Isn't 'Bayesian' a synonym of 'subjective'?

Is there a field of applied statistics where things could go as wrong as they did in mathematical finance?  Of course not, and we know the exact reason: electrons are identical, stones are almost identical, bacteria are similar, and even hamsters are not that different. Even more - humans are simil...

I forgot trading equity derivatives. But it was long time ago and very boring as far as I remember.

I don't think you can sensibly think about (or invest in!) the market without having some idea of what the equity risk premium and volatility have been historically and that requires measuring them. Basic notions like autocorrelation were important in understanding that securities markets are, in s...

So, your objections to this are?  Still the same:  Statistics does not work in finance because there are no repeatable experiments, the market mechanism changes over time as some players make money and others lose. There is only one Microsoft, there was only Black Monday. You may imagine all real w...

Let's be serious, subjective probability influenced by political beliefs is still subjective probability. Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem. Some people (including Carnap himself!) deny the existence of logical probability claiming that all calculations must be based on input probabi...

If it is calculated it is logical probability, neither  frequentist nor subjective. There are four types of probability: logical (Carnap), frequentist ( Mises ), subjective ( Keynes ) and propensity (Popper). There's even a good book on  https://www.amazon.pl/Search-Certainty-Science-Philosophy-Pro...

Erratum. Should be: But in physics, in biology and to some extend in economics it makes sense. Not in finance.

In principle, you're correct if you insist on a strictly frequentist interpretation.  I don't, to be honest I don't like the frequentist interpretation of probability. But in physics, in biology and to some extend in finance it makes sense. Not in finance. But, I am willing to assign probabilities ...

Everything is determined by the option prices and one-extra parameter, [$]\gamma[$], the coefficient of relative risk aversion. You can fix [$]\gamma[$] from an estimator I provide; it's around 3 with say a confidence interval of 2-4. The P-model is then determined from [$]\gamma[$] and the coeffic...

Since no takers yet, here is a problem that is just starting to interest me.  I am interested in it for a  book project  of mine. Here it is in a nutshell. In finance dynamical models, there is "real-world" evolution (P-models) and "risk-neutral" evolution (Q-models). Vanilla op...

There's nothing like mathematical biology, Paul. There's some mathematics loosely inspired by the vocabulary of biology, presumably to get some financing. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2014/12/30/the-two-cultures-of-mathematics-and-biology/ I’m a (50%) professor of mathematics and (50%) profess...

They didn't have any, it's a relatively recent invention. In modern crime stories, the favorite villain is a tech billionaire.