SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10771
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 9th, 2019, 3:17 pm

A friend of mine (ex press officer for Ukip (what a great job!)) has set up a reputation management consultancy “Crisis What Crisis.” Really captures the old zeitgeist!
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 9th, 2019, 4:20 pm

and we had the incoming House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Washington, say that "unfortunately" the president does have the authority to call a national emergency over border security
“Unfortunately, the short answer is yes. There is a provision in law that says the president can declare an emergency. It's been done a number of times. But primarily it's been done to build facilities in Afghanistan and Iraq."
So for all the checks and balances that the US legal system has the president can still hold a country to ransom and declare complete monarchy. History suggests that such powers do not end well.
the only "monarch" in recent history was Obama, who ignored the treaty clause (treaties must be ratified by a 2/3 supermajority in the senate) and claimed that both the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal were "executive agreements" rather than the treaties they were. The Senate would not have ratified either of those treaties.
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 2294
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 9th, 2019, 4:52 pm

Bloody Yankees, invading a British thread!
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10771
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 6:18 am

I like the argument that there can’t be a second referendum because then Scotland will want one.

But if there is, and we lose Scotland then May’s record as the worst ever PM is going to last for hundreds of years.

And is this the end for referenda for difficult subjects? No more referenda, ever, anywhere in the world!
 
User avatar
Gamal
Posts: 2362
Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 6:48 am

There must be one since the political class has shown its indolence, someone has to decide. The queen is too old.

Dear British People, what is your choice:

1. Accept the May/EU agreement.

2. Just go without bothering about any treaties.

3. Stay in the EU, it's a trap.
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10771
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 8:11 am

My favourite news story is about how there was a conference call between Hammond and various bosses. This included Amazon who are worried about a recession. Would that be the same Amazon run by (temporarily) the world’s richest person, dodging taxes and destroying the high street? Hmm, probably exactly the wrong company to be listening to.
 
User avatar
Gamal
Posts: 2362
Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 8:26 am

No more referenda, ever, anywhere in the world!
You know, referenda = democracy. Parliamentary elections are just a cheap substitute.
 
User avatar
rmax
Posts: 6080
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 9:46 am

Paul: as a Brexiteer what is your view on the vote, and the vote of no confidence in May? 

My 2 cents is that is all a shambles. The government will win the vote of no confidence, and then we are back to square one and will have wasted 2 years + millions in trying to get something through that is clearly ludicrous.

A referendum is not a bad idea. Let the people decide.
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10771
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 9:50 am

Common sense (google it, it’s probably extinct now) suggests that any second referendum should be between options that actually exist: No deal; Something like the May deal; Stay.

Scottish consequences also suggest you can’t include “Stay,”

But that’s only common sense, so is unlikely to happen.
 
User avatar
Gamal
Posts: 2362
Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 10:00 am

A referendum is not a bad idea. Let the people decide.
Sure. There're always two decisions in business - first one to negociate a deal and then to sign the agreed contract. The politicians failed, let the nation decide.
 
User avatar
Gamal
Posts: 2362
Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 10:02 am

double
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10771
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 10:04 am

May is probably a lovely person. But missing a crucial part of her brain. She is the problem, and the civil servants whom she let run this shambles.

And the people have already decided. If there’s another referendum (depending on the choices) it could make things worse: Civil disobedience, riots, boycotting of the referendum. (Although I’d have a side bet on apathy, and nothing happening!)

It was made clear before the vote that it would be implemented. It was in the major parties’ manifestos. So it would be hard to justify, unless Stay wasn’t in the options.

If Stay is included then everyone is really saying that a second referendum is just an excuse to stay. That’s all the Remoaners’ assumption. But it’s not clear the result would be different. There’s now soooo much evidence that the EU is evil, that the sky hasn’t fallen down, that the most lies have been told by remainers, that remainers have been the ones who’ve buggered this up. The analogy for the final point is that if half your football team is deliberately scoring own goals it doesn’t mean your team couldn’t be great, you just need to chuck the saboteurs.
 
User avatar
Gamal
Posts: 2362
Joined: February 26th, 2004, 8:41 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 10:18 am

You're right but someone has to decide. The politicians failed, all of them, not only Theresa May. What left? The queen and the nation. OK, let's not joke about the elderly lady. The nation.
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10771
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 10:48 am

I could give you a list of who to decide. I would be top of it. And the Queen would be pretty high up!
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 2294
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

January 16th, 2019, 11:07 am

Common sense (google it, it’s probably extinct now) suggests that any second referendum should be between options that actually exist: No deal; Something like the May deal; Stay.

Scottish consequences also suggest you can’t include “Stay,”

But that’s only common sense, so is unlikely to happen.
My pick would be for "something like May's deal" (with a tweaked political declaration, presumably; I don't think the EU will be able to agree to changes in the legal text), No deal, Remain - with preferential voting (look it up on the Wiki) for 1st and 2nd preference.
ABOUT WILMOTT

PW by JB

Wilmott.com has been "Serving the Quantitative Finance Community" since 2001. Continued...


Twitter LinkedIn Instagram

JOBS BOARD

JOBS BOARD

Looking for a quant job, risk, algo trading,...? Browse jobs here...


GZIP: On