- January 28th, 2023, 10:54 pm
- Forum: Off Topic
- Topic: is twitter for mentally ill people?
- Replies:
**609** - Views:
**108529**

- January 24th, 2023, 10:05 pm
- Forum: Off Topic
- Topic: Russia земля борца самбо
- Replies:
**645** - Views:
**66476**

- January 16th, 2023, 2:35 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

Isn't 'Bayesian' a synonym of 'subjective'?

- January 16th, 2023, 1:33 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

Is there a field of applied statistics where things could go as wrong as they did in mathematical finance? Of course not, and we know the exact reason: electrons are identical, stones are almost identical, bacteria are similar, and even hamsters are not that different. Even more - humans are simil...

- January 15th, 2023, 9:14 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

I forgot trading equity derivatives. But it was long time ago and very boring as far as I remember.

- January 15th, 2023, 6:54 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

I don't think you can sensibly think about (or invest in!) the market without having some idea of what the equity risk premium and volatility have been historically and that requires measuring them. Basic notions like autocorrelation were important in understanding that securities markets are, in s...

- January 15th, 2023, 9:53 am
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

So, your objections to this are? Still the same: Statistics does not work in finance because there are no repeatable experiments, the market mechanism changes over time as some players make money and others lose. There is only one Microsoft, there was only Black Monday. You may imagine all real w...

- January 14th, 2023, 4:49 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

Let's be serious, subjective probability influenced by political beliefs is still subjective probability. Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem. Some people (including Carnap himself!) deny the existence of logical probability claiming that all calculations must be based on input probabi...

- January 14th, 2023, 2:17 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

If it is calculated it is logical probability, neither frequentist nor subjective. There are four types of probability: logical (Carnap), frequentist ( Mises ), subjective ( Keynes ) and propensity (Popper). There's even a good book on https://www.amazon.pl/Search-Certainty-Science-Philosophy-Pro...

- January 13th, 2023, 10:11 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

Erratum. Should be: But in physics, in biology and to some extend in economics it makes sense. Not in finance.

- January 13th, 2023, 9:28 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

In principle, you're correct if you insist on a strictly frequentist interpretation. I don't, to be honest I don't like the frequentist interpretation of probability. But in physics, in biology and to some extend in finance it makes sense. Not in finance. But, I am willing to assign probabilities ...

- January 13th, 2023, 8:35 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

Everything is determined by the option prices and one-extra parameter, [$]\gamma[$], the coefficient of relative risk aversion. You can fix [$]\gamma[$] from an estimator I provide; it's around 3 with say a confidence interval of 2-4. The P-model is then determined from [$]\gamma[$] and the coeffic...

- January 13th, 2023, 5:04 pm
- Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
- Topic: Let me solve your problem
- Replies:
**33** - Views:
**2481**

Since no takers yet, here is a problem that is just starting to interest me. I am interested in it for a book project of mine. Here it is in a nutshell. In finance dynamical models, there is "real-world" evolution (P-models) and "risk-neutral" evolution (Q-models). Vanilla op...

- January 9th, 2023, 7:47 am
- Forum: Technical Forum
- Topic: Is the type of mathematics found in finance limited?
- Replies:
**107** - Views:
**37336**

There's nothing like mathematical biology, Paul. There's some mathematics loosely inspired by the vocabulary of biology, presumably to get some financing. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2014/12/30/the-two-cultures-of-mathematics-and-biology/ I’m a (50%) professor of mathematics and (50%) profess...

- December 30th, 2022, 7:41 pm
- Forum: Off Topic
- Topic: is elon musk for real?
- Replies:
**110** - Views:
**53549**

They didn't have any, it's a relatively recent invention. In modern crime stories, the favorite villain is a tech billionaire.