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ppauper
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February 20th, 2016, 9:53 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ExSanQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnRIP, Umberto EcoRIPbut this is the wrong RIP threadthis is the RIP thread threadblame Tagomalol
 
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February 20th, 2016, 9:55 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: tagomaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnRIP, Umberto EcoRIPbut this is the wrong RIP threadSorry, I have a cold.Please, don't say there is an Eco. Eco no more.dbl ?
 
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katastrofa
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February 21st, 2016, 12:02 am

Just so that we're on the same page: censoring occurs when you lose track of a study participant due to attrition or the study termination. I think it's not such a big problem here, because all you want to do is compare the mortality rate of a specific group with that of the general population at a certain age.The mortality rate in developed countries starts to incline rapidly at the age of 65. Crudely, at the age of 70 it crosses 20 (per 1000 per year, using the UK population as a proxy), while at the age of 83 it's already ~120.Using very crude approximations based on your numbers (averages, the small sample, ...), the absolute mortality among ~70-year old rockstars would be ~100 (rounding down since January is a particularly deadly month) and among ~80-year old filmmakers it is 170. Hence, there would need to live (or die) 5000 renown rock musicians at the age you specified not to exceed the standard mortality rate and similarly 1500 filmmakers. The employment statistics for the motion picture and the music industries in the UK suggests that they are of a similar size (about 400,000). It seems that rockstars indeed kick the drum/rock their clogs earlier than average, but then again, there's Keith Richards...What seems more surprising to me is that 7 out of 11 guys on the musicians list are British (if I'm not mistaken).BTW, http://theconversation.com/music-to-die ... ancy-36660("The chart plots genres over time (oldest to youngest genres), showing the average age of death of popular musicians by genre and gender against life expectancy (LE) for US males and females born in the same year.")
 
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tw
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February 21st, 2016, 1:32 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: katastrofaJust so that we're on the same page: censoring occurs when you lose track of a study participant due to attrition or the study termination. I think it's not such a big problem here, because all you want to do is compare the mortality rate of a specific group with that of the general population at a certain age.The mortality rate in developed countries starts to incline rapidly at the age of 65. Crudely, at the age of 70 it crosses 20 (per 1000 per year, using the UK population as a proxy), while at the age of 83 it's already ~120.Using very crude approximations based on your numbers (averages, the small sample, ...), the absolute mortality among ~70-year old rockstars would be ~100 (rounding down since January is a particularly deadly month) and among ~80-year old filmmakers it is 170. Hence, there would need to live (or die) 5000 renown rock musicians at the age you specified not to exceed the standard mortality rate and similarly 1500 filmmakers. The employment statistics for the motion picture and the music industries in the UK suggests that they are of a similar size (about 400,000). It seems that rockstars indeed kick the drum/rock their clogs earlier than average, but then again, there's Keith Richards...What seems more surprising to me is that 7 out of 11 guys on the musicians list are British (if I'm not mistaken).BTW, http://theconversation.com/music-to-die ... ancy-36660("The chart plots genres over time (oldest to youngest genres), showing the average age of death of popular musicians by genre and gender against life expectancy (LE) for US males and females born in the same year.")Thanks for the analysis! So can we conclude that Keith Richard's apparent immortality is the black swan event here? :)
 
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ppauper
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February 21st, 2016, 1:50 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: katastrofaWhat seems more surprising to me is that 7 out of 11 guys on the musicians list are British (if I'm not mistaken).I looked them up in wikiUS Paul Kantner 74UK Colin Vearncombe 53Giorgio Gomelsky 81 (born in Georgia (the country not the state) , grew up in Switzerland, and later lived in Britain and the US)US Glenn Frey 67UK Dale Griffin 67UK David Bowie 69UK Ed Stewart 74Robert Stigwood 81 (Australian-born British-resident)US Natalie Cole 65US Maurice White 74UK Ian Kilmister 70between 5 and 7 depending upon whom you consider to be Britishthe list was taken from the music obituaries in a british newspaper, so there's a bias in there: lesser british stars who are unknown outside their homeland may make the list, not so comparable stars from other countries who are unknown in the UK
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Cuchulainn
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February 21st, 2016, 1:53 pm

Indeed.QuoteWhat seems more surprising to me is that 7 out of 11 guys on the musicians list are British (if I'm not mistaken).That's probably because the native English-speaking world only knows English and there were zillions of brilliant British groups from the 60s. I would say it's skewed.
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katastrofa
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February 22nd, 2016, 2:40 am

@tw: "So can we conclude that Keith Richard's apparent immortality is the black swan event here? :)"He probably is an outlier (as a frequent visitor to the London Wetland Centre I find the "black swan" metaphor absurd). He's like Holocaust survivors, who have longer average lifespan compared to Polish Jews who escaped to Israel before the German occupation. Germans purged them like Darwin on crack and only the very fittest survived. Similarly, Keith Richards seems to abide all hardships of being a rock star...QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteWhat seems more surprising to me is that 7 out of 11 guys on the musicians list are British (if I'm not mistaken).That's probably because the native English-speaking world only knows English and there were zillions of brilliant British groups from the 60s. I would say it's skewed.OK, but still, the UK isn't any empire but just a medium size island surrounded by cold seas.
 
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katastrofa
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February 22nd, 2016, 2:50 am

Hey, Keith Richards is only 72, he just looks 110!Now I definitely won't be able to fall asleeep...
 
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February 22nd, 2016, 6:31 am

And then here's Johnny. He's world famous in France.
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katastrofa
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March 11th, 2016, 10:42 pm

+1 (Keith Emerson)
 
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ppauper
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Re: RIP thread

July 24th, 2016, 7:33 am

 
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tw
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Re: RIP thread

July 24th, 2016, 12:17 pm

Can Betamax be resurrected and finally claim victory?
 
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ppauper
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Re: RIP thread

July 26th, 2016, 6:20 am

Tim LaHaye, 'Left Behind' author, dies at 90
80 million books 'greater' impact on modern Christianity than anything except Bible

RIP
we've debated the Rapture and pre- versus post- millenialism many times here
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: RIP thread

July 26th, 2016, 9:53 am

Tim LaHaye, 'Left Behind' author, dies at 90
80 million books 'greater' impact on modern Christianity than anything except Bible

RIP
we've debated the Rapture and pre- versus post- millenialism many times here
RIP
So, can we expect the Messiah any time soon?
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Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
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ppauper
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Re: RIP thread

July 26th, 2016, 10:06 am

Tim LaHaye, 'Left Behind' author, dies at 90
80 million books 'greater' impact on modern Christianity than anything except Bible

RIP
we've debated the Rapture and pre- versus post- millenialism many times here
RIP
So, can we expect the Messiah any time soon?
1000 years after the Rapture
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