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by Paul
Today, 9:29 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Philosophy of Mathematics
Replies: 512
Views: 152244

Re: Philosophy of Mathematics

Can one reverse engineer AI to find out what someone, Cuch, say, “said” to ChatGPT to write so eloquently?
by Paul
Today, 9:24 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

kat, this sounds like something that could be simulated. Could you do a simulation and upload it here?
by Paul
September 15th, 2025, 7:06 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Machine learning for fun, to pay your rent or whatever
Replies: 380
Views: 54253

Re: Machine learning for fun, to pay your rent or whatever

I, for one, welcome our new AI overlords!
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41928-025-01433-y
They already can see us and soon they’re coming :-O
ChatGPT tells me to Vote Labour! https://wilmott.com/chatgpt-tells-me-wh ... -election/ 
by Paul
September 15th, 2025, 6:51 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Stupid question of the day
Replies: 3435
Views: 428234

Re: Stupid question of the day

I tend not to google myself! But I do get other PW's emails, which is fascinating.
by Paul
September 11th, 2025, 11:39 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: What is Starmerism?
Replies: 185
Views: 10940

Re: What is Starmerism?

The most unpleasant politician, Mandelson, gone. The Prince of Darkness is not being resurrected from this one.

Everyone enjoying our government? It won’t make much of a movie, as everything has been predictable from the moment Starmer became Labour leader.
by Paul
September 2nd, 2025, 10:14 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: norway
Replies: 964
Views: 191114

Re: norway

It is possible to post, sort of. It's the whole CloudFlare security thing. (You might have noticed that the number of sites using CloudFlare has exploded in the last year or so, probably for the same reason we now use it.)  If you get one of those "Verify you are human" messages then after...
by Paul
August 27th, 2025, 9:31 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

Also, plot var vs previous period’s z and vice versa.

Also, if there’s this relationship for period T and for period T+1 then what does say about what happens at time T+1?
by Paul
August 27th, 2025, 6:44 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

I want to know how to simulate all this. Could you plot the following two pictures? 1. Pick T = 20 days, say. Now plot variance over those 20 days vs z (as already done) but join the dots chronologically. And only do about 50 dots, or whatever is not too messy. 2. Same as above but instead of a roll...
by Paul
August 26th, 2025, 4:14 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

kat is one of the few people on the planet who is capable of understanding this model, and willing to understand this model.
by Paul
August 15th, 2025, 6:32 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

The goal is to convince people to take this seriously! They will dismiss it out of hand, but you don’t want to make it easy for them!
by Paul
August 15th, 2025, 5:38 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

Yes, shrinking data is obviously an issue. But it is supposed to work for each T individually. That it works on average is not as impressive. How about holding T fixed and include all stocks from the same sector, for example? Can you tweak the app to allow selection of more than one stock?
by Paul
August 15th, 2025, 4:58 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott
Replies: 31
Views: 1274

Re: David Orrell's q-variance paper in Wilmott

David has produced this app, that shows what is going on: https://david-systemsforecasting.shinyapps.io/qvar/ Try the following: 1. Select "walk" (lognormal) with the default 1-12 weeks chosen. It's not quick. You'll see David's theory (red line) and simulation results (blue). No match. 2....
by Paul
August 13th, 2025, 6:14 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Stupid question of the day
Replies: 3435
Views: 428234

Re: Stupid question of the day

If I ever felt lucky I'd be out buying lottery tickets not googling.
by Paul
July 31st, 2025, 3:30 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Marxism But Were Afraid To Ask Jeremy Corbyn
Replies: 73
Views: 37372

Re: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Marxism But Were Afraid To Ask Jeremy Corbyn

I signed up as soon as they launched. Didn't have to pay a penny. Everything is free in Socialist World.

I also joined the Labour Party and voted for Corbyn to be leader. 

Some say that Socialists don't understand how the world works. I say, great!
by Paul
July 20th, 2025, 3:57 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Glastonbury 2009 - Wilmott Special Report
Replies: 35
Views: 39880

Re: Glastonbury 2009 - Wilmott Special Report

In the caption of their post, the Belfast and Derry group said: "One element of the political policing intimidation attempt is over. Well, they would, wouldn't they? Dur. They're hardly going to say, "We're a group of idiots, with limited critical-thinking skills, trying desprately to be ...