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by Afth
September 13th, 2008, 9:29 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model
Replies: 13
Views: 50287

Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: mjYou can use moment matching to ensure that the sample mean and variance are precisely what you want.Ah, yes, sorry, that is one of the possibilities I was thinking about as well . However, what makes me a bit hesitant is that you actually really adjust the stochastic ...
by Afth
September 12th, 2008, 7:56 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model
Replies: 13
Views: 50287

Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: mjIf you can manipulate the paths after drawing, map them to log space, and then add \mu t to them to get the desired final mean. You could also scale the distance from the mean to get desired variance.Sorry, I don't think I understand what you're trying to point out? <...
by Afth
September 12th, 2008, 7:52 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model
Replies: 13
Views: 50287

Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model

My results (with sigma=0.2 and T=75):Indeed 10^5 simulations already looks quite nice.
by Afth
September 12th, 2008, 6:42 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model
Replies: 13
Views: 50287

Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model

<t>Yes, I agree deltaT (or dt) is irrelevant by the scaling property of Brownian motion.Maybe I should explain a bit more that the original situation is that the paths are generated by a (closed source) third party application that basically only allows to change some parameters, so I won't be able ...
by Afth
September 12th, 2008, 5:58 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model
Replies: 13
Views: 50287

Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model

<t>Thanks Alan, I'll have a look . To reply to your edit, yes with your simplification to set interest rate constant it is just standard Black & Scholes. I'll get back to your questions in more detail when I'm back at work Monday, I can't access the data right now. What I can say already is that...
by Afth
September 12th, 2008, 5:24 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: A few questions on probability theory
Replies: 10
Views: 51073

A few questions on probability theory

Yes, but that doesn't say a lot about E|B_t| of course. Imagine X_n taking value n with prob. 1/2 and -n with prob. 1/2, then E[X_n]=0 for all n while E|X_n| -> \infty as n \to \infty.Indeed Brownian motion is *not* uniformly integrable!
by Afth
September 12th, 2008, 5:11 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model
Replies: 13
Views: 50287

Improve results MC simulations for long horizon BS-model

<t>Dear all,imagine a typical situation in an insurance company: a large pile of future cashfllows (all kinds of characteristics) on a long horizon (say 70 units (years)) programmed in a projection system. This system needs to be fed with paths generated by a model describing the evolution of a stoc...
by Afth
May 24th, 2005, 4:06 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock
Replies: 6
Views: 148615

Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock

It still seems to be difficult to find explicit expressions that are being used. One I came across for modelling the hazard rate p as a fct. of the stock price S is p(S) = p_0 * (S/S_0)^a for some p_0 and a < -1. Any comments to that one?
by Afth
May 24th, 2005, 11:15 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock
Replies: 6
Views: 148615

Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock

QuoteOriginally posted by: madmaxAll the ones I cited use reduced form models for credit risk.They all use finite difference schemes.There is also a paper using Monte Carlo by Lvov Yigitbasioglu and El Bachir testing the Longstaff and Schwartz method.Thanks so far for the refs
by Afth
May 24th, 2005, 11:13 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock
Replies: 6
Views: 148615

Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: nyamazaniHi,Why don't you use a first passage model (where company defaults as soon as its asset value falls below a certain level)...I know asset vaue and stock price are not the same thing but it might be worth looking into...(Do you want the deault time or the probab...
by Afth
May 24th, 2005, 9:27 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock
Replies: 6
Views: 148615

Modelling default risk with intensity dep. on stock

<t>Hi guys,I'm a PhD-student in financ. maths currently working on (callable) convertible bonds in a reduced form model and I'm looking for a sensible but (in my model and way of (numerically) solving) tractable way to incorporate some default risk. Since it's reduced form, I basically only model th...