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ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 8th, 2016, 9:49 pm

This is the first election I have heard about 'vote swapping' -- just not paying attention before, I guess. One's first reaction is "is that legal?", but apparently it has  been blessed by a federal court of appeal as a first amendment right. So, for example, a Libertarian party supporter in Florida (a highly contested state), will agree with a Clinton supporter in California (an uncontested state) to vote as the other person would. Basically, electoral college arbitrage. I can hear the "Whiny Little Bitch" already, as Bill Maher affectionately calls him.  Did I swap mine? No.
I'm surprised it's legal also, you're exchanging your vote for consideration.
I've heard of it before. You've got to trust the other person. What's stopping the florida libertarian from going ahead and voting libertarian anyway, despite the deal, or swapping his vote with 20 people,
 
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ppauper
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Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 8th, 2016, 9:50 pm

 Are you a punch-card counties, or coming from optical-scan counties?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAhOJ1dLviQ
a vote for Tump is a vote for clinton
 
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trackstar
Posts: 27445
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 11:47 am


Fingers crossed - if anyone wants to bet, I will say Hilary by 51.4 percent or more.
a  non-money bet, and I'll take Trump with less than 50.0 per cent
I will own it - I was way off. And here is a song for pauper; the post-election theme song. In fact, why not enjoy the whole album?  Dedicated to DJT who has known Some Girls in his time.  :D
 
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outrun
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Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 11:55 am

Next up: Californexit. We Dutch should give refuge to Silicon Valley
 
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ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 12:33 pm

Next up: Californexit. We Dutch should give refuge to Silicon Valley
it's no secret that mexicans want back the lands they lost in the 19th century,
La Raza and the Reconquista
Image
 
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outrun
Posts: 4573
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 12:46 pm

The land has little value, I wouldn't make a big deal out of it. It's the Silicon Valley culture of entrepreneurship, creativity and tolerance that has value... It's the 6th economy of the world, 2/3 voted against Trump.
 
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Alan
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Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 3:07 pm

This is the first election I have heard about 'vote swapping' -- just not paying attention before, I guess. One's first reaction is "is that legal?", but apparently it has  been blessed by a federal court of appeal as a first amendment right. So, for example, a Libertarian party supporter in Florida (a highly contested state), will agree with a Clinton supporter in California (an uncontested state) to vote as the other person would. Basically, electoral college arbitrage. I can hear the "Whiny Little Bitch" already, as Bill Maher affectionately calls him.  Did I swap mine? No.
I'm surprised it's legal also, you're exchanging your vote for consideration.
I've heard of it before. You've got to trust the other person. What's stopping the florida libertarian from going ahead and voting libertarian anyway, despite the deal, or swapping his vote with 20 people,
Well, it's all moot now. I blame ppauper. :D
 
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Traden4Alpha
Posts: 23951
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 3:31 pm

This is the first election I have heard about 'vote swapping' -- just not paying attention before, I guess. One's first reaction is "is that legal?", but apparently it has  been blessed by a federal court of appeal as a first amendment right. So, for example, a Libertarian party supporter in Florida (a highly contested state), will agree with a Clinton supporter in California (an uncontested state) to vote as the other person would. Basically, electoral college arbitrage. I can hear the "Whiny Little Bitch" already, as Bill Maher affectionately calls him.  Did I swap mine? No.
I'm surprised it's legal also, you're exchanging your vote for consideration.
I've heard of it before. You've got to trust the other person. What's stopping the florida libertarian from going ahead and voting libertarian anyway, despite the deal, or swapping his vote with 20 people,
Well, it's all moot now. I blame ppauper. :D
I blame the Democrats for nominating a horrible candidate that could not beat an idiot nutter like Trump -- it clearly took stratospheric levels of clueless incompetence.
 
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ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 3:57 pm

This is the first election I have heard about 'vote swapping' -- just not paying attention before, I guess. One's first reaction is "is that legal?", but apparently it has  been blessed by a federal court of appeal as a first amendment right. So, for example, a Libertarian party supporter in Florida (a highly contested state), will agree with a Clinton supporter in California (an uncontested state) to vote as the other person would. Basically, electoral college arbitrage. I can hear the "Whiny Little Bitch" already, as Bill Maher affectionately calls him.  Did I swap mine? No.
I'm surprised it's legal also, you're exchanging your vote for consideration.
I've heard of it before. You've got to trust the other person. What's stopping the florida libertarian from going ahead and voting libertarian anyway, despite the deal, or swapping his vote with 20 people,
Well, it's all moot now. I blame ppauper. :D
lol, I wish I could take credit for Trump's win, but I had nothing to do with it
You can credit Trump himself, and Newt Gingrich, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz, all of whom sent me emails before and during the election, Dr Carson of course for boosting the black vote and Milo (the dangerous faggot) for helping with the gay vote, and the "alternative media", Alex Jones who together with Roger Stone came up with the Bill Clinton Rape T-shirt, Drudge, Breitbart, gateway pundit, american mirror, Rush, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, Mark Levin, and countless others.
This was probably the first election where, for one side at least, alternative media played a bigger role than the networks amd newspapers

The polls were all over the place, and (as discussed in the podesta emails) several polling organizations were deliberately oversampling various groups to make it look like hillary had a huge lead, which they did in coordination with the clinton campaign
Other polls (rasmussen, ibd, la times)  showed that it was actually a horse-race, but the mainstream media ignored those.
 
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Collector
Posts: 4685
Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 6:08 pm

is there after election Polls, asking how many claim they voted on each candidate? Are the after polls less biased than before polls?

I would think less biased, more likely people admit they voted on the winning team. 

how many Clinton voters will claim they voted Trump
how many Trump voters will claim they voted Clinton
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 10790
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 6:36 pm

is there after election Polls, asking how many claim they voted on each candidate? Are the after polls less biased than before polls?

I would think less biased, more likely people admit they voted on the winning team. 

how many Clinton voters will claim they voted Trump
how many Trump voters will claim they voted Clinton
One of Clinton's many mistakes was directly insulting potential Trump voters. This resulted in a) people not admitting to wanting to vote for Trump and b) causing them to be even more keen to turn out.

At least Trump only directly insulted the relatives of voters!

P
 
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katastrofa
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Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 9:18 pm

I think this was one of Trump's chief selling points. I liked how she accentuated her foreign accent during the campaign to appeal to ethnic minorities and tune down his racist tone (not a trace of it in older interviews). Besides, she's stunning - who wouldn't prefer to see more of her for the next four years rather than this old perv Bill.
 
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EBal
Posts: 431
Joined: May 20th, 2005, 1:30 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 9:49 pm

I'm surprised it's legal also, you're exchanging your vote for consideration.
I've heard of it before. You've got to trust the other person. What's stopping the florida libertarian from going ahead and voting libertarian anyway, despite the deal, or swapping his vote with 20 people,
Well, it's all moot now. I blame ppauper. :D
I blame the Democrats for nominating a horrible candidate that could not beat an idiot nutter like Trump -- it clearly took stratospheric levels of clueless incompetence.
Don't forget that the "idiot nutter" easily beat two dozen others, the list that included congressmen, businessmen, senators, governors and even a surgeon. I do not think it is incompetence, the nutter obviously had a strong appeal to certain parts of electorate and perhaps she was not a bad person to deal with him. A large part of the blame goes to the press that couldn't stop talking about trivial issues for one candidate (just innuendo basically - nothing ever turned up) and just skipped things from the other that would previously disqualify any politician forever. The idiotic assumption that the candidates were symmetric did not do Clinton any favors.
 
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ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 11:12 pm

A large part of the blame goes to the press that couldn't stop talking about trivial issues for one candidate (just innuendo basically - nothing ever turned up) and just skipped things from the other that would previously disqualify any politician forever.
You can blame the collusion between the Clinton campaign and the media (as seen in the podesta emails) for that.
The clinton campaign tested various perceived weaknesses of clinton with focus groups (again, podesta emails).
They then used a classic radical strategy (Lenin/Saul Alinksy),
Accuse your opponent of what you are guilty of to create confusion, cloud the issue, and inoculate voters against any evidence of your guilt.
Hillary had a problem with the pay to play scandal at their fake charity, the Clinton Foundation. Solution: have the press talk about the Trump Foundation buying a portrait at a charity auction.
Hillary had a problem with her ties to dictators in the pay to play scandal at state. Solution: have the press tie Trump to Putin
And so on.
As you say, the media skipped things from clinton that would previously disqualify any politician forever while focusing on trivial issues for Trump (just innuendo basically - nothing ever turned up)
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: 2016 US Election forecasting

November 9th, 2016, 11:49 pm

I think this was one of Trump's chief selling points. I liked how she accentuated her foreign accent during the campaign to appeal to ethnic minorities and tune down his racist tone (not a trace of it in older interviews). Besides, she's stunning - who wouldn't prefer to see more of her for the next four years rather than this old perv Bill.
But can she spar? 3 minutes in the ring?

I prefer blue eyes, black (or red) hair.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
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