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by krufoux
January 19th, 2010, 12:56 am
Forum: Careers Forum
Topic: Knight
Replies: 0
Views: 31064

Knight

Any info on Knight Electronic Trading Group? Any idea how it compares with other HF groups on the street?
by krufoux
January 11th, 2010, 2:10 am
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: AR / MA / GARCH prediction
Replies: 3
Views: 33836

AR / MA / GARCH prediction

<t>Thanks for the answer, I will check out the book you recommended. Also, when I meant GARCH has an MA component, I was referring to the fact that GARCH is equivalent to ARMA for the squares. In the meantime, to simplify my question, let's say we have MA(1) model: X(t) = W(t) + q * W(t-1). We find ...
by krufoux
January 11th, 2010, 1:24 am
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: AR / MA / GARCH prediction
Replies: 3
Views: 33836

AR / MA / GARCH prediction

<t>Hi, Question about prediction from (non)linear models. How does the prediction work for MA models? Also, is it possible to predict future values just by knowing parameters and recent past, or does one need the whole history?More precisely, for AR(p) models, one finds coefficients with Yule-Walker...
by krufoux
November 26th, 2009, 2:57 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Significance Test
Replies: 4
Views: 32796

Significance Test

<t>Traden4Alpha,Thanks for the answer. I agree with your points. For 2., assume the strategy is better than buy and hold. For 1., assume we perform an out-of-sample once we set the time.The goal is not to replace out-of-sample validation, but rather to determine which of the times T to run out-of-sa...
by krufoux
November 25th, 2009, 8:56 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Significance Test
Replies: 4
Views: 32796

Significance Test

<t>Let's say we have a simple trading rule, its specifics don't matter (e.g. buy on day 1 if previous overnight gapped lower and viceversa). The plan is to enter the trade at time T of day 1 and exit the trade at time T on day 2. After determining optimal time T (let's say by performing the historic...
by krufoux
October 28th, 2009, 9:30 pm
Forum: Brainteaser Forum
Topic: Probability discrete random walk does not hit 0.
Replies: 17
Views: 38701

Probability discrete random walk does not hit 0.

Thanks a lot! The answer was very helpful, I really appreciate your time. It also made me read about some of the concepts you mentioned (reflection principle etc.) of which I was not aware.Thanks again!
by krufoux
October 28th, 2009, 7:13 pm
Forum: Brainteaser Forum
Topic: Probability discrete random walk does not hit 0.
Replies: 17
Views: 38701

Probability discrete random walk does not hit 0.

Thank for the quick reply!Could you direct me to an on-line source where I could find out more about it? The solution you mentioned is not immediately clear to me.Thanks.
by krufoux
October 28th, 2009, 6:28 pm
Forum: Brainteaser Forum
Topic: Probability discrete random walk does not hit 0.
Replies: 17
Views: 38701

Probability discrete random walk does not hit 0.

Does anyone have an idea how to solve this?Given a discrete 1D random walk starting at 0, with equal probability of going +1 or -1, what is the probability P(n) that after n steps the random walk stayed above 0, never hitting 0?Thanks!
by krufoux
March 26th, 2008, 8:15 pm
Forum: Trading Forum
Topic: Why trade exotics on the buy-side
Replies: 7
Views: 60422

Why trade exotics on the buy-side

<t>What is the reason hedge funds or proprietary trading firms trade exotic options? Given that they are complex OTC products, don't the banks on the other side of the trade want to make significant profits as well? So why share the profits?If profit is not the only reason, does one use exotics for ...
by krufoux
March 26th, 2008, 8:07 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Why trade exotics on the buy-side?
Replies: 1
Views: 57168

Why trade exotics on the buy-side?

sorry, this was meant in the trading forum
by krufoux
March 26th, 2008, 8:03 pm
Forum: Technical Forum
Topic: Why trade exotics on the buy-side?
Replies: 1
Views: 57168

Why trade exotics on the buy-side?

<t>What is the reason hedge funds or proprietary trading firms trade exotic options? Given that they are complex OTC products, don't the banks on the other side of the trade want to make significant profits as well? So why share the profits?If profit is not the only reason, does one use exotics for ...
by krufoux
March 9th, 2008, 8:16 pm
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: stochastic volatility model for equity derivative
Replies: 2
Views: 58100

stochastic volatility model for equity derivative

<t>There are several popular stochastic volatility models for equity options, and each is important with regard to the assumptions they make.Heston takes vol to follow a CIR process, while Stein&Stein or Scott take vol to follow an Ohrstein Uhlenbeck process, to account for vol's mean-reversion ...
by krufoux
March 9th, 2008, 5:00 pm
Forum: Careers Forum
Topic: Merrill Lynch Quant Trading Desks
Replies: 17
Views: 62682

Merrill Lynch Quant Trading Desks

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: YuraI am amazed at how newbies here say "I am interested in equities, but I would consider FI too" like FI is some sort of a plague. What do you know about FI to say that you like equities better?!! Thanks for the answer. I admit my knowledge of both is not that deep, n...
by krufoux
March 8th, 2008, 7:50 pm
Forum: Careers Forum
Topic: Merrill Lynch Quant Trading Desks
Replies: 17
Views: 62682

Merrill Lynch Quant Trading Desks

<t>Hi,I am a junior studying math at a top school and will be interning at Merrill Lynch for a rotational program this summer. Given that I can choose (depending on availability) three trading desks I could work on (3 weeks on each), I would like to explore several areas of trading. I am mostly inte...