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by bearish
Yesterday, 12:37 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Chatroom
Replies: 528
Views: 37719

Re: Chatroom

Of course, now we know that the proper discount rate to apply is the return on the (dynamic) portfolio of the stock and the bond that a) maximizes the expected growth rate and, equivalently, b) makes the discounted stock and bond prices martingales under P.
by bearish
Yesterday, 11:58 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Chatroom
Replies: 528
Views: 37719

Re: Chatroom

Options models gurus. Sinclair mentions the Boness option pricing model in his Directional Option Trading book. It is physical world model as opposed to risk-neutral.  I can't say this rings the bell and there is not a lot about it online. Is this even a thing? All your comments welcome. Thank you ...
by bearish
Yesterday, 2:03 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 4528
Views: 348635

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

We now have the House minority leader threatening the Attorney General. Because, well, that’s what Republicans do. Fuck institutions if they don’t adore our Dear Leader. Just go die in a hole!
by bearish
August 12th, 2022, 9:51 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 4528
Views: 348635

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Now, you should be aware that Paul had a physical allergy to The Guardian, so that won’t register. But, in a vaguely similar vein, Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) started mocking Trump as far back as in 1990 (as the god of capitalism).
by bearish
August 12th, 2022, 4:16 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 4528
Views: 348635

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

No, the country is already split apart. I think there is a small chance that it may ultimately mend itself, although probably not in my lifetime, but that chance becomes negligible if Trump gets on the 2024 ballot. The GOP machinery may give the presidency to him anyway, but not if he has been hange...
by bearish
August 12th, 2022, 2:46 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 4528
Views: 348635

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

The bleading head Trump supporters (like most GOP senators) bleated their demands for AG Merrick Garland to make public the search warrant for the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago visit. And, today, he responded, and Trump is even more yellow than usual (not just the hair). Of course, he (Trump, that is) could have...
by bearish
August 11th, 2022, 10:16 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Inflation question
Replies: 10
Views: 169970

Re: Inflation question

Well, a little research suggests that she considers herself to be “of colour”, but probably not a member of the L or T crowd on account of being married to a (white) man and the mother of his daughter.
by bearish
August 10th, 2022, 11:26 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Inflation question
Replies: 10
Views: 169970

Re: Inflation question

I haven’t actually watched Cramer for twenty years, but I don’t think I’ve been missing much. His ratio of loud “entertainment” to content is close to the singularity.
by bearish
August 10th, 2022, 1:47 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."
Replies: 71
Views: 6881

Re: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."

I’m sorry. I don’t. I’m very mild mannered. At the same time, I do think the standard paradigm is a pretty reasonable starting point, into which one can try to insert various kinds of real world complications. Like transaction costs and other problems that prevent even simple claims from being perfe...
by bearish
August 10th, 2022, 12:55 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."
Replies: 71
Views: 6881

Re: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."

So you want to postulate a model with totally unreasonable parameters, making no sense whatsoever, and then use the existence of said model to argue that the modeling framework is wrong? Isn’t that a bit like saying that a car, driving at a speed of 99% of the speed of light, is very implausible, an...
by bearish
August 9th, 2022, 11:05 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."
Replies: 71
Views: 6881

Re: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."

Sorry, I interrupted myself. By the time our continental colleagues got to NFLVR, I lost a bit of enthusiasm, but I like this little note by Freddy and Wally: https://www.ams.org/notices/200405/what-is.pdf Aside from the fact that they manage to repeatedly say Cox-Ingersoll-Ross when they meant Cox-...
by bearish
August 9th, 2022, 10:46 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."
Replies: 71
Views: 6881

Re: "Option Pricing, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage: An Argument for Volatility-Modified Risk-Neutral Prices."

Please, can we call it “a replicating portfolio”? As I was typing that, the word tallywhacker came to mind, for reasons that should be obvious.
by bearish
August 9th, 2022, 12:08 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Russia земля борца самбо
Replies: 410
Views: 32579

Re: Russia земля борца самбо

Maybe we should focus less on him and more on the ordinary Russians who are committing war crimes and other atrocities by the tens of thousands.
by bearish
August 9th, 2022, 12:03 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Trump -- the last 100 days
Replies: 4528
Views: 348635

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Yes, but, as far as we can tell, not specificly motivated by the Jan 6 sedition case. That being said, evidence found under a lawful warrant motivated by an investigation into crime A can happily be used in the prosecution of case B, C, D, etc. So this could still lead to his hanging. Wishful thinki...