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by clement14
June 29th, 2004, 10:00 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: (probability question) how to play this gamble?
Replies: 17
Views: 187274

(probability question) how to play this gamble?

<t>this gamble becomes:A: Winning probability=0.5: 1 to 2B: Winning probability=0.3: 1 to 3C: Winning probability=0.2: 1 to 6X=2.7777, I just gain $100; or X=2, I reserve $28, I also gain $100? right? Is X must a integer?This is risk neutral. But I can't gain more money. Could I have better strategy...
by clement14
June 28th, 2004, 8:55 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: (probability question) how to play this gamble?
Replies: 17
Views: 187274

(probability question) how to play this gamble?

Thanks for your response. I also think Halliron's idea is good. He will earn risk-free return. Could you tell me how to calculate $112 and allocate your money in A, B and C. Thank you in advance.
by clement14
June 28th, 2004, 8:41 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: (probability question) how to play this gamble?
Replies: 17
Views: 187274

(probability question) how to play this gamble?

But this gamble becomes:A: Winning probability=0.5: 1 to 2B: Winning probability=0.3: 1 to 3C: Winning probability=0.2: 1 to 6how to allocate your money?(B's expected return is less than 1)
by clement14
June 28th, 2004, 8:06 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: (probability question) how to play this gamble?
Replies: 17
Views: 187274

(probability question) how to play this gamble?

I will just choose C, because of its high expected return. And I will just put $1 to play this game each time. I can play 100 times to make sure that I maybe get expected return, $140. This idea is good or not?
by clement14
June 28th, 2004, 5:03 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: (probability question) how to play this gamble?
Replies: 17
Views: 187274

(probability question) how to play this gamble?

<t>A gamble, three outcomes:A: Winning probability=0.5: 1 to 2B: Winning probability=0.3: 1 to 4C: Winning probability=0.2: 1 to 7you can choose A, B or C; or choose two or three of them, and you can reserve some cash or not in this game. If you have $100, how do you play this game?(assume you can g...
by clement14
May 23rd, 2004, 4:35 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)
Replies: 9
Views: 190205

Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)

ha~ha~sorry, my presentation is not very good.Does anyone understand my question?Thank you, Graeme, to look at my strange question once again.
by clement14
May 23rd, 2004, 1:15 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)
Replies: 9
Views: 190205

Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)

If the payoff is right, Call=max{0,(S1-S2)-X,(S3-S2)-X}then we can say the payoff is wrong, Call=max{0,(S3-S2)-X,(S3-S1)-X} or Call=max{0,(S1-S2)-X,(S3-S1)-X}because "dual spread " assumes that (S3-S1) is right, (S1-S2), (S3-S2) are mispricing. that's my thought, but I think a little strange.
by clement14
May 22nd, 2004, 12:26 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)
Replies: 9
Views: 190205

Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)

I can write this payoffCall=max{0,(S1-S2)-X,(S3-S2)-X,(S3-S1)-X}but it is seemly invalid, but I don't know why can't I write this kind of payoff?
by clement14
May 22nd, 2004, 2:56 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Wilmott said"stochastic correlation model" in multi-asset options
Replies: 3
Views: 189403

Wilmott said"stochastic correlation model" in multi-asset options

hi, JJust in his book, derivertives(1998) Ch.11.
by clement14
May 21st, 2004, 5:45 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Wilmott said"stochastic correlation model" in multi-asset options
Replies: 3
Views: 189403

Wilmott said"stochastic correlation model" in multi-asset options

<t>We can use stochastic correlation model in multi-asset options, but this approach has its own "problems". I don't know what problem? I think the problems are model risk, mean-reverting speed problem or every asset has its pattern(characteristics), if we combine them will cause many kinds of model...
by clement14
May 21st, 2004, 5:22 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)
Replies: 9
Views: 190205

Three asset spread options (Dual spread options)

Three asset spread options(dual spread options) payoff isCall=max{0,(S1-S2)-X,(S3-S2)-X}Why not have {(S3-S1)-X}?Could you tell me why? Thank you.
by clement14
April 1st, 2004, 11:23 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Monte Carlo(Sobol) v.s. VBA
Replies: 4
Views: 190405

Monte Carlo(Sobol) v.s. VBA

THANK YOU. I will try it.
by clement14
March 25th, 2004, 2:12 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Monte Carlo(Sobol) v.s. VBA
Replies: 4
Views: 190405

Monte Carlo(Sobol) v.s. VBA

thank you.http://www.broda.co.uk this website is work.
by clement14
March 24th, 2004, 9:06 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Monte Carlo(Sobol) v.s. VBA
Replies: 4
Views: 190405

Monte Carlo(Sobol) v.s. VBA

I hope to pricing multi-asset options. I need to use Monte Carlo in Sobol method. Could you tell me any paper, internet resources or VBA code about Monte Carlo in Sobol method. Thank you very much!