<t>@outrun and Cuchulainnthanks for the suggestion!I think I need to emphasize again that with respect to the ash model I have already done a lot of research and decided for an advection diffusion reaction equation equation, and already collected a couple of numerical methods to solve it; however, a...

<t>Outrun,thanks for your demotivational post! :-)I did not know about the hairy ball theorem, but I guess it does not apply if I am just modeling a certain region...If you have any suggestions on literature about the infeasibility of wind modeling, you would help me out a lot. (I assume there is no...

outrun, thanks for the suggestion. I think there are huge amount of data available (NCEP), right?If you are working on it, could you suggest a model that allows for the effects I described below?(I only use windspeed as the advection parameter in an advection diffusion equation)

@Cuchulainn: As I described below, I want to keep things simple as a first shot and assume u1(x ,y,t) = u1(t) for all x,y (same for u2). Even with that assumption I find it difficult to incorporate the characteristics I want.

<t>yes, conservative.wind speed = sqrt(u1^2 + u2^2) over a year is Weibull distributed. (which does not mean that the (acculumated) time series process does have a weibull distribution, according to my understanding, this is Alan's "infinitely divisibility" and even more)In order to get u1 and u2, I...

Yes, but for the PDE it is indeed the best choice (in my non-expert opinion). Thanks.

<t>This would be something like the method of characteristics for the advection part, if I am not mistaken?I do not see the connection to the model for the parameter of the advection then. Could you please elaborate? Quote:"Like lowlands (e.g. Heimay) versus uplands(Vatnajukell) wind profiles?"I wou...

Thanks, frenchX, but this paper just tries to fit one month of wind data to AR, ARMA, ARFIMA models etc.I am less interested in the specific fit and rather aim at picturing some general characteristics.

yes, that's almost it.dC/dt = -u1 dC/dx -u2 dC/dy + turbulent diffusion factors in (x and y)I want to find a model for u1 and u2

Yes! The scope of my question is only how to model wind though. I think I am all set with the Advection-Diffusion setup. (wind will serve as the advection coefficient, more or less)

<r>I apologize for not being specific from the start:Background:I need a stochastic model for wind (speed and direction) as input for an advection diffusion model to model the development of an ash could after an volcanic outbreak.As the model is supposed to be as generic as possible, but I need onl...

<t>Cuchulainn,thanks for the suggestion!The wind simulation is supposed to be only a by product and serves as an input for a stochastic simulation.Therefore,a) I want to keep things simple b) I need to simulate wind characteristics (as opposed to a forecast)Nevertheless, I am grateful for your input...

<t>Hi everybody,I want to try something in the field of wind modeling, but I do not know how to get what I need:I would like to employ the Vasicek model for wind strength development over time, such that the result (r_t in Vasicek's terms) is Weibull distributed (for each t). I have no clue how to c...

Hi wilsonnl,I think we should consider a utility function for reflection of risk attitude. If I am not mistaken, this setup is called St. Petersburg paradoxon. If you play it forever, your expected gain is infinite.

I think this might help you.