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by numbersix
January 29th, 2011, 5:38 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>I was under the impression that actuaries didn't deal with the future, but only with statistical mortality tables, in another words, with the past. Before the poor guys understand implied volatility and the problem of recalibration, I wonder what probability (of a single event) even means to them...
by numbersix
January 29th, 2011, 9:29 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Here is a link for every one here to appreciate the profundity of an actuary's reading of the philosophy of contingent claims. If the actuaries start admitting to the shock that the price (of a contingent claim) should come first to probability and statistics, then maybe my voice is starting to b...
by numbersix
December 19th, 2010, 9:26 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Alexw,No need to apologize. I could have summarized my whole metaphysical elaboration in a single, down-to-earth observation. Although they may lose money on the particular day that the pure contingent event hits the market (depending on their position), real market-makers make money afterwards j...
by numbersix
December 17th, 2010, 2:54 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: alexwNumbersix,If recalibration ad-lib is the name of the game, then is it a fair statement to say that your book is more about giving a firm theoretical foundation for this practice (which may be considered as heresy by other academics) rather than providing new action...
by numbersix
December 12th, 2010, 4:42 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Alexw,My book is filled with recommendations as to what "one should do instead". The first rule of Pricing Club is calibration. The second rule of Pricing Club is recalibration. And the third rule of Pricing Club is recalibration. The name of the game is the regime-switching model.Incidentally, t...
by numbersix
December 12th, 2010, 4:16 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

And by the way, Traden4Alpha is no commentator because he hasn't read my book either. I would just call him another original thinker.
by numbersix
December 12th, 2010, 4:12 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Thank you both. There is also the hint that contingent claims are said to be written and that objectivist language is basically statist, just like probability. Hence the extension both of the logic of discourse, through the medium of contingent claims or the market, and of finance, through the ab...
by numbersix
November 27th, 2010, 10:08 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>RHCP,Thank you for your continued interest. My few esoteric bullet points make sense, I can assure you -- I only arranged them this way as a further variation on how to best condense my line of thinking -- so if I may now elaborate:All I meant is that the pricing tool we have developed at ITO 33,...
by numbersix
November 26th, 2010, 8:01 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>1. My pricing tool does not work in ITO 33 but in the market.2. My whole book is only the explanation of how my pricing tool, the regime-switching model, works in the market, and how any pricing tool worthy of that name should work. This is its revolutionary side.3. Therefore my book cannot chang...
by numbersix
November 23rd, 2010, 9:39 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Traden4Alpha,Thank you for this patient, thorough, and -- as always -- very instructive response. In this game of action and reaction and push and pull, it might be a good idea to reconsolidate the argument and pull it together from time to time, instead of ramifying it forever. So I will not ind...
by numbersix
November 11th, 2010, 3:01 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>I knew it, dear T4A, one day you and I will have to publish all this in the form of a Platonic dialogue of some sort!Probably better not to burden your post with quoting each section of mine; sections numbers will do, don't you think? The logic of succession still works, no?Or should I stop calli...
by numbersix
November 10th, 2010, 10:32 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4Alpha... if market participants use a morbid tree-based logic instead of more-correct contingency-based logic (whatever that might be).And what might be the contingency-based logic?1. The "morbid view of the tree" is just the general schema of prediction: reducin...
by numbersix
October 14th, 2010, 1:33 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Traden4Alpha,Just to continue replying to your previous post, I think you're still not getting the particular and quite sharp (this also means, perhaps, quite narrow) angle that I take on the market. When I say I don't care about the big picture and that it is a non-starter for me to wonder wheth...