SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

bearish
Posts: 5526
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Until last night

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

This is so funny. In your haste to come up with a counterpunch you cite a WaPo story, reprinted in the LMT. I'll leave it at quoting the lead-in:

"In 2015, the year President Donald Trump launched his White House bid with a promise to build a wall on the Mexico border, illegal migration to the United States plunged 31 percent, falling near its lowest level in 50 years. Security experts saw a success, but Trump looked at the border and saw something ominous: "rapists," "criminals" and other predators lurking on the other side. In 2017, Trump's first year in office, he continued to insist on the urgent need for a border wall, even as illegal crossings dropped further."
that's so funny. If you actually read that article, you'll see that the WaPo confirms that there is a crisis at the border, which you missed in your haste. The WaPo calls the situation at the border "a bona fide emergency."
With parts of the federal government shut down over what has morphed into the defining symbol of Trump’s presidency, administration officials are clamoring louder than ever. Only this time, they face a bona fide emergency on the border, and they’re struggling to make the case there’s truly a problem.
Record numbers of migrant families are streaming into the United States, overwhelming border agents and leaving holding cells dangerously overcrowded with children, many of whom are falling sick. Two Guatemalan children taken into U.S. custody died in December.

bearish
Posts: 5526
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Mexican rapists all over the place!

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

I suspect that the WaPo was referring to the shear volume of illegals when they said that there is "a bona fide emergency." at the border.

rmax
Posts: 6080
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

I suspect that the WaPo was referring to the shear volume of illegals when they said that there is "a bona fide emergency." at the border.
I thought the rates of immigration from MX were lower - around the same as 2000. Also there are less male refugees, now many of them are women and children. Why is this now an emergency when before it wasn't? What has changed in the US?

bearish
Posts: 5526
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

In one word: Trump

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

It's not just mexicans, there's a lot of central americans (guatemalans, hondurans) as well
And a lot of people would say that it's always been an emergency. That's why Clinton and Obama built fences.

bearish
Posts: 5526
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

“It’s always been an emergency”. Clear and present thinking!

Trump has now clarified that it is an emergency if he doesn’t get his wall. Period. Never mind the facts on the ground.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

In one word: Trump
exactly, the booming Trump economy

rmax
Posts: 6080
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

I don't want to give Trump any more credit than he deserves. However he was elected in democratically and he always said that he was going to build a wall.

However unseemly and morally questionable it is (let along practical - has he not heard of the tunnels in Calif?) - he was elected and hence isn't he doing his best to execute on his manifesto (as stupid as it is?).

The whole veto thing reminds me of another classical case of Tiberius Gracchus when he vetoed everything to get his way. That didn't end up too well with him, like the other guy I posted about earlier.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

President Trump has actually not vetoed a single bill so far in his presidency. Zero.
Obama and Bush 2 each had 12 vetoes. Clinton had 36 regular and 1 pocket veto
(the president has 10 days (not counting Sundays) to return a Bill to Congress, and if he doesn't return it in time, it becomes law just as if he had signed it. The exception is when Congress is adjourned in which case the Bill dies, which is known as a pocket veto.
See Article 1, Section 7 of the Constitution)

Clinton's total pales into insignificance compared to Truman (180 regular and 70 pocket vetoes) and FDR (372 regular and 263 pocket vetoes)
FDR is remembered for bullying the Supreme Court, including his court-packing scheme, but not for all those vetoes, and the number is all-the-more remarkable because FDR's party controlled both the House and Senate for his entire presidency.

In the current Congress, the Dems control the House but the Republicans control the Senate.
This situation began in the previous Congress, where both the House and Senate were controlled by the Republicans but the Republicans didn't have enough votes to overcome a likely Democrat filibuster in the Senate: 60 votes (out of 100) are needed to break a filibuster and force a vote on a Bill

bearish
Posts: 5526
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

I don't want to give Trump any more credit than he deserves. However he was elected in democratically and he always said that he was going to build a wall.

However unseemly and morally questionable it is (let along practical - has he not heard of the tunnels in Calif?) - he was elected and hence isn't he doing his best to execute on his manifesto (as stupid as it is?).

The whole veto thing reminds me of another classical case of Tiberius Gracchus when he vetoed everything to get his way. That didn't end up too well with him, like the other guy I posted about earlier.
Presidents don’t appropriate money to do stuff. That is the job of the democratically elected congress. And neither the previous GOP dominated nor the current balanced congress have the slightest inclination to appropriate money for the wall.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

that's an untruth
In March 2018, Congress appropriated $1.6 billion out of a$1.3 trillion spending bill towards the border barrier, characterized by Trump as a "down payment" that would be spent "building not only some new wall,... but also fixing existing walls".

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

(let along practical - has he not heard of the tunnels in Calif?)
when the prototypes were unveiled, there were a number of specifications including "Wall designs must also be able to prevent tunneling from below for at least 6 feet"
If your argument is that a wall cannot be 100% effective, I'm not going to argue, but we can certainly build a wall (or a fence) that is more effective than the current partial fence