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by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 8:59 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Multi-state probabilities/models (MSM) and regression applied to venture capital and innovation
Replies: 29
Views: 714

Re: Multi-state probabilities/models (MSM) and regression applied to venture capital and innovation

Would you say that MSM are between "less technical methods" and "real options"? Although I've written about real options I've never used them in practice. But when it comes to any new business I tend to start off by saying it has a 5% chance of success, and then this could happen or this or this. So...
by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 8:12 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

Am assuming they lose one.
by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 7:18 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

The figure after the decimal point was for you, Cuch. Hope you like them!
by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 7:17 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

Explain. If C+DUP>325, how affected by SF? Or will they blow up some people?
by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 3:41 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

63.8% chance of Conservative majority with expected seats 336.

73.1% chance with help of DUP.
by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 3:22 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

I would agree about the anti semitism. Other things don’t worry the trendy leftists as much as racism does. Supporting terrorists = hating your own country, v trendy. Marxism, doesn’t bother them likewise since the practicalities of economics won’t affect them. I would expect luvvies and the posh to...
by Paul
November 15th, 2019, 5:37 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

Here's a simple plot of seats versus percentage for elections since 1970 for three main parties. I have taken some liberty with the definition of Liberal Democrat. (But they started it.) It shows very clearly the well-known advantage that Labour have thanks to shifting demographics. Years ago the Bo...
by Paul
November 14th, 2019, 8:36 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

Labour ex MPs are telling people to vote Conservative. Conservative ex MPs are saying they are voting Lib Dem. And now a Lib Dem saying to vote Labour.

Round and round she goes. Where she stops nobody knows!
by Paul
November 14th, 2019, 5:06 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: 100 millions time faster than ODE methods
Replies: 13
Views: 342

Re: 100 millions time faster than ODE methods

It's like learning to play the violin. Ten thousand hours of practice, but then you can rattle through all four seasons in minutes. But 'ukulele is still better. That analogy may be better than you think. When your ten thousand hours does not help me -- and I still have to practice/train the damn t...
by Paul
November 14th, 2019, 4:42 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: 100 millions time faster than ODE methods
Replies: 13
Views: 342

Re: 100 millions time faster than ODE methods

It's like learning to play the violin. Ten thousand hours of practice, but then you can rattle through all four seasons in minutes.

But 'ukulele is still better.
by Paul
November 14th, 2019, 3:43 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Need Help: Vegetarian Recipes
Replies: 130
Views: 22262

Re: Need Help: Vegetarian Recipes

Swedes and haggis. January 25th. Not exactly vegetarian though.
by Paul
November 14th, 2019, 3:20 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

Re: General Election 2019

Up, down and sideways. There’s an enormous margin of error, so it was the sensible thing to do!
by Paul
November 14th, 2019, 2:31 am
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: General Election 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 3042

General Election 2019

Current forecast: 75% chance of a Conservative majority. 
by Paul
November 13th, 2019, 5:36 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Are you ready for Brexit?
Replies: 624
Views: 24830

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Who is this Helga? She sounds like a game girl.
by Paul
November 12th, 2019, 9:37 pm
Forum: Politics Forum
Topic: Are you ready for Brexit?
Replies: 624
Views: 24830

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Oslo is known as "the capital of one night stands". For the record, that's not why I regularly go there :-) (Work.)
That's because one night lasts for about six months.
GZIP: On