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Cuchulainn
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Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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### Re: Models for Covid-19

What the scientists should do is port the Imperial code to Python (I'm serious), after having done a good online course. Avoid Ball of Mud 2.

bearish
Posts: 5532
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Not unrelated:

I've started to read (sorry haven't saved any refs) that R_0 isn't necessarily the greatest thing since sliced bread (no kidding!), and even that R_0 going above one might not matter, something about variability in R_0 makes things safer.

I am confused.

If you have a simple exponential growth (early stage of epidemic) with a growth rate which varies across populations, say, then the average number of infected is not given by the number of infected using an average growth rate. In fact it's worse. It's simple Jensen's Inequality.

There's probably a Certainty Equivalent Rate of Infection you could calculate.
You heard it first here: a risk neutral rate of infection!

Paul
Posts: 10773
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

I like it! I think I’ll diversify, catch a little bit of this, a little bit of that.

We have risk-neutral rate of infection, certainty equivalent, implied rates, and I’m sure we can back out the hospital price of risk.

Alan
Posts: 10167
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Hehe -- then there's the sharp ratio when you get vaccinated.

And the martingale clinical trial strategy: keep doubling the dosage until you get a winner!

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Not unrelated:

I've started to read (sorry haven't saved any refs) that R_0 isn't necessarily the greatest thing since sliced bread (no kidding!), and even that R_0 going above one might not matter, something about variability in R_0 makes things safer.

I am confused.

If you have a simple exponential growth (early stage of epidemic) with a growth rate which varies across populations, say, then the average number of infected is not given by the number of infected using an average growth rate. In fact it's worse. It's simple Jensen's Inequality.

There's probably a Certainty Equivalent Rate of Infection you could calculate.
You heard it first here: a risk neutral rate of infection!
yes, it's the silly season.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

The Italian Connection

What Quateroni is essentially saying is the need for more inclusive models.

// where's the 'physics' in SIR?

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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### Re: Models for Covid-19

Small update regarding the SIR code

A number of Fortran routines for RNG from ACM where ported 1:1 (mindlessly it seems) to C. This destroys the integrity and reliability of the code. Back to square 1.

Even Python leaves Fortran as it is (you know, wrappers).

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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### Re: Models for Covid-19

Exemption of travellers from island of Ireland from UK 14-day quarantine welcomed

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4260426

Arlene Foster describes exemption as a ‘generous move by the UK government’
What a load of baloney; DUP playing politics again.

I think they have lost the plot.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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### Re: Models for Covid-19

According to the Sunday Times report, the key moment came on 12 March when a group of government experts gathered to examine modelling of the spread of the virus carried out by academics at Imperial College London and elsewhere.

This predicted that if no action was taken more than half a million people would die, and that even some limited mitigation efforts would only halve this. The Sunday Times report said this changed the mind of Cummings, who before had been an adherent of the herd immunity idea.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said. It quoted one anonymous senior Conservative as saying: “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’ to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy’.”
The Downing Street spokesman said: “This is a highly defamatory fabrication which was not put to No 10 by the Sunday Times before publication. The article also includes a series of apparent quotes from meetings which are invented.”

Question: how can someone with a degree in History know this?
Another 'armchair epidemiologist"?

And 17 March BBC showed ODEs on prime time.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 62122
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

It is only now that we are all learning where the first case of Covid-19 was discovered, seemingly from a man from Codogno who was taken up in Lodi hospital (Lodi is a small village in  Lombardy; coincidentally I was twice in Lodi few years ago for business and a wedding). The video below shows how the team got into action. And the second case came ... then the doctors realised they had a pandemic on their hands..
One of the messages coming through is that the authorities ignored warnings from doctors. And most of Europe,USA, Brazil etc. for that matter. Asleep at the wheel.

Here's the story (in Italian) of the journey of "patient #1" from Lodi to Pavia and back again.

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cron ... resh_ce-cp
// Lodi has a famous building Banca Popolaro di Lodi designed by Renzo Piano if that means anything to you.

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