SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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by exCBOE
May 6th, 2012, 2:27 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: MF Global
Replies: 15
Views: 21405

MF Global

<t>Of course the money was stolen or misappropriated or embezzled or whatever euphemism you choose. The underlying question, rarely addressed, is why anyone at MF, including the crook at the top even had the power to misuse customer funds. To understand this, just look at the business model behind a...
by exCBOE
November 19th, 2011, 2:14 am
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: the pursuit of certainty is vain and risky
Replies: 5
Views: 19255

the pursuit of certainty is vain and risky

Finance ain't physics. To properly quantify risk one must assume something is known about the future. Thus all risk management is relative to some standard assumptions.
by exCBOE
November 14th, 2011, 1:38 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?
Replies: 206
Views: 26001

Actual consequences of a U.S. / Greece bankruptcies?

<t>I have been following this thread with some interest and even amusement. Not that I don't feel sympathy for the Greek people. For the most part they are helpless as individuals to control their own economic destiny. There is no shortage of political solutions offered. Punish the Greeks! No, punis...
by exCBOE
November 10th, 2011, 11:15 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Housing Death Spiral
Replies: 12
Views: 17892

Housing Death Spiral

<t>No matter how you look at it, there are no reliable models. Predicting anything about the future is hard enough. How would you test a hypothetical model of mortgage defaults? What past data could be used? Even if you could develop such a model, its inputs would surely involve unknown future numbe...
by exCBOE
November 8th, 2011, 12:54 am
Forum: General Forum
Topic: Housing Death Spiral
Replies: 12
Views: 17892

Housing Death Spiral

<t>You are not missing anything but they are. When you first learn physics, you probably ignore friction, but no decent teacher fails to mention that. There are many feedback loops and boundary conditions impacting a decision to default. You mention credit score. That has an immediate impact on one'...
by exCBOE
November 3rd, 2011, 12:40 am
Forum: Student Forum
Topic: Ph.D topic help
Replies: 12
Views: 20473

Ph.D topic help

The only really worthwhile research has to do with predicting something about the future, even a probability distribution which fits future observations. Sounds hard doesn't it? But any little advance can really make money; everything else is luck.
by exCBOE
October 25th, 2011, 10:59 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Real US Debt is between $60 and $200 Trillion
Replies: 13
Views: 23890

Real US Debt is between $60 and $200 Trillion

Would anyone care to venture an opinion of the future value of the assets of the US? It's called a balance sheet.
by exCBOE
September 19th, 2011, 7:57 pm
Forum: General Forum
Topic: What went wrong at UBS?
Replies: 16
Views: 23730

What went wrong at UBS?

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: royalflushHi,there is one thing that I realy do not understand. 1. Whenever I do a trade on a listed market like XETRA or EUREX the transaction goes STP into my riskmanagement system. So there is no place for fraud as all processes are automated.2. Whenever I do a trade...
by exCBOE
September 19th, 2011, 12:55 am
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Double dip or not ?
Replies: 107
Views: 26220

Double dip or not ?

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisQuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEWhat your fellow travelers call win/win, is actually only a win for the parasite. Maybe Germany should help bail out Greece; they still owe them from the war. The win for Germany is the satisfaction of paying a moral debt and of be...
by exCBOE
September 18th, 2011, 3:37 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: to me, goldbach's conjecture is proven
Replies: 215
Views: 24617

to me, goldbach's conjecture is proven

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: outrunAlso, the minimum set has nothing to do with Goldbach. I don't see the link.The challenge is to find products which equal E-p for every p using some subset of p. If you can do it with a subset, then p is not the minimum set. If p i...
by exCBOE
September 17th, 2011, 9:22 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: to me, goldbach's conjecture is proven
Replies: 215
Views: 24617

to me, goldbach's conjecture is proven

Not sure how this got started but I think Goldbach aas been verified up to around a quintillion. Are there interesting wavelengths that long?
by exCBOE
September 17th, 2011, 5:50 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Double dip or not ?
Replies: 107
Views: 26220

Double dip or not ?

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEQuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearInflation only benefits citizens that are debtors and corrupt and inapt Politicians that can't plan anything right for the sake of their citizens. They jus...
by exCBOE
September 16th, 2011, 12:49 am
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Double dip or not ?
Replies: 107
Views: 26220

Double dip or not ?

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEQuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearInflation only benefits citizens that are debtors and corrupt and inapt Politicians that can't plan anything right for the sake of their citizens. They just want power and influence to make ...
by exCBOE
September 15th, 2011, 10:31 pm
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Double dip or not ?
Replies: 107
Views: 26220

Double dip or not ?

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: BullBearQuoteOriginally posted by: frenchXYes but never the German (as a massive exporting economy) will accept to devaluate the Euro that's the problem. The BCE is the Bundesbank. They are in command and they want to maximize their utility in detriment of their partner...
by exCBOE
September 14th, 2011, 6:51 am
Forum: Economics Forum
Topic: Double dip or not ?
Replies: 107
Views: 26220

Double dip or not ?

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: FermionQuoteOriginally posted by: exCBOEIt is pointless to argue with someone who simply says what he pleases with nothing to back it up....perhaps I'm projecting again, right?Projecting yes. Pointless sometimes. At other times I even enjoy it -- especially with the mos...
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