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Cuchulainn
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 4:50 pm

"at least he will try"


Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
And the vast majority of the British people before and after WWII despised him.
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 7:04 pm

"at least he will try"


Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
Armchair psychiatry is fun, isn’t it?! Am not sure of its reliability though!
 
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ISayMoo
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 8:14 pm

"at least he will try"


Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
Armchair psychiatry is fun, isn’t it?! Am not sure of its reliability though!
Well, you started diagnosing europhilia ;-)
 
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Paul
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 8:56 pm

That's how I know it's fun!
 
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FaridMoussaoui
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 16th, 2019, 2:58 pm

So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?
The Jan'20 expected move for EWU is roughly ATM straddle x 0.84 (32 strike), e.g $2.1
Not a lot of liquidity for that straddle but I used the mid price (bid/ask 2.0/3.0)
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 16th, 2019, 8:11 pm

I'm with Sir Ivan Rogers (10 years for a long drawn-out exodus) and Fred Brooks. 
My prediction: Boris will resign and Rory Stewart will become PM in 1-2 years time.

Image
 
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bearish
Posts: 5081
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 16th, 2019, 9:45 pm

So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?
The Jan'20 expected move for EWU is roughly ATM straddle x 0.84 (32 strike), e.g $2.1
Not a lot of liquidity for that straddle but I used the mid price (bid/ask 2.0/3.0)
I may have been imagining things last week — I thought I saw more volume and tighter spreads than when I looked again today. I wouldn’t bother with the call part of the straddle, though. The stock market seems to price in the 10-year extension of Article 50, and there is less of a catalyst to make Sterling pop back up. But, to your point, a $2 (roughly 7%) expected move seems rather modest under the circumstances.
 
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Paul
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 4:27 am

I think the second season of Brexit is going to be a good one. The Boris character probably did well with the focus groups.

Not sure Trump will go to a second season. What can they do? Dragons worked in GOT, which surprised me. So maybe an end-of-season cliffhanger around the Chinese New Year?
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2137
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 10:30 am

I'm with Sir Ivan Rogers (10 years for a long drawn-out exodus) and Fred Brooks. 
My prediction: Boris will resign and Rory Stewart will become PM in 1-2 years time.
Rory's not a Tory. He's a TINO (Tory in Name Only). Should join LibDems.
 
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bearish
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Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 11:05 am

I’ll admit not having thought this fully through, but would it be easier if England just left the UK right away? I can see a problem with whether to call it Engxit, Eexit, or just plain Exit, but aside from that, it would seem the most direct path to the end state desired by those now picking the new PM.
 
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bearish
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Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 11:10 am

I think the second season of Brexit is going to be a good one. The Boris character probably did well with the focus groups.

Not sure Trump will go to a second season. What can they do? Dragons worked in GOT, which surprised me. So maybe an end-of-season cliffhanger around the Chinese New Year?
I don’t know that I have ever watched HBO, so may be missing out on some of the current cultural references, but I’m thinking that metaphors from football (soccer) or ice hockey may be more appropriate in the Trump case. Like overtime, penalty shoot out, and sudden death.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 1:50 pm

I’ll admit not having thought this fully through, but would it be easier if England just left the UK right away? I can see a problem with whether to call it Engxit, Eexit, or just plain Exit, but aside from that, it would seem the most direct path to the end state desired by those now picking the new PM.
EEjit?
 
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katastrofa
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Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 2:51 pm

Without words. Leave English style.
 
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bearish
Posts: 5081
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 4:18 pm

Without words. Leave English style.
“Hangin’ on in quiet desperation is the English way” —Gilmour & Wright
 
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Paul
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Posts: 9581
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 17th, 2019, 4:24 pm

I think the second season of Brexit is going to be a good one. The Boris character probably did well with the focus groups.

Not sure Trump will go to a second season. What can they do? Dragons worked in GOT, which surprised me. So maybe an end-of-season cliffhanger around the Chinese New Year?
I don’t know that I have ever watched HBO, so may be missing out on some of the current cultural references, but I’m thinking that metaphors from football (soccer) or ice hockey may be more appropriate in the Trump case. Like overtime, penalty shoot out, and sudden death.
Brexit: We sent in our under-21 B team against Germany. Our captain deliberately scored an own goal. We lost. Everyone blamed the supporters, and said we never had a chance.
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