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Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: February 9th, 2020, 1:17 pm
by FaridMoussaoui
The poor Scots stayed too long under England domination.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: February 9th, 2020, 1:23 pm
by Cuchulainn
The poor Scots stayed too long under England domination.
500 years less than the Irish. That's why we get on well. We had time to acciimatise.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: February 9th, 2020, 1:25 pm
by Cuchulainn
have any of you had such machines flying around your garden (without informing u first), basically a flying super chain saw two to three meter tall cutting wildly in trees, and incredible noise. it was when it was flying towards my house in strong wind, jumping up and down that I got a tad worried about the tails on my roof

Screen Shot 2020-02-09 at 1.17.28 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-09 at 1.17.28 PM.png

It is not every day I am up climbing trees, but it happens...will be considering buying a helmet now.

You have likely heard about blade runner, but have u seen 10-blade runner? This tool excellent for a movie, even a comedy! If no wind supposedly excellent to trim tall hedges!
Yes, quite regularly during 20 years ago. Not anymore.

Image

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: February 9th, 2020, 1:37 pm
by Cuchulainn
It would be more cost effective to hire tree fellar. Costs < 2K for that cluster of trees.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: February 24th, 2020, 4:02 pm
by Cuchulainn
Why aren't legal contracts accompanied by a list of definitions of terms used?

(I think because most people are not requirements analysts).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Requirements_analysis

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 11:16 am
by Cuchulainn
What's the difference between Covid-19 an BREXIT?

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 4:20 pm
by Paul
There are many similarities. They bring out the worst in people, highlighting which people would rather have society harmed in order to be proved right. I think it’s sick.

And then there are differences. For example EU “leaders” (see other thread about what real leaders do, those in the EU don’t meet even the most basic requirements) wouldn’t stop wittering on about Brexit but have gone quiet on corona.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 4:36 pm
by thanasis31
@Paul,

are you pro or against the current "herd immunity" stategy?

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 4:43 pm
by Paul
I know nothing about herd strategies and the roles played by mutation and reinfection. But the apparent death rate among all but the old and those with other conditions is low enough for it to make some sense. I also don’t know whether that low rate has to be achieved by looking after even the young people in hospital.

But I definitely don’t have any problem with the UK doing things differently.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 5:43 pm
by thanasis31
I do not believe that it is the proper time in order to be a contrarian if you do not have solid proof.
UK is the only country in the world promoting this strategy. From a modeller's perspective, aren't you curious for these Scientific Pandemic Influenza models to be publicly exposed in order to be properly scrutinized? 

Also, as you have been mentioned in your book, one of the core principles of a model is to clearly state its assumptions. Do you think that in this case this holds?

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 6:03 pm
by Paul
Using the word "contrarian" can be misleading. It can mean arguing/being different for the sake of it. That might not be a good idea now or (or it could, but I won't argue that case right now!).

No, I don't think everything should be published. I think it should be left to experts who then advise leaders. Look at the climate-change mess! And there we are talking decades before the end of the human race. You can already see the chaos starting with corona because everyone is suddenly an expert. 

And what counts as assumptions? This covers many, many fields: virology, economics, behaviour, politics. And we know from recent UK events that people will lie because they have agendas. 

I also think you have to respect any politician who does something that might end his/her career. That is unless you think that there's a conspiracy to kill off certain sections of society! If that's where you are coming from, please state your assumption asap!

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 6:18 pm
by thanasis31
Thanks for taking the time to respond.
I used the term "contrarian" according to the dictionary, there was no implied element of being different just for the sake of it.
You can already see the chaos starting with corona because everyone is suddenly an expert. 
You are right saying that everybody is suddenly an expert. But this is not related at all with models going public. My belief is that the verified experts should have the right to judge the models used in such critical decision making.
And what counts as assumptions? This covers many, many fields: virology, economics, behaviour, politics. And we know from recent UK events that people will lie because they have agendas. 
You are totally right. I think that the public deserves to know what is the metric they are trying to (min/max)imise and how they have reached this result.
That is unless you think that there's a conspiracy to kill off certain sections of society! If that's where you are coming from, please state your assumption asap!
Not at all. There is no conspiracy element in my comments. What I would like to learn is if this is the best approach to minimize deaths in England. And how the impact in economy is factored in.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 6:33 pm
by Paul
Just imagine how this approach would have affected WWII! (I think that's the natural example to consider, affecting many countries and with a similar timescale.) It would have been an absolute mess.

There's a rather trivial comparison I can make. I am forever getting unsought advice from people about how to run my various businesses. That advice always comes from people who are not successful themselves. I don't think I've ever been given advice from anyone more successful than me. (And nor have I asked for it.) I've always believed that those giving the advice a) think they know everything but b) never, ever see the many, many dimensions in play. But the successful ones do. (Any advice I give here or elsewhere probably should not be taken too seriously, unless it is about mathematics or cheese making!)

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 7:05 pm
by katastrofa
There’s no such a thing as “herd immunity strategy”, whatever it would mean. Some of the government experts mentioned herd immunity and it's been twisted and blown up by the media or not very bright Twitter crowd.
The experts clearly say that they don't have enough information to even assume the immunity will be produced and effective. everybody hopes it will.

Re: Stupid question of the day

Posted: March 15th, 2020, 7:18 pm
by Paul
Indeed! 

All we seem to know

a) the death rate is low for young/middle-aged people and high for older
b) if you've had it and are recovered then you can't give it to someone else