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by numbersix
October 9th, 2010, 1:47 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Traden4Alpha,As usual, I thank you for your patience and for your long (and always quite captivating) post. I hope you didn't mind the rather abrupt tone of my previous message; I can assure you it was caused by passion (therefore excitement and fulfillment of meaning) not by impatience. I will t...
by numbersix
October 8th, 2010, 8:52 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>crmorcom,I still have to respond on the distinction between identifiable possible states and written contingent claims, which is fundamental for opening the passage in which my whole metaphysics takes place. It is not so much the word "state" that I am questioning as it is the precise operation i...
by numbersix
October 5th, 2010, 6:56 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Traden4Alpha,What "true invariants" of the market (I refuse to call it a "system") are you talking about? Is this a joke? Is it really so hard to stop thinking of the market from the point of view of an engineer who wants to control it somehow (even stochastically)?The job of the market-maker, th...
by numbersix
October 4th, 2010, 11:09 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>crmorcom,You didn't get the point of the article, it seems to me.To me, contingency is best expressed absolutely, i.e. independently of any underlying state, at the expiry of the contingent claim. Why? Because possibility is now dead; there is now but the one and only actualized final world; howe...
by numbersix
September 30th, 2010, 2:07 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>FrenchX,Thank you for your support. There are no limits to philosophy and finance, so don't worry, and there is no beginning either. Thought always starts in the middle. A market-maker always starts in the middle. I hope my book contributes to making this kind of market.I cannot help but share wi...
by numbersix
September 30th, 2010, 12:19 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: crmorcomThe probabilistic utility function framework has many flaws which are well known - Ayache is certainly not the first to point them out - but the advantage that it has is that you can calculate stuff with it. This, so long as you are aware of its pitfalls, is ext...
by numbersix
September 29th, 2010, 1:27 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: crmorcomWhy "should" the market become a pure category of thought? "should" implies it would be somehow "better" if it became so. Why? People find it useful to exchange things. What humans "desperately hold on to" is the ability to get toilet paper or inflation swaps wh...
by numbersix
September 28th, 2010, 1:06 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn Since humans are predictable.You mean, they are boring.I think my real motivation in developing these alternative ideas about the market (that it is writing, that contingency evades the delimitation of states, in a word, that the market should become a pure c...
by numbersix
September 27th, 2010, 8:50 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

QuoteOriginally posted by: Cuchulainn Do you plan to devise a new language so that it really does not matter what the subject is?This really sounds as a meta-language, no? And what is philosophy, if not meta-theory? And what is literary theory, if not meta-textual analysis?
by numbersix
September 27th, 2010, 8:45 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>QuoteOriginally posted by: frenchXFor me the most important in finance is not the models it's the information.In my view, there are no models and no information in the market, but only 1) written contingent claims, 2) their translation through the material medium of the market (which is price) an...
by numbersix
September 27th, 2010, 7:31 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Indeed, why settle for less?You have to imagine my excitement when the idea finished forming itself in my mind that pricing was not a mathematical function after all but a new philosophical concept and that there was, in the market, every sense in which the market-maker is a true writer. Hence th...
by numbersix
September 26th, 2010, 3:30 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Exneratunrisk,What can I say, except that, with the Sydney chapters, you are really getting to the heart of my book and to the real core of my topic! I am glad that we could finally discuss this piece of my most intimate speculative thinking and I thank you. Indeed, the market, derivatives, prici...
by numbersix
September 24th, 2010, 7:49 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>exneratunrisk,Thank you for your comments and for the posts on your weblog. I only wish there were more readers like you!Traden4Alpha,I can assure you that my book is about contingent claims, not about debt. This is clearly stated as early as its opening sentence. I am probably more radical about...
by numbersix
September 24th, 2010, 8:46 am
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Traden4Alpha, I know what your answer is going to be to my previous post. You are going to object that there is definitely probability involved in bond value, the probability of default, the probability of change of the interest rate, the probability of hyperinflation etc. That, in sum -- and of ...
by numbersix
September 23rd, 2010, 3:52 pm
Forum: Book And Research Paper Forum
Topic: New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache
Replies: 284
Views: 107871

New Book - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

<t>Traden4Alpha,My apologies; apparently, it wasn't clear what I meant by "exchange". Of course any contract (be it a recognition of debt or a written contingent claim) involves two parties agreeing to the terms of the deal. Of course, they exchange the contract. However, by "exchange" I mean the ma...
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