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by Herd
March 31st, 2020, 7:05 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Prof Raoult’s first paper
Replies: 0
Views: 108

Prof Raoult’s first paper

Prof Raoult from Marseille is one of the top researchers in the world on infectious diseases. In Marseille, they’re testing as many people as they can and treat them. The treatment is the combination of two drugs (hydroxychloroquine and azitthromycin). It is after having heard from the Marseille sto...
by Herd
March 26th, 2020, 10:04 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

New imperial paper: see link on Ferguson Twitter
by Herd
March 26th, 2020, 8:49 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

Maybe the difference between countries is not small (eg maybe Italy being the most affected is not chance, maybe it’s connected to elderly people living with a child and grandchildren )
by Herd
March 25th, 2020, 6:42 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

The Oxford study mentioned in the FT
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j ... 9.pdf?dl=0
by Herd
March 24th, 2020, 7:37 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

What to do?

1. Check the numerical implementation?
2, Discuss assumptions that could be ok for flu but not for that virus in other words is that flu model appropriate for that virus)
3. Estimation of inputs
by Herd
March 24th, 2020, 7:17 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

According to the FT Some professor Gupta from Oxford has led a study saying that maybe half of the U.K. population got it and said “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Inperial model”.

Couldn’t find the paper.
Google Oxford study coronavirus to find the FT article
by Herd
March 24th, 2020, 2:01 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

Will try to look at link.

Another thought: we talk a lot about number of deaths etc but the number of people in intensive care is important too as a person in intensive care takes a bed and also there could be consequences in the future (maybe lungs not as good as before?)
by Herd
March 24th, 2020, 7:01 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

I’m curious about the impact of a policy that would forbid people older than M years old to go to pubs, restaurants, any gathering etc (and same for people who live with them but hard to put in place). Another interesting output, instead of the number of deaths, would be to somehow take into account...
by Herd
March 23rd, 2020, 11:35 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

I meant the ratio of corona deaths per corona cases is low in Germany. There was a guardian article a few days ago exploring different possible explanations. In all countries as far as I’m aware the people told to stay at home with symptoms are not counted as cases because they’re not tested. (In Ko...
by Herd
March 23rd, 2020, 9:24 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

Every applied mathematician, numerical analyst and programmer is about to jump on Ferguson's neck!
Haha!
My understanding is that his simulations were important in these social distancing decisions. But it seems strange that such decisions would be based on simulations of one single team?
by Herd
March 23rd, 2020, 9:15 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

What is the list of inputs?
I will post them in the next few days.
Thank you.

It seems there is massive uncertainty on some of them. Mortality rate is super low in Germany, people with symptoms staying at home are not counted, how many people have it with no symptoms....?
by Herd
March 23rd, 2020, 7:47 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 235
Views: 6392

Re: Models for Covid-19

What is the list of inputs?
by Herd
December 12th, 2019, 6:10 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 390
Views: 16730

Re: General Election 2019

Is the change from 42% probability to 90% probability in one day related to linear extrapolation?
by Herd
November 26th, 2019, 7:49 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 390
Views: 16730

Re: General Election 2019

I think there should be more things only accessible to the rich. Otherwise there’s no point in working. It makes some sense to increase the CC
100% inheritance tax?
Salaries proportional to hours of work done?
Get rid of the status of prince Andrew and his family?

Now that’s radical!
by Herd
November 25th, 2019, 12:29 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 390
Views: 16730

Re: General Election 2019

Over the last few weeks, Johnathan Steele and Peter Hitchens have revealed that the OPCW report about the Douma attacks had been sexed up Iraq style. But this time most media have done the “no news” strategy: don’t report on things that don’t suit their agenda. I find it extremely depressing that so...
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