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by Randor
May 15th, 2020, 3:49 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Economic suspension
Replies: 12
Views: 2514

Re: Economic suspension

sorry writing a month late but anyway, * we already see this economic suspension, in the REAL economy lockdowns, but i guess you are talking for some much more extended period * in the financial economy, nothing has stopped.   * there have been bailouts to both wall st and main st, sometimes as hand...
by Randor
March 25th, 2020, 12:11 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Deflation
Replies: 9
Views: 2068

Re: Deflation

Yes thats true
Eg oil falling,
But other stuff that's imported for example may go up in price because of supply chain slow down, FX rate fall,
by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 10:59 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Modified Duration
Replies: 4
Views: 3809

Re: Modified Duration

Dvo1 is change in price for a 1bp shift in the floating interest rates used to price your trade
by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 10:47 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Deflation
Replies: 9
Views: 2068

Re: Deflation

On the contrary, both the left and the right stick firmly to the monetarists school dogmas. At all times mortified about the balancing of the sacred budget as if the nation were on the verge of being sold into debt bondage! MMT explains to us the incredible fact that without budget deficits we actua...
by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 10:27 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Deflation
Replies: 9
Views: 2068

Re: Deflation

The scenario we have here as I see it , and I am no expert at all, is really like a scenario of a war, where there is a massive jolt to the real economy. We have a force majeure catastrophe event, which will cause huge unemployment, but only for say a number of months until the virus has run its cou...
by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 10:08 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Deflation
Replies: 9
Views: 2068

Re: Deflation

It's strange that people still take seriously the economists in their ivory towers that never imagined in their wildest nightmares that the GFC 2008-2019 financial crisis could happen, ie that people still give those particular economists the time of day is just amazing! There is a whole array of di...
by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 3:57 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Modified Duration
Replies: 4
Views: 3809

Re: Modified Duration

duration is dv01/price , where price is the PV of the leg, assuming notional exchange at the end.
to do it for a swap , you calc this dv01 for each leg, calc durartion for each leg , then subtract the 2 durations to get your final number
by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 3:16 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Hyperinflation
Replies: 14
Views: 3340

Re: Hyperinflation

by Randor
March 23rd, 2020, 3:13 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Deflation
Replies: 9
Views: 2068

Re: Deflation

hahaha!
not sure if you are serious though really
by Randor
March 21st, 2020, 5:20 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Hyperinflation
Replies: 14
Views: 3340

Re: Hyperinflation

Sorry if I have offended
by Randor
March 21st, 2020, 4:37 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Hyperinflation
Replies: 14
Views: 3340

Re: Hyperinflation

PS read #mmt Really! Try out some SFC (stock flow consistent) modelling. It is the only way to honestly model economics without bringing in nonsense assumptions and maintaining a correct understanding of how fiat money is created and used in the modern world since 1973). ( Except for the European co...
by Randor
March 21st, 2020, 4:29 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Hyperinflation
Replies: 14
Views: 3340

Re: Hyperinflation

The great depression happened when demand dropped down
by Randor
March 20th, 2020, 9:35 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Hyperinflation
Replies: 14
Views: 3340

Re: Hyperinflation

guys, you are mathematicians, think about it: read #MMT unless our countries force factories to close down, we will not have any major shortages. definitely i see high chance of demand going way DOWN, not up,  with people stuck at home, fired from work... btw, USD 1y inflation swap trades at minus 1...
by Randor
March 20th, 2020, 1:42 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: seemingly paradoxical relationship between risk reversal and digital price
Replies: 0
Views: 3597

seemingly paradoxical relationship between risk reversal and digital price

how do we resolve this seeming paradox? lets take GBPUSD now:  it has a negative risk reversal, ie putvols > call vols , because traders expect spot to fall, so they are buying puts, pushing their vols up. and if the risk reversal becomes MORE negative , then based on the above, you'd say theres eve...
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