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by ronnotel
May 8th, 2014, 2:55 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Multiple Regression with more than 16 variables
Replies: 16
Views: 9154

Multiple Regression with more than 16 variables

A very nice open source implementation is available for free from alglib. This would be useful if you wanted something built into a code framework. Lots of control, ability to tune, etc.
by ronnotel
May 7th, 2014, 7:37 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Gatheral's Default Risk model
Replies: 3
Views: 4941

Gatheral's Default Risk model

<t>KMV is an option, but to the best of my knowledge it doesn't explicitly use vol skew in it's formulation, correct? I've worked with equity vol skew for some time and I thought it might be interesting to whether there was any predictive information that could applied towards default risk. Also, th...
by ronnotel
May 7th, 2014, 3:54 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Gatheral's Default Risk model
Replies: 3
Views: 4941

Gatheral's Default Risk model

<t>In Gatheral's book "The Volatility Surface", he proposes a reduced form model in Chap 6 from which the "hazard risk" (annual probability of a "jump-to-ruin") can be inferred from the skew of OTM puts. On page 82, he provides a worked example using the 3-month skew curve to estimate a the hazard r...
by ronnotel
May 5th, 2014, 8:11 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Captil Structure Arbitage - Credit spread from Volatility Skews
Replies: 35
Views: 200614

Captil Structure Arbitage - Credit spread from Volatility Skews

<t>I'm coming to this thread after a few years. However I thought my experience might be interesting to anyone who finds this discussion after struggling with the Hull, Nelken, White paper. I burned a couple of days trying to resolve equations 8 & 9 and somehow back-out the L and sigmaA values f...
by ronnotel
May 5th, 2014, 8:09 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Hull Nelken White - Implied Volatility Skew and Credit
Replies: 4
Views: 139577

Hull Nelken White - Implied Volatility Skew and Credit

<t>I'm coming to this thread after a large break (9 years?) However I thought my experience might be interesting to anyone who finds this discussion after struggling with the Hull, Nelken, White paper. I burned a couple of days trying to resolve equations 8 & 9 and somehow back-out the L and sig...
by ronnotel
September 23rd, 2011, 1:20 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: PnL by greeks
Replies: 1
Views: 23510

PnL by greeks

<t>One method to evaluate option trading performance is to decompose trading PnL by "greeks" (delta, gamma, vega, theta) according to the formula:dC = (delta * dS) + (1/2 * gamma * dS * dS) + (vega * dsigma) - theta + epsilonwhere dC is the change in the option's value, dS is the change in the under...
by ronnotel
June 20th, 2011, 2:12 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Fitting a Skew Curve
Replies: 6
Views: 22661

Fitting a Skew Curve

<t>My objective in seeking a fit is not to determine a theoretical volatility (I use a kernel-based smoother for that) but rather to generate an estimate of skew (dsigma/dK), which for technical reasons my kernel-based smoother does not generate efficiently. Skew is needed to plug into the "swimming...
by ronnotel
June 16th, 2011, 1:15 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Fitting a Skew Curve
Replies: 6
Views: 22661

Fitting a Skew Curve

<t>Thanks, Bouncer, appreciate the feedback.I've been using the polynomialfit method from alglib and I'm getting fairly useful results. However, picking the right degree of polynomials turns out to be fairly important. Too few and you end up with a systematic positive bias at the trough of the skew ...
by ronnotel
June 10th, 2011, 7:54 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Fitting a Skew Curve
Replies: 6
Views: 22661

Fitting a Skew Curve

<r>FWIW, a little investigation revealed alglib.net (<URL url="http://www.alglib.net">www.alglib.net</URL>) that seems to provide a fairly usable set of polynomial fit algorithms (including a native port to C#, score!). Until a different tool is conclusively shown to be better this looks like a good...
by ronnotel
June 10th, 2011, 4:23 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Fitting a Skew Curve
Replies: 6
Views: 22661

Fitting a Skew Curve

<t>I'm evaluating mathematical, robust techniques for fitting a skew curve to a strip of equal maturity option implied volatilities. Ideally, the technique should be robust in the face of poorly quoted strikes (i.e. a worthless option that's being quoted wide). Anyone have any suggestion on where to...
by ronnotel
March 9th, 2011, 2:45 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Delta hedging RUT options
Replies: 2
Views: 25290

Delta hedging RUT options

<t>Turns out there's another nit that took me a while to puzzle out. RUT options track the RUT index (RTY Index GO on Bloomberg), IWM track the related RU20INTR index (RU20INTR Index GO on Bloomberg). The difference is that RUT is "Price" weighted, while RU20INTR is "Total Return" weighted. In other...
by ronnotel
March 1st, 2011, 4:40 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: How do I trade forward implied vol?
Replies: 15
Views: 31766

How do I trade forward implied vol?

<r>There's a much, much simpler way to trade forward implied vol - it's called a calendar spread. If you are long the Sep 100 Call, and short the Jun 100 call, you are essentially long the 100 strike over the Jun to Sep period - ie. the forward 3m implied vol. The volatility implied by the calendar ...
by ronnotel
March 1st, 2011, 4:36 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Delta hedging RUT options
Replies: 2
Views: 25290

Delta hedging RUT options

<t>We are now gearing up to add RUT index options to the book. Can anyone think of any reason why I can't treat the deliverable of these options as 1000 x IWM (1/10th RUT ETF) for delta hedging purposes? Obviously our clearing processes must handle these as cash-settled (market on open), European op...
by ronnotel
December 3rd, 2010, 6:39 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: delta sensitivity to strike
Replies: 2
Views: 22408

delta sensitivity to strike

Yes, that was my intuition as well. Thanks for the second opinion. My freshman-level calculus is a bit rusty.
by ronnotel
December 3rd, 2010, 4:55 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: delta sensitivity to strike
Replies: 2
Views: 22408

delta sensitivity to strike

<t>Using B/S as a starting point, I derived the sensitivity of delta to the strike price in order to resolve some pricing model issues with far OTM and ITM strikes. The formula I came up with is very similar to that for Gamma, except replacing the S with (-K):ddC/dSdK = -exp(-qt)*phi(d1)/K*sigma*roo...
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