<t>Vixen,Part 2 no problem for you I see ... all that's missing is a link to the answer for the hedging problem ;-)Please find attached a price trace for this week's Cup match Southend v Manchester United showing the exchange price and my model's estimates.For example the dark green crosses are the ...

<t>Hedgers,Those of you who enjoyed Paul's 'Optimality in Horse Racing' might like to give the following problem some thought. Not sure whether it's a student question or a brainteaser or off topic ... might even be a good candidate test!You have a model which estimates the chances of WIN-DRAW-LOSS ...

<t>EnergyQuant,Why lay the favourite alone? Why not lay all the market leaders?Did you perform any calculations about the size of the back/lay?I'd guess something like Paul's spreadsheet from 'Optimality In Horse Racing' would be in order ... especially if you had your own odds line to hand ...Soc. ...

<t>The following monthly data download is advertised ... though if you've rung and been told 'no' then I'm not sure why!1. Navigate to www.betfair.com;2. Click on the Forum menu item in the top centre panel;3. Click on API Products from the left hand menu;4. Click on Historical Data Downloads in the...

<r>A few books:"How To Gamble If You Must" Dubbins and Savage (classic on subfair gambling)"The Science of Winning" Fabricand (not much maths. but an interesting angle)"An Introduction To Probability Theory and Its Applications" Feller contains the orientation and analysis for several gambling probl...

<t>M,These VBA macros should stop people cutting/copying and pasting when your course workbook is open.Run DisableCutAndPaste from a suitable event procedure e.g. Workbook_Open or Worksheet_Activate... and EnableCutAndPaste from another e.g. Workbook_Close or Worksheet_Deactivate. Sub DisableCutAndP...

<r>A bookmaker attempts to attract new customers by offering '1/3 cashback on all cumulative settled stakes minus returns' for a single month only. The maximum cashback amount is £1,000. How would you exploit this unwonted generosity? A few non-exhaustive pointers on 'the market' for those who have ...

<t>Aaron,'All of them put together must have more than 0.06 probability.'If everyone thought the bookmakers odds were always accurate then there would be no betting!'Now your friend can breathe a little easier.'He has relaxed after cashing out with 2 semifinal hedges.'The model is extremely accurate...

<t>Thanks Aaron,The best odds available from various sources at the end of April allowed the following allocation:Team Price Bet------------------------France 4/1 21.38Argentina 9/2 19.43Italy 6 15.27Brazil 7.5 12.57Spain 10 9.72England 12 8.22Portugal 14 7.13Germany 16 6.29 ---- 100 ----each team t...

<t>I propose the title of MASTER in the oriental sense ...- "a master is one who started before you did"- "He begins from the centre and not from the fringe. He imparts an understanding of the basic principles and art before going on to the meticulous details."... and noting Aaron's 'entry' into the...

<t>Hedgers,Suppose I have a friend who considers himself an expert in football.He has dutched up the original 8 favourites for the tournament to win £6.88K using a stake of £100K (75% of his capital) - i.e. he has 'allocated assets' to return £6.88K no matter which of his 8 selections wins.He thinks...

<r>Aaron,Agreed - or rather I follow what sounds like excellent advice in an area where I have no expertise.Q. If I have done my analysis of the raw data based on on good understanding of the underlying subject matter, and come up with a set of favourable opportunities, are you suggesting I employ n...

<t>Aaron,I really liked your bedtime story: the central idea of selecting one’s own payback distribution is terrific. I shall in future swap the possibility of uncertain but possibly very large gains via Kelly, for an ‘almost certain’ modest return, lightly leveraged.I’m a bit out of my depth in the...

<r>Randomisers,How about this site for genuine random numbers?<URL url="http://www.fourmilab.ch/hotbits/I">http://www.fourmilab.ch/hotbits/I</URL> liked the simulated geiger clicks whose frequency increases if you run your cursor over ... the updating radiation logo.I've absolutely no idea if it wou...

Thanks again.

I see how you swap risk for return.

Have I missed Dr. Z's article on hedging - can't find it anywhere on-site - and the series started last July!

Best wishes,
Soc.