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Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 2nd, 2015, 2:47 pm
by Traden4Alpha
You are totally right about more and more companies simply using other providers' software and data. Why reinvent the wheel (or the map) if someone else has collected all the data and is managing the ongoing process of maintaining the quality of that data. It's going to be interesting to see who ends up being the provider of all these data-related services. Not everyone is happy using Google. That's why Apple switched to getting map & nav data from TomTom and Uber was bidding billions on buying Navitec from Nokia. Neither company wants to be dependent on Google or let Google totally control that space.I'm a bit skeptical of cars being the new PCs because it seems more like the locus of control and decision making would be embodied in the person who gets in the car and sets the destination. The car is really just another thin client under the control of the user. Apple is trying to make hand-offs of a person's contextual state as seamless as possible so that a person might start an email on their iPad at home, continue composing it on their iPhone as they walk to the train station or drive to work, then finish and send from their Mac at work. Or, when an email comes to the person, it automatically shows up on whichever device they are using. No doubt, Google is working on the same. I think the car would be just one more host for the user's virtual workspace.You are right about the Mercedes example -- the car maker does not have the information technology experience to do the data side of information-enabled physical mobility. Yet Mercedes does know how to handle the physical-industrial-retail side of designing a car, getting suppliers for all the parts, building cars, and selling them to the public. What's interesting is that Google doesn't know the physical side of product manufacturing -- Google creates the software (e.g., Android, Chrome OS, etc.) and licenses it to Samsung, LG, Acer, HP, etc. who design, source, manufacture, and sell the phones, tablets, and laptops. What extremely interesting is that Apple embodies both the data and the physical side of making technological products. Tim Cook is a manufacturing guy and the company clearly knows how to run a high-volume, global manufacturing and distribution system. Apple (unlike Google) also knows how to do retail.And then there's Amazon. They have deep experience in both the back-end data systems and the front-end retail. They are working on the distribution and last-mile delivery issues. But they are weak in the hardware/manufacturing area.

Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 2nd, 2015, 4:07 pm
by Cuchulainn
QuoteThat's why Apple switched to getting map & nav data from TomTom tomtom does not work in Puglia.

Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 2nd, 2015, 4:39 pm
by Traden4Alpha
QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteThat's why Apple switched to getting map & nav data from TomTom tomtom does not work in Puglia.That's intentional. It's not a bad place to get lost in.

Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 8th, 2015, 11:11 am
by exneratunrisk
2030? Maybe SW that does not only help us solving problems, but help us get save through the difficult stories of our life: phases in which we stumble into incidents, where we need to manage progressive conflicts, even a climax, where only the best bad decision is possible, a crisis---and where a (re)solution in "the last second" is vital? Or the other way around help us planning the great stories of our lives?? I believe, the adequate programming style is functional for programming in a bottom-up fashion---add functions to build up your language to the story (re)solution---I recall Marco Carreira who's programs usually played the game when a brainteaser was about games.Some may call it contextual technology?

Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 8th, 2015, 12:13 pm
by Cuchulainn
QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteThat's why Apple switched to getting map & nav data from TomTom tomtom does not work in Puglia.That's intentional. It's not a bad place to get lost in.Indeed. We got lost off the beaten track in a field of olive trees.

Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 8th, 2015, 12:23 pm
by micha12
I am sure the Wilmott forum will have the same old-fashioned design in 2030 :)

Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: June 8th, 2015, 6:50 pm
by Cuchulainn
QuoteOriginally posted by: micha12I am sure the Wilmott forum will have the same old-fashioned design in 2030 :)A new version will be needed before then because ppauper's post (Wilmott OT hero) count will be 2147483647 + 1.

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: September 4th, 2018, 4:16 pm
by Cuchulainn
Die hard APL programmers still exist, especially in physics or math labs where very complicated algorithms are being done.

Outside the AI world, LISP has not been very successful.

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: September 5th, 2018, 6:43 pm
by Alan
Based on what we know today (Sept, 2018), I predict by 2030 that 50+% of all software development will be directed toward autonomous systems, mostly cars, but similar AI-type stuff for other industries as well. 

Why? Because self-driving cars/trucks is (i) a hugely desirable game changer that in 2018 is (ii) clearly very hard-but-doable. By "self-driving", I am talking about Level 5 car automation for those who know the lingo.

The result will be as big as the spread of the Internet from a niche military project (US DARPA) to general civilian use. Coincidentally, it was again DARPA who largely kicked off the serious mobility race, certainly in the US. In both cases, it was driven by a military need. Background:  DARPA Grand Challenge

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: September 6th, 2018, 3:42 pm
by Cuchulainn
I think that it is good that DARPA gets involved. Like when all those propriety network systems became standardised (at one stage I was network manager with XNS,DecNet,  Lan manager, AppelNet, NetBios and TCP). Then there was 1 standard TCP./IP.

And hopefully fundamental research will improve 

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: September 6th, 2018, 4:19 pm
by Alan
Me too. And, it was cheap too: only $20-30 million or so cost to the gov't for all the Grand Challenge stuff, kick-starting what could become a trillion+ dollar segment of the economy ..  

Also, it's interesting to ponder how frequently military needs spur innovation: nuclear energy, rocketry/jet propulsion, internet, self-driving cars, etc.
:D

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: November 8th, 2018, 8:27 pm
by Cuchulainn
As more and more people drank the Kool-Aid, and Scrum became mainstream, many teams adopted the dogma without the principles. They treated Scrum as a rigid process in and of itself, rather than an approach to developing a process that works for the team. Many teams have adopted Scrum as a way to measure and maximize productivity, effectively turning software development into an assembly line process. I like to call this the Mini-Waterfall model. By focusing all of your energy on estimation, burn-down charts, and velocity, while ignoring the first principles of reflection, experimentation, and continuous improvement, you have effectively become the opposite of agile.

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: November 11th, 2018, 8:41 pm
by Cuchulainn
Of course you build in Python, yes you do. We too are modern people, but you’re in an IT Department now. You can’t just use the latest versions or the package you want, because security and because two years ago a developer who was part of an OSS development made it structural to the inhouse systems then quit and the project has no support. You are now a legacy Python programmer at 26. Welcome to the team.

Dominic Connor

Re: Fifteen years from now: can you predict the Software Landscape in anno 2030?

Posted: November 11th, 2018, 8:44 pm
by Cuchulainn
Of course you build in Python, yes you do. We too are modern people, but you’re in an IT Department now. You can’t just use the latest versions or the package you want, because security and because two years ago a developer who was part of an OSS development made it structural to the inhouse systems then quit and the project has no support. You are now a legacy Python programmer at 26. Welcome to the team.

But you’re learning, right? What the nice HR people didn't mention is that the training they're going to give you is actually a crash course in VBA so you can bludgeon your outputs into Excel, because in a bank if it doesn’t appear in a spreadsheet it doesn’t exist. Oh yes, and you will soon know too that C++ will never die.

Dominic Connor