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by KL
January 26th, 2006, 4:46 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: R-square issue
Replies: 8
Views: 122537

R-square issue

<t>A t-test the significance of a variable individually.,The F-test test the significance of a set of variables jointly. So if our model was y = x1 + x2 + error terms. We would have two T-test results and one F test result. The F-test of all the variables (i.e. X1 and X2) is equivalent to testing th...
by KL
January 26th, 2006, 2:49 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: what are major statistical macro models?
Replies: 10
Views: 124004

what are major statistical macro models?

<t>As for macro modelsStructural based models tend to be a whole system of equations based on various economic relationships. These systems would tie in the monetary sector, real sector, etc, etc in a whole system of equations. Just think of it as multiple regressions run simultaneously. Some calibr...
by KL
January 26th, 2006, 2:39 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: what are major statistical macro models?
Replies: 10
Views: 124004

what are major statistical macro models?

<t>Econometric methods tend to be either Time series models (under ARIMA, Cointegaration method) or Cross Sectional (Latent variable, Logit...regression method).You are either studying a variable across time or you are studying a person/country/? behaviour across several variables.Panel methods allo...
by KL
January 2nd, 2006, 5:24 pm
Forum: Careers Forum
Topic: CFA 1 materials
Replies: 5
Views: 125453

CFA 1 materials

<t>How are the Stalla Notes compared with Scheswers?Not sure, since i never used Stella -suppose to be a bit tougher on the questions. i think.Schweser is fine as I used it at Level 1 and 2., Stopped there since I realised the CFA was quite useless in my line of work.The knowledge of course always h...
by KL
January 1st, 2006, 3:07 am
Forum: Careers Forum
Topic: CFA 1 materials
Replies: 5
Views: 125453

CFA 1 materials

<t>materials should be enough, but for areas where you may be weak at e.g. accounting get the textbook as added material.Since accounting is such a big component - good to review that as an extra. I assume stats, derivatives is a a walk in the park for you since they are so basic. BTW the questions ...
by KL
November 23rd, 2005, 10:09 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Log of variable
Replies: 6
Views: 129878

Log of variable

<t>If i am not mistaken a log variable also has a different interpretation. The variable is no longer interpreted at the levels but as a rate of change(%). So for a semi log function of Y = ln(X1) + c. For a 1% change in X1 leads to a x unit change in Y. We usually logs when we wish to interpret the...
by KL
November 23rd, 2005, 9:55 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: forecasting
Replies: 4
Views: 130657

forecasting

<t>It depends on the objective. If the objective is to get overall company revenue. Then adding all the values at once would be better - Occam's Razor - simpler is better.However if your objective is to understand the individual product revenue dynamics - especially if you believe that the true rela...
by KL
August 18th, 2005, 10:41 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Logit and intercept term
Replies: 6
Views: 140020

Logit and intercept term

<t>I;ve done the same research before, and your question made me go back and rethink what my results were.My results showed that the intercept played a very strong role. both in terms of the size of the coefficient and the T-stats significance level.If I recall upon deeper investigation, we found th...
by KL
August 18th, 2005, 10:22 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Query:Probit vs Logit in Credit Models like RiskCalc
Replies: 1
Views: 138524

Query:Probit vs Logit in Credit Models like RiskCalc

<t>I think RIskCalc uses a non-linear logit - which is really many univariate-like logit regressions and then combined. the probit is a normal dist and logit is a logistic dist. the logistic dist has slighltly fatter tails than the normal distribution.As for the output - there is no practical differ...
by KL
May 7th, 2005, 2:40 am
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Forecasting Technique
Replies: 12
Views: 152621

Forecasting Technique

by KL
May 5th, 2005, 2:40 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Multinomial Logit
Replies: 1
Views: 153201

Multinomial Logit

<t>You cannot do multinomial logir under Eviews. Eviews is predominantly a time series econometrics package. Less suitable for multinomial and nested logit models. LIMDEP is one of the predominant packages for multinomial logit models. You can try SAS or SPSS as well. (but you have to check)I would ...
by KL
February 25th, 2005, 1:41 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Research topics in Risk Management
Replies: 18
Views: 191881

Research topics in Risk Management

<t>>What about historical testing/backtesting? Well just cause the model was successful in predicting the past does not mean it will perform as well predicting the future. Certain events may not have occured which would have caused the model to fall apart. Models backtested before the asian crisis a...
by KL
January 21st, 2005, 4:22 am
Forum: Programming and Software Forum
Topic: Data model - risk data mart
Replies: 1
Views: 162523

Data model - risk data mart

<t>I need to develop specs for a risk data mart and review some vendor datamarts.My concern is their adequacy of their data models. Many IT companies may not necessarily have thought throught the business and operational issues. Since I'm not in the best position to know about data models, does anyo...
by KL
January 4th, 2005, 3:18 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Application of Financial Engineering in Islamic Finance
Replies: 5
Views: 165526

Application of Financial Engineering in Islamic Finance

<t>HSBC in Malaysia are getting to be pretty active in it. I hear Citibank was active in it, but decided to delay post 9/11, but HSBC quick surge prompted a lot of foreign banks including Citi to jump start and get moving again. StandChart has started to move in as well. In general, M'sian market is...
by KL
December 7th, 2004, 10:42 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Prediction accuracy statistics
Replies: 28
Views: 193078

Prediction accuracy statistics

<t>70% does give room for healthy skepticism. But I would think keeping and open mind is important. So maybe they exagerrated and the predictive accuracy within the bands was 60% instead. That's still makes it a useful too. I wouldn't say that all such technologies overfit.Don;t throw the baby out w...