SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 26820
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 9:43 am

I know some of you will snarl and gnash your teeth, but it is good news for the short term, really, and in the long run we will all be dead.Long live government intervention - long live rivers of US Dollars flowing in springtime!
Last edited by trackstar on March 31st, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 9:59 am

coincidentally, Reagan budget director David Stockman's book was on Drudge todaythere's a story on it at http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/8 ... rmationbut it's saying unavailable at the moment try later"Reagan Budget Guru Declares: We've Been Lied To, Robbed and Misled..."
 
User avatar
tagoma
Posts: 18286
Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 10:00 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarI know some of you will snarl and gnash your teeth, but it is good news for the short term, really, and in the long run we will all be dead.Long live government intervention - long live rivers of US Dollars flowing in springtime!Whatever they do, I hope that will participate in reinforcing (what is left of) the euro.
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 26820
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 10:05 am

I'm looking more at domestic opportunities these days.Let the OT farmers of the world prop up (or destroy) the Euro.I am probably going to buy an organic farm somewhere in this region.Food production is a pretty good hedge against inflation and if we have global warming, then the growing season will be longer too!
 
User avatar
tagoma
Posts: 18286
Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 10:31 am

Cultivating that is crop production is different from food production as far as hedge against hedge is concerned.I mean, crop prices fluctuates (they are supposed to revert to a mean level) while food prices are trending higher (I think).Take the Frenchy example of milling wheat prices and the 'baguette' price to realize that.Farmland has turned very expensive in the US. Where do you plan to invest? (in which State?)
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 26820
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 10:35 am

There are ways to handle those fluctuations quite effectively.The fluctuations in weather and yield are more challenging.I'll have local expertise involved in the enterprise early on in that regard. Not to worry about location; there is ample in-house knowledge on the real estate market here.
Last edited by trackstar on March 31st, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
tagoma
Posts: 18286
Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 10:47 am

i am not sure you liked my baguette bread example .... whatever your tools for hedging your crop, the basis risk remains ...the location of you farm/field surely helps to mitigate that risk.i hope you will take us informed on this farm project. this seems exciting! good luck TS hopefully i'll be scouting across the US plains in August. i would be glad to visit your farm, then.
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 26820
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 10:50 am

Thanks!Time to leave for rowing now - enjoy your afternoons, everyone, such a nice day, April 1!
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 11:16 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: trackstarI'm looking more at domestic opportunities these days.Let the OT farmers of the world prop up (or destroy) the Euro.I am probably going to buy an organic farm somewhere in this region.Food production is a pretty good hedge against inflation and if we have global warming, then the growing season will be longer too!Good idea, but make sure you have a good water supply (both the natural resource and the legal rights). If the rainfall pattern changes, the warmer weather won't help.
Last edited by Traden4Alpha on March 31st, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 11:27 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: edouardCultivating that is crop production is different from food production as far as hedge against hedge is concerned.I mean, crop prices fluctuates (they are supposed to revert to a mean level) while food prices are trending higher (I think).Take the Frenchy example of milling wheat prices and the 'baguette' price to realize that.Farmland has turned very expensive in the US. Where do you plan to invest? (in which State?)The best hedge against crop price fluctuations is to become an artisanal brand -- the price one gets for ones crop will be high and almost uncorrelated with commodity prices.It might be called the "Trackstar Cheese & Chocolate Company" or maybe "Keptmann Farms".
 
User avatar
tagoma
Posts: 18286
Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 11:55 am

Drought conditions have improved on the central and Eastern parts of the corn belt as compared to spring/summer 2012Nonetheless, soil moisture remains abnormaly low in the central part of the US, in the Western part and in some parts of the spring wheat region. Please, see the map below.The USDA will start to publish again its national weekly crop progress tomorrow night. (sticking to cereals and oilseeds) Ag market participants will closely look at the shape of winter wheat. Then, attention will turn to the seedings of corn and soybean.The USDA's national crop progress is to be found here.The weekly wx report of the USDA is published every wednesday. It is to be found here
Last edited by tagoma on March 31st, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
trackstar
Topic Author
Posts: 26820
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 11:59 am

I could not agree more that water is important in agriculture! Natural fertilizers like manure too!Exacly right on the artisanal brand - I have studied some examples of this in recent years.But back to my original post for a minute.It is a day in early spring - could it be raining manure?Have foolish quants forgotten their umbrellas?
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 60518
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 2:36 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: edouardCultivating that is crop production is different from food production as far as hedge against hedge is concerned.I mean, crop prices fluctuates (they are supposed to revert to a mean level) while food prices are trending higher (I think).Take the Frenchy example of milling wheat prices and the 'baguette' price to realize that.Farmland has turned very expensive in the US. Where do you plan to invest? (in which State?)The best hedge against crop price fluctuations is to become an artisanal brand -- the price one gets for ones crop will be high and almost uncorrelated with commodity prices.It might be called the "Trackstar Cheese & Chocolate Company" or maybe "Keptmann Farms".Glad to hear. Better than "Unkemptmann farms", what?
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 2:42 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: edouardCultivating that is crop production is different from food production as far as hedge against hedge is concerned.I mean, crop prices fluctuates (they are supposed to revert to a mean level) while food prices are trending higher (I think).Take the Frenchy example of milling wheat prices and the 'baguette' price to realize that.Farmland has turned very expensive in the US. Where do you plan to invest? (in which State?)The best hedge against crop price fluctuations is to become an artisanal brand -- the price one gets for ones crop will be high and almost uncorrelated with commodity prices.It might be called the "Trackstar Cheese & Chocolate Company" or maybe "Keptmann Farms".Glad to hear. Better than "Unkemptmann farms", what?Indeed! No unkempt men would be allowed on Trackstar's farm.Shipshape and Bristol fashion, what?
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 60518
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Fed Prepares for Further Quant Easing

April 1st, 2013, 2:54 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: edouardCultivating that is crop production is different from food production as far as hedge against hedge is concerned.I mean, crop prices fluctuates (they are supposed to revert to a mean level) while food prices are trending higher (I think).Take the Frenchy example of milling wheat prices and the 'baguette' price to realize that.Farmland has turned very expensive in the US. Where do you plan to invest? (in which State?)The best hedge against crop price fluctuations is to become an artisanal brand -- the price one gets for ones crop will be high and almost uncorrelated with commodity prices.It might be called the "Trackstar Cheese & Chocolate Company" or maybe "Keptmann Farms".Glad to hear. Better than "Unkemptmann farms", what?Indeed! No unkempt men would be allowed on Trackstar's farm.Shipshape and Bristol fashion, what?Tribal Man, maybe?Quote"There are ten thunders in the Wake. Each is a cryptogram or codified explanation of the thundering and reverberating consequences of the major technological changes in all human history. When a tribal man hears thunder, he says, 'What did he say that time?', as automatically as we say 'Gesundheit.'" As least a tribal man knows what to do in bad weather. TM close to nature, what? He know how to deal with kakkerlakkens? Kaizen for Vico cyclists?
Last edited by Cuchulainn on March 31st, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
ABOUT WILMOTT

PW by JB

Wilmott.com has been "Serving the Quantitative Finance Community" since 2001. Continued...


Twitter LinkedIn Instagram

JOBS BOARD

JOBS BOARD

Looking for a quant job, risk, algo trading,...? Browse jobs here...


GZIP: On