<t>Hi guys, I am trying to understand the differences between Bayesian MCMC methods and maximum likelihood techniques. I am looking at applying this to a customized binary response model and have heard that while MCMC methods take longer to find the parameters, they are more robust then MLE techniqu...

why not just do a multivariate regression?

I wouldn't be surprised if it were an eastern European country or a Balkan country with banks that are heavily exposed to Greece/Portugal. I am eyeing Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary in particular.

<t>I was recently at a conference where a seasoned HFT trader told us that the simple arbitrage opportunities (i.e. price differentials ) have become unprofitable globally. he noted however that ample opportunities remain for creative algo's, especially in less liquid markets (i.e. derivatives, bond...

<t>Arnold Kling has talked a lot about this in terms of information which I find more relevant in today's economy. Bubbles are characterized by a slow and steady expansion of the information set (jobs pouring into finance and housing) for all the agents involved. when they pop (i.e. recession) there...

<t>I am not sure what you are referring to (for us it was calculus AND differentials) but getting an offer (with money) for LSE is about as good as it can get for the academic track. as far as math is concerned, real analysis is not nearly as useful(or as rare) a skill as econometrics and computer p...

thanks for the tip, those charts are real nice eye-candy. now if I could only get my clients to drop their over-complicated flowcharts...

if you have a local university, I strongly suggest that you "borrow" their Bloomberg or Datastream terminal for 2 mins.

<t>You're in luck in the sense that Industrial organization ( i.e. market interactions by firms) is one of the few areas where economics is almost as accurate and applicable as physics. companies like Google and Microsoft really do use economists to make their pricing decisions. also you'll find far...

<r>Usually the fed engages in its operations via changing the amount of reserves that it holds with the big banks. in essence the fed has historically used banks as intermediaries in engaging in monetary policy. however due to the 08 crash banks have stopped lending to repair thier balance sheets in...

<t>A friend of mine has decided to short Chinese real estate. he thinks that the BOC will have to drop the peg eventually raising the discount rate and causing the market to crash. he has decided to buy puts on E-House (ADR) but is not sure of the best maturity date. On the one hand, he could buy a ...

<t>To give a more accurate answer it would be hepeful to know a bit more about this economy.i.e. 1) is the plant for export or domestic consumption?2) 10% of GDP is a tremendous amount of output. for the US this is equivalent to 2.5 times ALL military spending3) how trade oriented is this economy4) ...

Just make sure if you get it to personally validate its quality. I have a friend that got diluted gold (95%) because of a false positive on a home testing kit.

<r>that's very interesting outrun. I didn't think of the micro-structure that way. I wonder if you can exploit the differences in various pairs due to the same shock or find some other way to carry over liquidity. These are some charts that show what you observe in the tick data:<URL url="http://fxt...

<t>lets say that I know that a security's bid/ask spread widens at certain times of the day. how could I profit by being a liquidity provider during this time? I find that certain currencies (I am looking at NZD/AUD right now) have incredibly deterministic spikes in the spread at the 1 minute level....