In step with Paul’s test regarding PCR tests, the question has come up as to whether not vaccination increases or reduces the number of variants as well on LinkedIn. Hear me out…

1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.

2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.

I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.

Thoughts?

The chart from the second half of the presentation would be what I am describing at 2:35.1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.

2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.

I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.

Thoughts?

Statistics: Posted by ikicker — Today, 2:14 am

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Suppose you are quite old, but want to appear young. Is it better to:

a) move in a sprightly manner and occasionally fall over

or

b) move carefully and never fall over?

Asking for a friend/President.

a) move in a sprightly manner and occasionally fall over

or

b) move carefully and never fall over?

Asking for a friend/President.

Comparing the popular image of the most and least athletic presidents in the post FDR era (we’ll give him a pass on account of childhood polio), I’d have to go with b). Gerald Ford, an outstanding college football player, who turned down a professional career to become a college football and boxing coach, and later (as president) was a serious swimmer, skier and golfer, is remembered as a klutz because of the occasional misstep. Donald Trump, who is inclined to use a golf cart if there is a risk of more than a minute of walking, may be hated and despised for all sorts of obvious reasons, but I don’t think most people have any strong sense of his physical inabilities.

Statistics: Posted by bearish — Today, 1:35 am

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a) move in a sprightly manner and occasionally fall over

or

b) move carefully and never fall over?

Asking for a friend/President.

Statistics: Posted by Paul — Yesterday, 8:18 pm

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It may be still a few days before I could post a perfectly working program since I want to change a lot of things in my previous program as my understanding of the problem has become better. I will be posting comments regularly for next few days before I post a full-fledged worked out program.

Statistics: Posted by Amin — Yesterday, 2:16 pm

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Reactions to the House Democrat's attire were split between those who called it hypocritical and others who supported the political message. The Met Gala is an exclusive event that features $35,000 tickets.

Well, they certainly both deserve the "red carpet photo of the week" award

Statistics: Posted by Alan — September 17th, 2021, 1:55 pm

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Statistics: Posted by tagoma — September 17th, 2021, 11:06 am

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Can someone (and by someone I obviously mean kat!) do the maths of probability of having covid given one positive test and one negative, taken simultaneously. Assume different parameters for the two tests (i.e. false pos, neg, etc.) to model different types of tests. And if you have these parameters for the different types of tests that would be great too!

Thanks in advance!

Thanks in advance!

You need a confusion matrix. This study has one, but of course the probabilities of being infected and in the hospital are different from in the general population.

Study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080131/

Statistics: Posted by ikicker — September 16th, 2021, 6:54 pm

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1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.

2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.

I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.

Thoughts?

Statistics: Posted by ikicker — September 16th, 2021, 6:49 pm

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Highly recommended!

PS. Now I believe Brexit really happened. I had to pay my customs duty for my copies.

Statistics: Posted by gatarek — September 16th, 2021, 8:39 am

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Internal memos show how a big 2018 change rewarded outrage and that CEO Mark Zuckerberg resisted proposed fixes

Statistics: Posted by tagoma — September 16th, 2021, 6:47 am

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Expect lots of rich people to now wear similar statements. It simply screams "I'm rich. I'm cool. Ain't gonna happen anyway."

Statistics: Posted by Paul — September 16th, 2021, 1:12 am

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