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Paul
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 27th, 2020, 11:29 pm

It's the self employed with young children that I feel sorry for.

Damn, that's me.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 27th, 2020, 11:58 pm

As the evolutionary biologist Rob Wallace explains:

Growing genetic monocultures of domestic animals removes whatever immune firebreaks may be available to slow down transmission. Larger population sizes and densities facilitate greater rates of transmission. Such crowded conditions depress immune response. High throughput, a part of any industrial production, provides a continually renewed supply of susceptibles, the fuel for the evolution of virulence.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Paul
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 12:38 am

Ventilator advice, please.

1. Hair dryer

2. Leaf blower

3. Small child + bicycle + old-fashioned bellows
 
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katastrofa
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Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 12:45 am

I bought Philips oxygen concentrator when it was all starting. It possibly gives me a slightly higher chance of recovering from pneumonia.
 
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Paul
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 12:59 am

I bought Philips oxygen concentrator when it was all starting. It possibly gives me a slightly higher chance of recovering from pneumonia.
That was smart. I'm beginning to think my days on Pornhub were wasted.
 
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trackstar
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Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 1:03 am

Ventilator advice, please.

1. Hair dryer

2. Leaf blower

3. Small child + bicycle + old-fashioned bellows
4. Pulse oximeter, oxygen tank(s) with piece of plastic tubing, sturdy plastic bag, duct tape, cloth ties to gently fasten bag over your head and around your neck. Ideally you would have a foot pedal mechanism where you could push a bit more oxygen yourself as needed. Otherwise you'd need someone else to dial it up or down for you. 

I do know the oxygen tank system quite well - you can get up to 8 liters per minute in home environment, but don't light any candles nearby! You can get up to 15 liters per minute from some tanks - normally in hospital but maybe some on shadow market these days. Even 2 liters per minute is a pretty good hit for such things as moderate COPD, just to give you a benchmark. (Not me, just so no one jumps to conclusions!)

Alternatively, start taking your sports car apart and seeing what can be adapted.  All of the automakers are trying to retool - what they do have is tubing, compressors of a certain type, and O2 sensors, especially fine tuned ones in high performance vehicles, I would think.

But if you are really feeling hot and breathless, maybe turn the Hub off for a little while?  Too much of a good thing.... 
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 12:23 pm

Enter Mr. Taleb et al

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... l_Path.pdf

Clearly, we are dealing with an extreme fat-tailed process owing to an increased connectivity, which increases the spreading in a nonlinear way [1], [2]. Fat tailed processes have special attributes, mak

Never use words like 'obviously' etc. It's begging the question.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 4:54 pm

Where can we find real-time, actual (not estimated) death stats for all causes? Just because of the "died from" vs "died with" debate.
 
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Paul
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 5:19 pm

South Korea:

COVID-19
Cases = 10,000
Tests = 500,000 (my estimate)
2% of people have the virus
Population = 50,000,000
Possible number of cases = 0.02 x 50,000,000 = 1,000,000

All causes of death
Deaths per day all causes = 800 https://www.statista.com/statistics/621091/south-korea-total-death-rate/
Deaths "with" coronavirus per day = 0.02 x 800 = 16
Deaths "from" coronavirus per day = 8 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Need to know "with" and "from"! I.e. the additional deaths. But I am struggling to find real-time death numbers for anything but coronavirus.

Apologies if numbers or calculations etc. wrong, all a bit rushed! Got to buy provisions!
 
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trackstar
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Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 7:18 pm

New test device announced by Abbott Labs - the size of a toaster - delivers positive results in 5 minutes, negative results in 13 minutes. Will go out to clinics next week.

Can’t say anything about accuracy, but at least R&D efforts and production are moving fast.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2932766001
 
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Alan
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Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 11:38 pm

New test device announced by Abbott Labs - the size of a toaster - delivers positive results in 5 minutes, negative results in 13 minutes. Will go out to clinics next week.

Can’t say anything about accuracy, but at least R&D efforts and production are moving fast.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2932766001
Great news. I can kind of see where we're going with this. I wonder if, to fly next year in the US, you must bring your:

1) Real ID, and
2) your negative corona virus test certificate.

The problem with 2), though, is what about people who got it and recovered? Do they wear the scarlet letter forever (light up these tests positive?).
Or, got it, and were always asymptomatic -- let's say longer than 14 days?
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 28th, 2020, 11:56 pm

I said this weeks ago that we’ll all get stamps in our passports. Even longer queues at the DMV/State ID. The US does love paperwork!
 
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Cuchulainn
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Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 29th, 2020, 8:07 am

I said this weeks ago that we’ll all get stamps in our passports. Even longer queues at the DMV/State ID. The US does love paperwork!
Image
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Paul
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Posts: 11049
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 29th, 2020, 9:08 am

Apparently they are now doing this in Germany. Why I am not PM of the UK has always been a mystery to me.
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 29th, 2020, 10:59 pm

How I hate all the people being interviewed for TV while at home...everyone is in front of their enormous bookshelves. Ok, you're smart/privileged. Got it. Get over it.

What would you have as background?
I have PW Vols 1-3 and Collector on one 'background' (5 bookshelves in total). And I threw out 300 books last week, serious.
I am sick of the bookshelf backdrops. In a time of crisis we are supposed to take seriously people with so little imagination?

If I had to be in front of bookshelves I would stock it with my collection of sex manuals. It's very big. And so is the collection.

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