Here's a thought.  The obvious best witness to testify before congress in this inquiry would be Ukraine Pres. Zelensky. I suspect both sides would like to hear from him.  I bet he would come. Probably he should be given some courtesy like not being sworn in or immunity or something similar.   Would ...

Just a thought to get started. You could first do a simple (zero-intercept) regression using the regular session (log)-returns, say at whatever frequency is convenient: [$] R^{VIX}_t = \beta R^{SPX}_t + \epsilon_t[$]. Then, the predicted overnight returns, at the same frequency, could be [$] R^{VIX}...

So, what will happen next?
retroactive House vote  -- or that ship has sailed?

I think I know how to settle this dispute:
 a battle of wits (you have to imagine Melania as the hostage  )

In a not unexpected plot twist, Trump and his administration will simply ignore the impeachment inquiry. Because it doesn’t make him look good...

My take:
Trump to House democrats: F**k you
House democrats: "Wait ... can they do that!?"

Nice editorial today by Peggy Noonan in WSJ. Since it's behind a paywall, here's an extended excerpt: " … Mr. Schiff’s weakness, at least in public, appears to be lack of judgment. You could see it last week in his questioning of the acting director of national intelligence. Joseph Maguire had been ...

You would have to be kind of nuts to write a document like this without consulting a lawyer. Fair enough. Certainly the lawyer gets kudos for arranging for  protective custody . But, what you don't want is for the lawyer to be a ghostwriter. p.s. Wow, I knew lawyers can get quite specialized -- asb...

If I have any philosophical leanings it's "You do what you want and leave me alone." In contrast to the Socialist "You do what I want, and we'll see how it turns out."

You will likely enjoy Adam Carolla (local-to-me comedian): Don't Make Things Worse 
I know I do.

Re a post in another thread where I linked to an NYT article "The Whistleblower knows how to write". Now, it turns out there may have been a lawyer involved in the writing of it: NYT: Schiff got early account ... The House staff member, following the committee’s procedures, suggested the (whistleblo...

Where I live (Newport Beach) is safe because Kim's friend Dennis Rodman lives here. Most at risk is probably Burbank (28th district), which is why A.S. is not going on break! 

The Trump thread is going OT, I'm afraid.  OK, place your bets. The Whistleblower's name will be leaked in ___ days. I'll start:  3 days Trump's first reaction will be to call the CIA director and get him fired. But, cooler heads will tell him if he does that, the Senate vote may go the other way. ...

Nice piece in the NYT: The Whistle-Blower Knows How to Write

Thanks for the link. Yes, what I ended up doing is mixtures of normals.

I can already hear Bill Maher on Friday: "Gee, I always hoped a comedian could take down the White House, but I thought it would be me!"

NASA image of the day: Saturn's moon Tethys. NASA said:
"Like a drop of dew hanging on a leaf, Tethys appears to be stuck to Saturn's A and F rings from this perspective in this 2014 image from the Casini mission":

The issue seems to be whether (non-optimal) early exercise is, on balance, a risk or a bonus/windfall to an existent hedging plan. If it's a bonus, you don't need to alter the plan. If it's a risk, you're going to have to weigh it against other risks -- which also might lead you to not alter the pla...