countries

The drug maker said that in March it would begin two more clinical trials of remdesivir, an experimental antiviral drug, in more nations outside China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/heal ... rials.html

Collector
Topic Author
Posts: 4563
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Fresh from the press, books, now on amazon: I survived Corona Virus Personal Notebook
Last edited by Collector on February 27th, 2020, 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

Collector
Topic Author
Posts: 4563
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Immortals 0 to $\infty$ years old: no fatalities so far!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Collector
Topic Author
Posts: 4563
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

"The woman was discharged from a local medical institution on February 1, and was confirmed as virus-free on February 6.

But on February 19, she felt throat and chest pain. After several visits to the doctor, she was tested a week later and tested positive again."

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200227_12/

similar stories from China, naturally chances of false positive and negative (serological cross reactivity also an issue for some microbes and virus tests, also issue in some PCR tests)or going through it once not giving immunity, hiding dormant and just wait to re-appear, several sub-types, or just a RCB (rapid changing beast) ?

trackstar
Posts: 27281
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus - Nature Feb 26

"Pangolins are a prime suspect, but a slew of genetic analyses has yet to find conclusive proof."

"Not close enough

...The researchers said they had found a coronavirus in smuggled pangolins that was a 99% genetic match to the virus circulating in people.

But the result did not actually refer to the entire genome. In fact, it related to a specific site known as the receptor-binding domain (RBD), say the study’s authors, who posted their analysis1 on the biomedical preprint server bioRxiv on 20 February. The press-conference report was the result of an “embarrassing miscommunication between the bioinformatics group and the lab group of the study”, ...

A whole-genome comparison found that the pangolin and human viruses share 90.3% of their DNA.
...
Three similar comparison studies were posted on bioRxiv last week. One of those papers — by an international research group , posted on 18 February — found that coronaviruses in frozen cell samples from illegally trafficked pangolins shared between 85.5% and 92.4% of their DNA with the virus found in humans.
Two other papers published on 20 February, from groups in China, also studied coronaviruses from smuggled pangolins. The viruses were 90.23% and 91.02% similar, respectively, to the virus that causes COVID-19."
...

So clues, but no definitive answers yet.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 61537
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

The outbreak has now hit nearly every continent. It has not yet reached Antarctica.

Screen Shot 2020-02-26 at 10.02.50 PM.png
The problem there is finding a Corona-free bar.

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget

Collector
Topic Author
Posts: 4563
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

The outbreak has now hit nearly every continent. It has not yet reached Antarctica.

Screen Shot 2020-02-26 at 10.02.50 PM.png
The problem there is finding a Corona-free bar. www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfOlH4LOxFw
Needs colobration, I think only a mathematician, physicist and computer scientist together can localize such a facility.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 61537
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

The outbreak has now hit nearly every continent. It has not yet reached Antarctica.

Screen Shot 2020-02-26 at 10.02.50 PM.png
The problem there is finding a Corona-free bar. www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfOlH4LOxFw
Needs colobration, I think only a mathematician, physicist and computer scientist together can localize such a facility.
Are you serious?
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget

Cuchulainn
Posts: 61537
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Those masks seem to be useless?
Not all masks are useless - see Masks and N95 Respirators - FDA US, but without goggles, gloves (at least), and really a whole protective suit, you are not "safe."

And even then, if you are exposed all day, every day, as health care workers in China have been, it is still very risky.

Imagine - you have to take the suit off each day and put on a new one (hopefully new anyway) the next day. Great precision needed here, even more than Paul would need with his full Scottish dress.

BTW: all kinds of masks are for sale on eBay now at grossly inflated prices.
The ‘N95’ designation means that when subjected to careful testing, the respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (0.3 micron) test particles. If properly fitted, the filtration capabilities of N95 respirators exceed those of face masks. However, even a properly fitted N95 respirator does not completely eliminate the risk of illness or death.

N95 respirators are not designed for children or people with facial hair. Because a proper fit cannot be achieved on children and people with facial hair, the N95 respirator may not provide full protection.

It's the 5% that it doesn't catch is the concern.

Caveat emptor.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget

trackstar
Posts: 27281
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

never mind masks and health care systems.

i have read a lot of the research and time will tell...

But at my core, I am nomadic by nature.

a better investment too!

PS: Don't watch too much news - it is getting very hysterical now, between market drop and virus spread.
Reality lies elsewhere.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 61537
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: How good or bad are the pandemic warning models?

Me worried, never! It's all been worked out for us. Just stay at home and carry on scribbling + LYONS (IRISH) tea!

Let me know when we get to the weeping and gnashing of teeth stage.

Rumour has it ... US banning entry country from people (students?) from China,,??
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget