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by bearish
Today, 7:11 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

So Trump went on record today that he doesn’t care if MbS ordered the death and dismemberment of Khashoggi, as long as the Saudis buy US weapons and provide him with suitable emoluments.
by bearish
Today, 5:29 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Implied volatilities under stochastic interest rates
Replies: 1
Views: 24

Re: Implied volatilities under stochastic interest rates

I would guess that they use the implied vol from a standard Black-Scholes model with the constant interest rate set equal to the initial yield curve’s spot rate to the option maturity date. And from a quick glance, that initial curve seems to be flat at 2%.
by bearish
Today, 4:47 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)
Replies: 1408
Views: 259038

Re: Impending Ice Age - What We Can Do (Mitigation)

Of course, the experts cited in the article blamed it on the unusually warm autumn in Siberia.
by bearish
Today, 11:24 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Difference between pricing a closed form and finite difference method whilst pricing liquid CDS portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 93

Re: Difference between pricing a closed form and finite difference method whilst pricing liquid CDS portfolio

I have a guess as to what is going on here. When you say "finite difference method", do you mean that you change one or more input parameters by a finite amount and then revalue the position (or book) to get the P&L in a scenario? As opposed to multiplying a (possibly approximate) partial derivative...
by bearish
Today, 11:02 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: America - Home of Bugs Bunny
Replies: 2056
Views: 98588

Re: America - Home of Bugs Bunny

Sec. Ryan Zinke Backs Trump: Years of Mismanagement Led to California Fires I’m not sure whether it is more surprising that you or Breitbart thinks it is a story that some anti-environmentalist pissant working for Trump declares publically that Trump is right. That’s his job and calling from the lo...
by bearish
Yesterday, 11:12 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Loggers support Trump's claim that wildfires caused by 'poor forest management' “President Trump blamed poor forest management for wildfires in California and throughout the West, and there is truth to statements he has made,” said Daniel Dructor, executive vice president of the American Loggers Co...
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 10:44 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Grammar Time!
Replies: 1601
Views: 177780

Re: Grammar Time!

"COMPAS is based on a questionnaire that asks defendants 137 questions based on modern theories of what causes people to commit crimes."

I'm not that good with commas in English either, and the answer to a quandary is usually to reformulate.
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 9:09 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

With those charges hanging over him, Gulen fled Turkey for the US during the Clinton administration. The charges went away in the early 2000s when Gulen's then friend Erdogan became prime minister.  Gulen appears to have originally come to the US for medical treatment, or at least that was the reas...
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 8:55 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: UK and the EU: In or out?
Replies: 1475
Views: 43023

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

One can spin up any number of hypothetical scenarios along the lines of a collapsing EU. It seems pretty safe to assume that treaties will remain binding even if Greece drops out, and perhaps even Italy. But what is owed to an EU consisting of just Poland and Hungary? In the general spirit of Wonko ...
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 3:18 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

That is the sort of statement that the EPA under Trump will make. To inject a little more "science": "The report found that the amount of greenhouse emissions by the United States fell in the most recent year. But there’s a problem: Due to the lag in data collection, that decline occurred during Pre...
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 1:01 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Universe Tea - Blog 2018
Replies: 397
Views: 9175

Re: Universe Tea - Blog 2018

Here is the green silk and velvet scarf.  I will certainly wear it over the holidays and may shop for a new dress to go with it. Black or maybe a rich gray velvet or silk if I can find one. Have they put out the holiday lights at Oxford Circus yet?  Whenever I have been there this time of year, it ...
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 12:55 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Been tried before Umaru Dikko We've all had emails from former Nigerian government officials who've stolen billions of dollars and need help getting the money out of Nigeria. Umaru Dikko was Transport Minister when his brother-in-law Shehu Shagari (shown below) was president https://upload.wikimedi...
by bearish
November 18th, 2018, 12:53 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

You know, none of that climate stuff... If you're a warmer, you probably love President Trump because of his efforts to reduce C02 https://twitter.com/RealJack/status/1018650780344242179 The US led the world in cutting C02 emissions in President Trump's first year. Large as that cut was, unfortunat...
by bearish
November 17th, 2018, 11:59 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 2220
Views: 47392

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

In the "you can't make this stuff up" category, Trump insists that the California fires are due to a lack of proper raking of the forest floor. You know, none of that climate stuff...
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