<t>You are very right @bearish: I have used a simplified formula. However, it seems that the American oil market is not in contango/just the international one is, so the American traders do not intend to sit on the oil, but rather empty the tanks. For exemple the oil tanks in Cushing peaked at more ...

<t>In my opinion there is nothing to be worried about, as there is a settlement of spot crude oil price as a virtual exchange currency via the Thai bacht, from the American dollar to the Russian ruble. Nobody really has the actual paper/coin/string of bits but both America, China, Russia and OPEC ar...

<r>As @PaperCut simplified (futures) = (spot) x exp[(cost of carry) x (time)]with(cost of carry) = (risk free rate) - ("convenience" yield)When I am looking at the prices of the crude oil futures I see that they are continuously increasing with time to expiry (<URL url="http://www.cmegroup.com/tradi...

120+

<t>Risk neutral probabilities make the prises consistent (your pricing is compatible with the prices of other contracts in the market). I am just curious which real-risk probabilities method is used for derivatives (the drift does not cancel away in the actual applied formula). In the convertible bo...

<t>You have a basket of default swaps with a lot of n'th to default. There are normally about 2, but not N.>>2.When you have the first default in the first scenario you'l have Tau_1_1, and you'll have Tau_1,2 for the second -to- default. The time between t_j_i = Tau_j_i and Tau_j_(i+1) is the time o...

<t>Real world probabilities are used in forecasting the future (porfolio management).Risk neutral probabilities are used in getting the market price (derivatives pricing).Isn't it non-consistent to put so much effort in calibrating your models, to replicate the real world, and then to use risk neutr...

<t> "We probably need a clearing house?"Definitely. If you can remove all the other intermediaries you do need a clearing house. And not any bank, but a proper central counterparty, to guarantee you that you have the settlement. It is exactly what is missing now. The selling-sites were sort of centr...

right. Thanks again

Thanks a lot Martinghoul. Could you, please, send me the exact link to the page containing the CUSIP numbers? I was looking on all the 3 links there, and could not find the needed file

<t>When a bank offers you a loan with a certain interest rate, your own credit risk is taken into account. If you enter a SWAP having as result lowering the rate you pay does not this mean that you trade the decrease in IR (on both sides of the SWAP) against additional credit risk? If not, the fact ...

for the fiat currency there is an organization that takes care that its value does not swing 10% per day. With an indipendent currency, I can't see how you'd guarantee its value stable-ish.

If you enter in a swap due to some comparative advantage, don't you have an increase in credit risk in exchange of lowering your rate?

I have to test some MBS pricing software and I am in need of some real CUSIP numbers for actual (non-expired) Mortgage Backed Securities.Does it happen you to know where I can find some? (Eventually with some description of the underlying MBS)

<t>As I have understood, to autheticate a bitcoin, one keeps its complete history, since inception. With respect to heavily usage (if it was to be a currency), it would need a size-exploding memory.Having a non-centralized currency is a great idea (but not new), as it cuts many intermediate costs. B...