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bearish
Posts: 3773
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 2:48 am

Keep on riding this horse! You couldn't be more wrong, which is great! Florence may offer Trump more opportunity to lie about how wonderful he is, while US citizens die left and right, because he stole FEMA money to send to ICE to do more damage.
 
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Paul
Posts: 8624
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 5:25 am

I expect that the statistically estimated number was not an integer. Someone decided to make it an integer to make it look more real, then rounded up or down. I find that more interesting.
 
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bearish
Posts: 3773
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 11:00 am

I expect that the statistically estimated number was not an integer. Someone decided to make it an integer to make it look more real, then rounded up or down. I find that more interesting.
Given the devastation and chaos on the island that FEMA abandoned, 3000 +/- a few hundred feels about like the proper precision level. 
 
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ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 11:57 am

the method used to conjure up the new, higher death count for the Puerto Rico hurricanes took "more expansive views of mortality both in disaster impact and disaster time than any previous storm."

wiki lists the death from Sandy in the US in 1992 as 157 (71 direct and 85 "indirect," which the links describe:
At  least  87  deaths,  an  even  greater  number  than  for  direct  deaths,  were  indirectly  associated  with  Sandy  or  its  remnants  in  the  United  States.    About  50  of  these  deaths  were  the  result  of  extended  power  outages
 during  cold  weather,  which  led  to  deaths  from  hypothermia,  falls  in  the  dark  by  senior  citizens,  or  carbon  monoxide  poisoning  from  improperly  placed  generators  or  cooking  devices.    The  remaining  deaths  were  mostly  from  storm  cleanup  efforts,  including removing falling trees, and car accidents.
(my note: in the wiki table, 87 is the total number of indirect deaths: 85 in the US, 1 in Canada,  1 in Jamaica)

If you say 2,975 were killed in Puerto Rico versus 157 from Sandy, you're not comparing like-with-like, because the increased mortality is included in one number (Puerto Rico) but not the other.

The accurate comparison would be 64 for Puerto Rico versus 157 for Sandy.

Or work out the increased mortality associated with Sandy and compare that to the 2,975 in Puerto Rico.

How would people view Obama's handling of Sandy if they were told 1,372 people died in NJ rather than 157 total in the US?

If you use the figures from here:
Hurricane Sandy (New Jersey): Mortality Rates in the Following Month and Quarter
We found a 6% increase in 1-month and 7% increase in 3-month all-cause mortality after Hurricane Sandy.
(snip)
Figure 1 illustrates monthly New Jersey all-cause mortality from 2008 to 2013. For the Sandy month, all-cause mortality was
875 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 813,941) per 100 000 person-years with an adjusted RR of 1.06 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.11; P= .006) and for the Sandy quarter was 932 (95% CI = 869, 1000) per 100 000 person-years with an adjusted RR of 1.07 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.10; P <.001).
Population of NJ is 9 million,
9 million for a quarter gives 20,970 if the mortality rate was 932 per 100,000 person years
excess was 7% or 1,372
 
User avatar
rmax
Posts: 5976
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 1:26 pm

People died, can the response to disasters be better? Is there mismanagement or corruption. Not everything should be political point scoring.
 
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ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 1:46 pm

People died, can the response to disasters be better? Is there mismanagement or corruption. Not everything should be political point scoring.
exactly
 
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ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

September 14th, 2018, 1:53 pm

wapo june 2018: Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.

if you look at the excess mortality the way I did for Sandy, you get a death toll of about 1,000 for Puerto Rico
The Times’s analysis found that in the 42 days after Hurricane Maria made landfall on Sept. 20 as a Category 4 storm, 1,052 more people than usual died across the island. The analysis compared the number of deaths for each day in 2017 with the average of the number of deaths for the same days in 2015 and 2016.
the harvard researchers didn't use official data, they interviewed a small number of people and extrapolated.

I don't care what method you use to calculate hurricane deaths as long as you are consistent.
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

September 15th, 2018, 6:05 am

this was in the NC thread, about Hurricane Florence

 
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ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

September 15th, 2018, 6:50 am


 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 57041
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: Fake news

September 22nd, 2018, 2:02 pm

For hi-fidelity fake news, here is a good place to start

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breitbart_News
 
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ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

September 27th, 2018, 5:33 am

'Our bad': BBC accused of fake news after it misheard Donald Trump declare war

from the bbc's twitter account, which it took the BBC 20 hours to correct,
Image

according to the BBC,
“Donald Trump tells UN General Assembly ‘war will follow’ after his decision to re-impose sanctions on Iran, who he accuses of ‘slaughter in Syria and Yemen.'
what the president actually said was, "MORE will follow"
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 8624
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Fake news

September 27th, 2018, 7:24 am

Somebody should be fired for that.

BBC hear “Somebody should be hired for that.”
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

October 14th, 2018, 8:35 pm

 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

October 21st, 2018, 10:45 am

 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 69059
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: Fake news

October 23rd, 2018, 5:44 am

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