Wales got electricity last year. They are fully on their own now, I assume.And, as usual, nobody cares about Wales.Clear BREXIT mandate in England.
Not so in NI nor Scotland.
Wales got electricity last year. They are fully on their own now, I assume.And, as usual, nobody cares about Wales.Clear BREXIT mandate in England.
Not so in NI nor Scotland.
Tagoma, where did you catch this lightly sarcastic sense of humour?
Moving from Great Britain to Little England.Clear BREXIT mandate in England.
Not so in NI nor Scotland.
Are they on a 'go slow'? Sulking?I hear that across the land academics have not been turning up for coffee. So no "work" today then.
I didn't know it was physically possible to go any slower. But academics are always making new discoveries like that.Are they on a 'go slow'? Sulking?I hear that across the land academics have not been turning up for coffee. So no "work" today then.
My last forecast was 22 majority and 90% chance of Conservative majority. It was a majority of 80.BTW, Paul,
How accurate were your predictions in absolute terms?
Hi Paul. Is your forecasting methodology for this specific vote exposed/discussed somewhere, please?My last forecast was 22 majority and 90% chance of Conservative majority. It was a majority of 60.BTW, Paul,
How accurate were your predictions in absolute terms?
The final Conservative lead was 12%. The average poll in the run up was around 9%, including the biggest.
Last time the final lead was 2% with the polls at 7%. I.e the other way around!
Even those who got the seats right had the wrong percentages. And I suspect vice versa!
With the correct final polls I would have estimated a majority of around 32.
It's fun! What is most important to model, the percentages, how the percentages turn into seats (even if your percentages are wrong!) or go straight to seats (but then how do you use the only info you have, the polls?)?