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by katastrofa
March 27th, 2020, 12:48 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

Doesn't the household effect amount to introducing a multiplicating constant equal to a typical hh size in the first equation?
by katastrofa
March 27th, 2020, 2:08 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: All about Cats
Replies: 948
Views: 87722

Re: All about Cats

People are disaster, not feral cats.

ISayMoo's cat hiding from coronavirus :
by katastrofa
March 27th, 2020, 1:30 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

BTW, in one of my projects last year I used the Bayesian optimisation to find parameters of a model of a computer virus in the computer network. The model was a realistic microsimulation of the country internet infrastructure, including behavioural data on different users' behaviours, and the virus ...
by katastrofa
March 27th, 2020, 12:59 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

"You can make f a function of H easily, no?" Good point.     S = x[0]     E = x[1]     I = x[2]     H = x[3]     R = x[4]          a1 = 0.1/14*100 #probability of contracting from infected (10% risk of infection if in contact for 14 days, 100 contacts within this period)     a2 = a1/10 #probability ...
by katastrofa
March 27th, 2020, 12:53 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

I tried to use realistic parameters based on available data and medical reports that I read daily, but I didn't research it thoroughly - they might have changed. That's why I plan to put the model in an optimiser to fit the params to data trends. First I want to remove some unrealistic assumptions o...
by katastrofa
March 27th, 2020, 12:32 am
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

Quick implementation of SEIHR in Python (no differentiation between households and other yet): import numpy as np from scipy.integrate import odeint import matplotlib.pyplot as plt N = 6.6e6 #population size N_INFECTED = N/1e3 def covid19(x,t):          a1 = 0.1/14*100 #probability of contracting fr...
by katastrofa
March 26th, 2020, 4:09 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Good things that come out of this pandemic...
Replies: 49
Views: 1142

Re: Good things that come out of this pandemic...

Ditto. We are jogging every day along the river with ISayMoo. The sight of relaxed birds on the water and playing animals makes us optimistic about the end of civilisation.
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 10:57 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

Why not run it through Mathematica? Alan? :-)
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 10:03 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

"Any ideas about how to estimate numbers?"

You could fit the model to the trends.
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 10:00 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Stupid question of the day
Replies: 2195
Views: 145290

Re: Stupid question of the day

I'm seeing more attacks on wilmott.com from China!
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 8:51 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Stupid question of the day
Replies: 2195
Views: 145290

Re: Stupid question of the day

Do you think the Chinese will declare a war on us in a couple of weeks or will they decide that we're already done for?
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 8:49 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Is the cure worse than the disease?
Replies: 35
Views: 1137

Re: Is the cure worse than the disease?

I recommend .Kung Lao fatalities in old Mortal Kombat. They could add a new character to commemorate the pandemics - Corona.
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 8:45 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

kat, I think what is interesting about the simple model is how it shows that lockdown has to be early , before households have an infected member.  Any ideas about how to estimate numbers? IC vs Oxford. That would never catch on. That's why they should have done proper testing up front. No such a t...
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 6:37 pm
Forum: Numerical Methods Forum
Topic: Models for Covid-19
Replies: 221
Views: 5399

Re: Models for Covid-19

This is the full lockdown+hospital model. Independent variable: [$]t[$] is time. Dependent variables: [$]S_i(t)[$] =  susceptible [$]I_i(t)[$] = infected [$]R_i(t)[$] = recovered (alive) [$]H_i(t)[$] = in hospital [$]i[$] is a household index. This means that each household has its own four quantit...
by katastrofa
March 25th, 2020, 4:17 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: The Black Cube - Art Gallery
Replies: 523
Views: 119283

Re: The Black Cube - Art Gallery

ImageEdvard Munch, Self-Portrait after the Spanish flu
GZIP: On