Mensa, agree on you call with lite sweet, the problem is at the refineries not at the oil wells. MArekt fails to realise crude and refined products are different

<r>MC simulation will not give you a range of possible paths a derivative can take. MC simulation is basically just another way to model data and estimate parameters. In a statistical sense what you are doing is taking what is called a prior distribution and then running a whole lot of simulations w...

<t>I believe logs do improve the accuracy of monte carlo simulations. When considering the prior distribution it is often useful to think of scale parameters in terms of logs because then a scale transformation which is multiplicative will become additive in logs. Often the priors used will correspo...

They just come from different places, so they are different quality.ITs based upon what the crude oil can be broken up into when refined.On this subject is there anyone out there doing any research on oil markets or oil futures? Im interested in doing some oil futures modelling.

<t>Excel/VBA is alot more popular in practice. Infact most investment banks will use the VBA software to run macros through excel for modelling and forecasting simply cause its a common language and the software comes with the office package.However, in academic circles id say excel is rarely used f...

Does anyone know a website where i can download data sets which are appropriate for fitting logistic regression models.Thanks

<t>Most investment banks will refer to an IPO as a "HOT issue" when they have so much demand from clients that they will allocate a set dollar amount to each client regardless. Eg- $10K per client. I woudl not define a HOT issue as one that is oversubscribed, as the difference between "oversubscribe...

<t>This would occur before and after market. the market is in pre-open which allows bids and asks to be placed on either side of the market and then a "match " price is calculated based ont eh relevant bid and asks placed. This sometimes occurs when the market is open after a company announcement, w...

Oh and by bulk and fixed contract commodities i am referring to comodities such as iron ore and coal. I am more interested in researching commodities which are traded in futures contracts on active exchanges

<t>In terms of math/statistical knowledge i am currently completing relevant courses at university, however i have a sound understanding of regression modelling and econometrics. I am currently using the stata econometrics package, however i will be learning matlab and possible visual basic before d...

<t>Hi all,I am currently seeking a topic to complete for an honours thesis next year. I am interested in researching either energy (oil and gas) or commodity markets which will most probably involve using data on energy and commodity futures rather than spot prices, although i am interested in possi...