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Cuchulainn
Posts: 61563
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

"at least he will try"

Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
And the vast majority of the British people before and after WWII despised him.
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Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget

Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10462
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

"at least he will try"

Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
Armchair psychiatry is fun, isn’t it?! Am not sure of its reliability though!

ISayMoo
Posts: 2292
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

"at least he will try"

Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
Armchair psychiatry is fun, isn’t it?! Am not sure of its reliability though!
Well, you started diagnosing europhilia

Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10462
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

That's how I know it's fun!

FaridMoussaoui
Posts: 507
Joined: June 20th, 2008, 10:05 am
Location: Genève, Genf, Ginevra, Geneva

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?
The Jan'20 expected move for EWU is roughly ATM straddle x 0.84 (32 strike), e.g $2.1 Not a lot of liquidity for that straddle but I used the mid price (bid/ask 2.0/3.0) Cuchulainn Posts: 61563 Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am Location: Amsterdam Contact: Re: Are you ready for Brexit? I'm with Sir Ivan Rogers (10 years for a long drawn-out exodus) and Fred Brooks. My prediction: Boris will resign and Rory Stewart will become PM in 1-2 years time. http://www.datasimfinancial.com http://www.datasim.nl Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself Jean Piaget bearish Posts: 5426 Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm Re: Are you ready for Brexit? So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas? The Jan'20 expected move for EWU is roughly ATM straddle x 0.84 (32 strike), e.g$2.1
Not a lot of liquidity for that straddle but I used the mid price (bid/ask 2.0/3.0)
I may have been imagining things last week — I thought I saw more volume and tighter spreads than when I looked again today. I wouldn’t bother with the call part of the straddle, though. The stock market seems to price in the 10-year extension of Article 50, and there is less of a catalyst to make Sterling pop back up. But, to your point, a \$2 (roughly 7%) expected move seems rather modest under the circumstances.

Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10462
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

I think the second season of Brexit is going to be a good one. The Boris character probably did well with the focus groups.

Not sure Trump will go to a second season. What can they do? Dragons worked in GOT, which surprised me. So maybe an end-of-season cliffhanger around the Chinese New Year?

ISayMoo
Posts: 2292
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

I'm with Sir Ivan Rogers (10 years for a long drawn-out exodus) and Fred Brooks.
My prediction: Boris will resign and Rory Stewart will become PM in 1-2 years time.
Rory's not a Tory. He's a TINO (Tory in Name Only). Should join LibDems.

bearish
Posts: 5426
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

I’ll admit not having thought this fully through, but would it be easier if England just left the UK right away? I can see a problem with whether to call it Engxit, Eexit, or just plain Exit, but aside from that, it would seem the most direct path to the end state desired by those now picking the new PM.

bearish
Posts: 5426
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

I think the second season of Brexit is going to be a good one. The Boris character probably did well with the focus groups.

Not sure Trump will go to a second season. What can they do? Dragons worked in GOT, which surprised me. So maybe an end-of-season cliffhanger around the Chinese New Year?
I don’t know that I have ever watched HBO, so may be missing out on some of the current cultural references, but I’m thinking that metaphors from football (soccer) or ice hockey may be more appropriate in the Trump case. Like overtime, penalty shoot out, and sudden death.

Cuchulainn
Posts: 61563
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

I’ll admit not having thought this fully through, but would it be easier if England just left the UK right away? I can see a problem with whether to call it Engxit, Eexit, or just plain Exit, but aside from that, it would seem the most direct path to the end state desired by those now picking the new PM.
EEjit?
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Every Time We Teach a Child Something, We Keep Him from Inventing It Himself
Jean Piaget

katastrofa
Posts: 8963
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Without words. Leave English style.

bearish
Posts: 5426
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Without words. Leave English style.
“Hangin’ on in quiet desperation is the English way” —Gilmour & Wright

Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10462
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

I think the second season of Brexit is going to be a good one. The Boris character probably did well with the focus groups.

Not sure Trump will go to a second season. What can they do? Dragons worked in GOT, which surprised me. So maybe an end-of-season cliffhanger around the Chinese New Year?
I don’t know that I have ever watched HBO, so may be missing out on some of the current cultural references, but I’m thinking that metaphors from football (soccer) or ice hockey may be more appropriate in the Trump case. Like overtime, penalty shoot out, and sudden death.
Brexit: We sent in our under-21 B team against Germany. Our captain deliberately scored an own goal. We lost. Everyone blamed the supporters, and said we never had a chance.