<t>In Malaysia, Bangladeshis generally tend to the gas stations, in Germany, folks hire Polish workers for carpentry works which would otherwise cost an arm and a leg if using the "legal" route. The illegal workers earn their pay and send it back home to their families, otherwise, they would not eve...

For the theory and inter-temporal model of bubbles, do check out this book:Barro, Robert J. and Sala-i-Martin, Xavier (1995). Economic growth. McGraw-Hill, Boston, Mass.

"All religions, arts and sciences are branches of the same tree. All these aspirations are directed toward ennobling man's life, lifting it from the sphere of mere physical existence and leading the individual towards freedom."

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: ManThank you Aaron and Amni,And still wondering if ARCH/GARCH is good at predicating future vol.You're welcome. As to your question, it depends. (G)ARCH modelling is half science and especially, half art. It can either describe your data well (if you go by t-statistics ...

<t>Through out time, a process can have drift, normally represented by (a) dt. However, a martingale is a zero-drift stochastic process. For example, Theta follows a martingale if the process follows the form d(Theta) = (Sigma) dz. (dz is a Wiener process). (Let me guess, you also want to know what ...

For a quick run of cointegration, try E-views econometrics software. Very easy to use and simple lay out of output. -Effective.

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: tw<blockquote>As a general question, on the subject of recovery rates and default; is it true that in the event of default, all creditors have equal claims on their debts, regardless of maturity? i.e. if some entity issues a one year and a ten year zero coupon bond, the...

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: Hamilton<blockquote>General George Patton was prevented in WW2 from marching on Moscow. No doubt many innocents would have died. But the Black Book of Communism [Mitrochin Archive] is a chilling testament to the consequences of saying no.1.Is there then such a book such...

Sorry Johnny -I should have been clearer...I was just trying to make a joke about Andersen...

<t>I've just seen the news, some US ex-attorney general (don't ask me who) made a few points:1. Iraq was badly beaten last Gulf war and at the time, they just took it without doing anything. (I recalled that if it was not for Powell calling back the troops, many more Iraq troops would have been slau...

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: tbondsInteresting that someone brought up correlation between EDF and LGD. There's some literature out there, most notably by Edward Altman (of Z-score fame), that implies that as EDFs go up, LGD goes up. Historically, there's been a positive correlation between prob(de...

More questions - can probability of default for a firm be cyclical, and if so, why?

<t>Thanks KO, you're ok! err..one more question...if this were the case, that they are correlated, what would happen in the face of bankruptcy when a company's rating is being downgraded rapidly? Is it a catch-22 where rating goes down, recovery rate down and hence probability of default goes up, an...

If default and recovery rates are correlated, how would this affect expected loss given default and other measurements?

<t>I disagree Alkur, I think Frodo is courageous not a coward- for a hobbit who is a creature of habit (no pun intended), to leave everything that is comfortable and familiar for a purpose far nobler than oneself...I don't think many of us can give a claim to that...By the way, dare I ask - has anyo...