Re; hedging – some big commodity firms intentionally don’t hedge – investors get an exposure to the commodity cycle. Plus these firms also have natural hedges. Re; operational optionality – a Nat Gas power plant is an example. Relatively little start-up costs, and can switch on/off when power prices...
From memory one issue with the mine RO example is that commodity (forward) prices have mean reversion, which affects the forward value as a function of the vol term structure. There's an annual RO conference - this year in Boston: http://www.realoptions.org/
I guess we’re talking spot electricity. The bid-ask spread itself is mean reverting/stationary, so this could be modeled as an AR process. and would be dynamic. Intra-day prices have seasonality, so a a fast Fourier regression can capture the cycles. Spot electricity is local – a function of weather...
Why wouldn't that work? What are the practical difficulties? Unions and political consequences. The traditional reason is to rebalance imports and exports by making the country's products relatively less expensive to outsiders and making imports relatively more expensive to citizens which favors gr...
In general, wouldn't innovation be deflationary? Innovation increases the variety goods, diluting the amount money available per item. Moreover, innovation also increases consumer surplus so that even if consumers are willing to pay higher prices for the new products, it's not inflation in that t...
Fracking, digital media, communications….. Yes Agreed, but we also create things that we didnt know we needed and spend money on them. This adds to the household expenses but I'm not sure if they would be inflationary over all. Thats what I'm thinking about !! They are deflationary, not inflationar...
This is very interesting. Might take me some time to get my head around the idea. Fracking, digital media, communications….. Yes Agreed, but we also create things that we didnt know we needed and spend money on them. This adds to the household expenses but I'm not sure if they would be inflationar...
I'm closer to the great Austrian economists than to the Chicago school, but Milton Friedman has said that "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." There was a lot of angst with QEx and hyperinflation. Arguably one reason this didn't happen was the the low velocity of mo...
<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulQuoteOriginally posted by: PaulQuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn The emotions that the leave politicians played on were divisive, negative to a bygone era. It is now 2016, not 1816.I know, I know. It was awful...loss of trade, unemployment, WW3, collapse ...